March 5-11, 2023 FEAR NOT Brave Investors Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community… The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead? Contents Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section. Editorial The bond market is directing traffic, clear as day if you want to sit back and watch with open eyes. Further to that the 2/10 Treasury and Bund spreads are the fuses within. A wonderful … Continue reading “Traders Market Weekly: A Wonderful Life for Central Bankers”
German 10-Year Bunds at Weakest Level since July 2011 as Yield Curve Inversion Deepens
Germany’s benchmark 10-year Bund yield closed Friday just off its weakest level since July 2011. Yields pulled back, mimicking the move in US Treasuries, to 2.688% after touching 2.77% yesterday, which was the highest-level yield since July 2011. The level is major support, (-2/8 Murrey Math). The 10 Years vs 2 Years bond spread is -51.4 bp. We have come a long way from about -0.1% at the beginning of 2022. Bond traders on Friday weighed dovish comments by the … Continue reading “German 10-Year Bunds at Weakest Level since July 2011 as Yield Curve Inversion Deepens”
Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – Unsettled Waters with Powell and US Jobs Ahead
This week we saw a continuation of the selloff in bonds that started with the stronger than expected data a month ago, specifically in jobs, inflation and services demand. Benchmark US Ten-year Treasury yields traded as high as 4.09% this week, the highest since November 9th. Friday, we saw yields pullback and the US dollar with it, the U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.7% to 104.52 (up 1.0% y-t-d). The US dollar fell against our whole basket, not just the majors. … Continue reading “Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – Unsettled Waters with Powell and US Jobs Ahead”
Traders Market Weekly: Collective Market Cognitive Dissonance
February 26 – March 5, 2023 FEAR NOT Brave Investors Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community… The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead? Contents Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section. Editorial Air continues to come out of the markets as we expected after much of the short asset squeeze pulled back, be it in consolidation or topping. We saw significant moves in stocks, … Continue reading “Traders Market Weekly: Collective Market Cognitive Dissonance “
Traders Market Weekly: Rates, Debt and the Fed
February 19-26, 2023 FEAR NOT Brave Investors Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community… The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead? Contents Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section. Editorial The week finished pressuring asset prices, fear levels rose and confusion reigns. Both market participants and Central Bankers are acting belligerent in where they think prices should be. Bottom line is we getting robust signals … Continue reading “Traders Market Weekly: Rates, Debt and the Fed”
Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – Dollar Yen and Treasury Yields Dominate
Focus on forex here remains on the yen since reports the next BoJ is Kazuo Ueda. The Japanese currency traded above 135 to the dollar intraday Friday for the first time since Kuroda loosened YCC on December 20th finishing down 2.1% for the week. We are watching for more significant moves should yen weakness develop and lead to contagion effects on the euro and EM currencies. In other words, is the USD correction completing or is this just a 1-2? … Continue reading “Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – Dollar Yen and Treasury Yields Dominate”
Traders Market Weekly: CPI and PPI Inflation
February 11-18, 2023 FEAR NOT Brave Investors Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community… The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead? Contents Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section. Editorial The week finished with a lackluster feel ahead of key data releases next week, after much of the short asset squeeze pulling back, be it in consolidation or topping. We saw significant moves in stocks, … Continue reading “Traders Market Weekly: CPI and PPI Inflation”
Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – Canadian Dollar and Yen the Focus
For currency markets the volatility was in the yen on Friday on a report that the next BoJ boss in a surprise indication that Kazuo Ueda will be appointed as the next BoJ Governor. Amamiya had turned down the role as BOJ Governor and that 71-year-old Kazuo Ueda was going to get the job. The yen rallied on the chatter among crosses to the USD as it was taken as a hawkish signal. Though that leveled out when he said … Continue reading “Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – Canadian Dollar and Yen the Focus”
Traders Market Weekly: Eyes on Powell and Adani Risks
February 5- 10 2023 FEAR NOT Brave Investors Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community… The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead? Contents Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section. Editorial The rally ignited by Chair Powell’s FOMC press conference and the 20% in Meta Platforms (META) after earnings was put on hold Friday. A blow-out US jobs report and a stronger than expected January … Continue reading “Traders Market Weekly: Eyes on Powell and Adani Risks”
Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – Jump in Yields and Geopolitical Risk Support Dollar
For currency markets the volatility all came to a head on Friday, a day of reversal for all markets after the blowout jobs number. U.S. Treasury yields reversed sharply higher Friday, with two-year yields surging 19 bps. The data and yields that followed spurred a US dollar reversal, with the yen, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and South African rand all down around 2%. The euro was down 1.1% as it gained on the crosses. During the week we saw … Continue reading “Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – Jump in Yields and Geopolitical Risk Support Dollar”