Inflation Helped Most Indebted Eurozone Budgetary Positions Improve

With all the doom and gloom headlines you maybe somewhat surprised to find out there have been huge improvements in budgetary positions in many European nations. More significantly the biggest debtor nations have seen the biggest improvements. Why? Inflation is adding more to revenues than it is to spending, this is reducing debt-to-national-income ratios by both lowering debt and by boosting (nominal) income. Europe was affected by the Russian gas supply cut; however, it could have been much worse. The … Continue reading “Inflation Helped Most Indebted Eurozone Budgetary Positions Improve”

UK PMI Shows Inflation Pressures at 16 Month Low but Uncertainty Hinders Employment

The UK manufacturing and service sectors contracted for a fifth month in December S&P Global flash PMI indices show. We continue to see mostly milder contractions but ongoing contractions, nonetheless. British companies cut staff for the first time since the COVID lockdowns of early-2021 with excess operating capacity developing relative to order book growth. Supplier delivery delays indicated the imbalance of supply and demand seen during the height of the COVID-19 crisis is now reversing. This shift saw Inflationary pressures … Continue reading “UK PMI Shows Inflation Pressures at 16 Month Low but Uncertainty Hinders Employment”

European PMI Shows Manufacturing and Services Improvement but Still in Contraction

European countries manufacturing and service sectors PMIs in December saw mostly improvements but nothing exciting S&P Global flash indices show. We continue to see mostly milder contractions but ongoing contractions, nonetheless. With ongoing aggressive ECB rate hikes 2023 faces further downside across these metrics that still are not reflecting a fraction of the lagging impact of tightened monetary policy. The S&P Global Eurozone Composite flash PMI® rose by one full point to 48.8 (47.9 consensus). Both the services (49.1, 48.5 … Continue reading “European PMI Shows Manufacturing and Services Improvement but Still in Contraction”

France Manufacturing and Services PMI Shows Deepening Downturn

The French flash French composite PMI slipped from 48.7 to 48.0 to signal a second consecutive monthly drop in output and the largest decline since November 2014 if the pandemic is excluded. France saw the steepest fall in its service sector activity for 22 months. There was a softening of the manufacturing downturn at the same time. With ongoing aggressive ECB rate hikes 2023 faces further downside across these metrics that still are not reflecting a fraction of the lagging … Continue reading “France Manufacturing and Services PMI Shows Deepening Downturn”

Corn Futures Steady as Harvest Season Winds Down

Corn prices corn prices down just 0.66% as harvest winds down and farmer selling slows.  The European Commission reduced their corn crop outlook by another 600k MT to 54.9 MMT to 25% lower yr/yr with imports 1 MMT higher to 22 MMT. The summer’s historic heat wave has crushed the crop from France to Ukraine. Mexico’s agriculture ministry has indicated that the country’s 2014 ban on genetically modified corn would not be amended. Mexico’s U.S. imports could be cut in … Continue reading “Corn Futures Steady as Harvest Season Winds Down”

Corn Futures Largely Steady with French Crop 92% Harvested

Corn prices corn prices rallied back Friday with some relief from the big reversal in stocks and the dollar to finish the week down 0.91%. The ethanol market is not signaling the need for enlarged production with current stocks filling demand. Gasoline consumption has failed to match year-ago levels since mid-summer. DDGS cash prices were mostly $5 to $15/ton lower from $210 (IN) to $340 (MO) regionally. The June 30 Acreage report showed corn again the largest crop produced in America … Continue reading “Corn Futures Largely Steady with French Crop 92% Harvested”

Corn Futures Higher Ahead of WASDE Report from USDA

Corn prices corn prices rallied back Friday over 1.0% to finish the week up 0.81% ahead of the next WASDE report from USDA,. December futures trended 7.5 cents higher to $6.83, with March futures up 7.25 cents to $6.9050. French farm office FranceAgriMer reports that 67% of the country’s corn harvest is now complete, up from 51% a week ago and well ahead of 2021’s pace of 6%. The ethanol market is not signaling the need for enlarged production with … Continue reading “Corn Futures Higher Ahead of WASDE Report from USDA”

Corn Futures Supported by Lower Stocks and Production Among Black Sea Disruption

Corn prices corn prices rallied back Friday 1.25% to finish the week largely unchanged.  USDA reported corn stocks were 1.377 bbu on September 1st, well below the average trade estimate. USDA also revised 21/22 production 41 mbu lower to 15.074 bbu. That was exclusively through WCB revisions. Black Sea supply concerns from Putin’s annexation of regions of Ukraine threatens to export balances. The ethanol market is not signaling the need for enlarged production with current stocks filling demand. Gasoline consumption … Continue reading “Corn Futures Supported by Lower Stocks and Production Among Black Sea Disruption”

Corn Futures Balance Between Soft Ethanol Demand and Black Sea Disruption Threats

Corn prices saw modest losses for the week 0.33%.  Black Sea supply concerns from Putin’s mobilization of more Russian troops and threats to exports balances out with insipid export demand and soft energy markets. The ethanol market is not signaling the need for enlarged production with current stocks filling demand. Gasoline consumption has failed to match year-ago levels since mid-summer. The June 30 Acreage report showed corn again the largest crop produced in America in 2022. USDA raised 2022 acreage expectations for … Continue reading “Corn Futures Balance Between Soft Ethanol Demand and Black Sea Disruption Threats”

Corn Futures Adjusting to Production Downgrades from Europe and Argentina

Corn prices saw modest gains of around 0.25% Friday, putting corn down for the week 0.84%. Monday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from USDA concluded the U.S. ending stocks estimates were neutral for corn. The world ending stocks estimates were seen as moderately bearish for corn. The USDA cut corn production 415 million bushels (mb) to 13.94 billion bushels (bb). Coceral made “significant downward revisions” in France, Germany, Italy, Hungary and Romania. Argentina is also facing drought conditions. … Continue reading “Corn Futures Adjusting to Production Downgrades from Europe and Argentina”