ECB Raises Rates Another 50bps, Lagarde Says Another 50bps in March

ECB raised key rates by 50 bps in its February monetary policy decision following a 50-bps rate hike in December, and matching expectations from most analysts.  EU borrowing costs are at the highest level since late 2008 and ECB President pledged to deliver another 50bps rate hike at its next monetary policy meeting in March. The deposit facility rate is now 2%, the refinancing rate 2.5% and the marginal lending to 2.75%, a level not seen in fourteen years. The central bank … Continue reading “ECB Raises Rates Another 50bps, Lagarde Says Another 50bps in March”

Traders Market Weekly: Big Three Central Banks Resolve to be Tested.

January 29 – Feb 4, 2023 FEAR NOT Brave Investors Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community… The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead? Contents Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section. Editorial The rally that started last Friday continued all week until a sharp pullback ahead of this Friday’s close. A rational sign given the data, banker and earnings deluge next week. We have … Continue reading “Traders Market Weekly: Big Three Central Banks Resolve to be Tested.”

Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – Central Bank Meetings Dominate New Month

The US dollar continued its retreat this week, particularly against commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar (-2.0%), the Brazilian real (-1.9%), the Canadian dollar (-0.5%) and the New Zealand dollar (-0.3%). By week’s end we saw month end position squaring and eyes on next week’s big central bank decisions (Fed, ECB and BOE). This week the Bank of Canada raised rates as expected and the question is now how much of the next Central bank actions are built into … Continue reading “Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – Central Bank Meetings Dominate New Month”

Traders Market Weekly: Big Tech Earnings and Global PMI

January 22 – 28 2023 FEAR NOT Brave Investors Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community… The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead? Contents Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section. Editorial This week came under some heavy selling pressure which dissipated by Friday lunch as the put wall was crushed with VIX imploding. Initially, as with a tamer CPI last week we saw inflationary … Continue reading “Traders Market Weekly: Big Tech Earnings and Global PMI”

Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – Risk on Flows Heading into Chinese New Year

Yen pairs dominated after the BoJ leaving monetary policy unchanged sparking a 300-pip rally in dollar yen which flowed across yen crosses. Japan’s CPI rose to 4% YoY, expect continued volatility as the BoJ Minutes and the Summary of Opinions are released into a less liquid Asian session next week. Both the NZD and AUD moved higher helped by “risk on” flows. Sticking with commodity currencies, The Bank of Canada will be in the spotlight when it updates with its … Continue reading “Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – Risk on Flows Heading into Chinese New Year”

Traders Market Weekly: Short Squeezes and Bond Markets

January 15 – 22 2023 FEAR NOT Brave Investors Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community… The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead? Contents Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section. Editorial It has been a confusing two weeks of 2023 for those calling the end of the world. In the first nine trading sessions of the year, the S&P500 gained 4.20%, The small cap … Continue reading “Traders Market Weekly: Short Squeezes and Bond Markets”

German DAX Rallies 8% to Start 2023 as Euro Rallies and Natural Gas Falls

Germany’s Blue-Chip DAX 40 index has rebounded sharply in the first two weeks of 2023, jumping 8.35%, after falling 12% in 2022. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up 9.42% for the year. European equity markets closed lower in the last trading session of 2022, with the benchmark Stoxx 600 suffering a 12.8% yearly loss, the biggest since 2018. Support is coming from plummeting energy prices with natural gas back down to pre-Ukraine invasion levels. Support is also coming from … Continue reading “German DAX Rallies 8% to Start 2023 as Euro Rallies and Natural Gas Falls”

Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – US Dollar Decline Continues Led by Yen Strength

The week can be summed up with markets are in the throes of a major short squeeze. One of the biggest shorts in 2022 were different currencies against the US dollar, most aggressively shorting the yen. We have seen these reverse abruptly and significantly, poorly positioned funds have experienced quick losses to bring in 2023. The yen has a two-week gain versus the dollar of 2.54%. These popular macro trades tend to be risk on or risk off and feed … Continue reading “Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – US Dollar Decline Continues Led by Yen Strength”

Traders Market Weekly: Inflation and Bank Earnings

January 8 -14 2023 FEAR NOT Brave Investors Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community… The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead? Contents Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section. Editorial The first week of 2023 closed with a bounce on Friday with the main indices all up at least 2.0%.  The lead came from the Treasury market, highlighted by a 32 basis points decline … Continue reading “Traders Market Weekly: Inflation and Bank Earnings”

Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – US Dollar Topples with Yields After Soft US Data

The week can be summed up in forex by the ebbs and flows of Fridays market after the US December jobs report. There is a thought that the deluge of central bank rate hikes is nearing the end as the world topples into recession. The Treasury market had a flying start to the new year, highlighted by a 32 basis points decline in the 10-yr note yield to 3.56%. The 2s10s inversion widened to 71 basis points (from 54 basis … Continue reading “Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – US Dollar Topples with Yields After Soft US Data”