US Producer Prices Came in Hot in January, Following Consumer Prices

The U.S. Producer Price Index for final demand in January came in hotter than expected as did CPI earlier in the week and put a spanner in the disinflation view. The Fed will see it as a reason to remain patient with respect to cutting rates. PPI was up 0.3% month-over-month in January 2024, the biggest increase in five months, following a 0.1% decline in December and higher than forecasts of 0.1%. Cost of services rose 0.6%, the largest increase … Continue reading “US Producer Prices Came in Hot in January, Following Consumer Prices”

Core Inflation Rose More Than Expected Again in January, Fed Hawkish Rhetoric Justified

Consumer prices continue prove to be sticky in the US, core CPI continues to run hot. The Fed favors the core metric as a better gauge of inflation trends. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.4% month-over-month (consensus 0.3%) after increasing 0.3% in December. Shelter prices, which make up about a third of the overall CPI index jumped 0.6%, accounting for more than two thirds of the overall increase. On a year-over-year basis core CPI was up … Continue reading “Core Inflation Rose More Than Expected Again in January, Fed Hawkish Rhetoric Justified”

Focus on Powell, Fed Loan Survey and RBA Interest Rate

The week was surprised by a more hawkish Federal Reserve chair this week over rate guidance and QT parameters though it barely reduced punts for rate cuts at future meetings. We get more from the Fed this week with a Powell 60 minutes interview and the Fed’s loan survey to inform on credit tightening. Also ahead is ECB inflation expectations and monetary policy decisions from Banxico, Peru, RBA, Poland. India and Thailand. There were no surprises last week from the … Continue reading “Focus on Powell, Fed Loan Survey and RBA Interest Rate”

Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus Fed, BOE, Riksbank Amid Irrational Exuberance

The coming week brings out meetings with the Federal Reserve mulling over rate guidance and QT parameters. Nothing is expected from that statement-only outcome and markets have reduced punts for rate cuts at the March 20th and May 1st meetings. We also have the Bank of England, Riksbank, Hungary and several LatAm central banks, Brazil, Chile and Columbia. They are confronted by a new round of developments such as the shipping crisis in the Middle East that injects further uncertainty … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus Fed, BOE, Riksbank Amid Irrational Exuberance”

Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus BoJ, BoC, Norges, Turkey and ECB

It’s been a quiet start to the year for central bankers, the coming week brings them out confronted by a new round of developments such as the shipping crisis in the Middle East that injects further uncertainty into their plans. We have decisions from Bank of Japan (Tuesday), Bank of Canada, Bank Negara Malaysia (Wednesday), Norges Bank, South African Reserve Bank, Central Bank of Turkey and the European Central Bank (Thursday). Then we have the January 31st FOMC meeting and … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus BoJ, BoC, Norges, Turkey and ECB”

Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus China, Lagarde, Indonesia and Biege Book

Quiet start to the year for central bankers, National Bank of Poland, Central Reserve Bank of Peru and Bank of Korea decisions all as expected. We did get a hotter CPI print before the January 31st FOMC meeting and with those expectations for the Fed’s preferred PCE measure of inflation on January 26th. Nothing is expected from that statement-only outcome and markets have reduced punts for rate cuts at the March 20th and May 1st meetings. Ahead this week we … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus China, Lagarde, Indonesia and Biege Book”

Consumer Inflation in December Rises Most in Three Months

Consumer prices have been proving sticky in the US, accelerating the most in three months in December. The CPI increased 3.4% in the year through December. On a monthly basis, it also rose by more than forecast, up 0.3%, the most in three months and above forecasts of 0.2%. The CPI core, excluding food and energy rose 0.3% in December from a month earlier and on an annual basis increased 3.9%. The Fed favors the core metric as a better … Continue reading “Consumer Inflation in December Rises Most in Three Months”

Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on Final CPI Before January 31st FOMC

No surprise with the FOMC minutes as expected though they did the expand rate cut dialogue to remind it isn’t over yet for ates, possibly. For the Fed Thursday brings the final CPI print before the January 31st FOMC meeting and with those expectations for the Fed’s preferred PCE measure of inflation on January 26th. Nothing is expected from that statement-only outcome and markets have reduced punts for rate cuts at the March 20th and May 1st meetings. We also … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on Final CPI Before January 31st FOMC”

Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on Fed Minutes Looking for Clues on Rate Cuts

With the Christmas and New Year’s holidays it’s a very quiet time for Central Banks with no surprises from the BoJ Summary of Opinions and Minutes from the Bank of Korea and Reserve Bank of India. In the New Year it all begins again FOMC minutes to expand on rate cut dialogue with memories of last year’s first Fed meeting that started the rise in rates and sell off in equity markets from record highs still fresh. FOMC Member Barkin … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on Fed Minutes Looking for Clues on Rate Cuts”

Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on BoJ, BoK and RBI Minutes and Opinions

A predictable past week of central bank action, Japan’s BoJ, Columbia’s BanRep, Banco Central de Chile, Hungary’s Central Bank, Bank Indonesia and Central Bank of Turkey all pretty much went to plan. We had big macro numbers that also stayed around consensus including US core PCE, UK core CPI, Japan’s CPI post-BoJ, NZ to issue a mid-year fiscal update and Canadian core CPI. With the Christmas Holidays it’s a very quiet time for Central Banks with just the BoJ Summary … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on BoJ, BoK and RBI Minutes and Opinions”