ECB Keeps Rates on Hold but Signals Summer Rate Cut

The European Central Bank (ECB) left all monetary policy settings unchanged, as was widely expected. The consensus forecast is for a 25bps cut by the ECB at its June 6th meeting and an additional 75bps in easing through the remainder of the year. The ECB has proclaimed it is watching inflation and wages data over the next eight weeks before beginning its easing cycle. Chief Lagarde said the ECB does not want to ‘pre-commit’ to a rate path (even after … Continue reading “ECB Keeps Rates on Hold but Signals Summer Rate Cut”

France’s Deepening Economic Decline in Manufacturing and Renewed Reduction in Services

The French economy has flipped int a tailspin after four consecutive monthly expansions according to the latest PMI data for June. Headline HCOB Flash France Composite PMI Output Index slipped from 51.2 to 47.3 to signal the fastest rate of decline since February 2021. Service sector activity showed renewed weakness in June as it also fell into contractionary territory. With ongoing aggressive ECB rate hikes 2023 faces further downside across these metrics that still are not reflecting a fraction of … Continue reading “France’s Deepening Economic Decline in Manufacturing and Renewed Reduction in Services”

European Manufacturing Production Rose First Time Since May 2022

European countries manufacturing PMIs in February remained in contraction (actual 48.5; prior 48.8) S&P Global flash indices show. Manufacturing production increased for the first time since May 2022, though fractionally. We continue to see mostly milder contractions but ongoing contractions, nonetheless. On a separate note, the European Central Bank began reducing holdings in its Asset Purchase Program portfolio today. With ongoing aggressive ECB rate hikes 2023 faces further downside across these metrics that still are not reflecting a fraction of … Continue reading “European Manufacturing Production Rose First Time Since May 2022”

Inflation Helped Most Indebted Eurozone Budgetary Positions Improve

With all the doom and gloom headlines you maybe somewhat surprised to find out there have been huge improvements in budgetary positions in many European nations. More significantly the biggest debtor nations have seen the biggest improvements. Why? Inflation is adding more to revenues than it is to spending, this is reducing debt-to-national-income ratios by both lowering debt and by boosting (nominal) income. Europe was affected by the Russian gas supply cut; however, it could have been much worse. The … Continue reading “Inflation Helped Most Indebted Eurozone Budgetary Positions Improve”

UK PMI Shows Inflation Pressures at 16 Month Low but Uncertainty Hinders Employment

The UK manufacturing and service sectors contracted for a fifth month in December S&P Global flash PMI indices show. We continue to see mostly milder contractions but ongoing contractions, nonetheless. British companies cut staff for the first time since the COVID lockdowns of early-2021 with excess operating capacity developing relative to order book growth. Supplier delivery delays indicated the imbalance of supply and demand seen during the height of the COVID-19 crisis is now reversing. This shift saw Inflationary pressures … Continue reading “UK PMI Shows Inflation Pressures at 16 Month Low but Uncertainty Hinders Employment”

European PMI Shows Manufacturing and Services Improvement but Still in Contraction

European countries manufacturing and service sectors PMIs in December saw mostly improvements but nothing exciting S&P Global flash indices show. We continue to see mostly milder contractions but ongoing contractions, nonetheless. With ongoing aggressive ECB rate hikes 2023 faces further downside across these metrics that still are not reflecting a fraction of the lagging impact of tightened monetary policy. The S&P Global Eurozone Composite flash PMI® rose by one full point to 48.8 (47.9 consensus). Both the services (49.1, 48.5 … Continue reading “European PMI Shows Manufacturing and Services Improvement but Still in Contraction”

Germany December PMI Shows Declines in Manufacturing and Services Eased

German manufacturing and service sectors PMIs in December showed mostly modest improvements but nothing exciting S&P Global flash indices show. We continue to see the downturn in the German economy seen as easing. Recession risks overhang with the energy crisis and aggressive ECB rate hikes 2023 faces further downside across these metrics that still are not reflecting a fraction of the lagging impact of tightened monetary policy. German PMI December 2022  Firms’ costs notably rose at the slowest rate for … Continue reading “Germany December PMI Shows Declines in Manufacturing and Services Eased”

France Manufacturing and Services PMI Shows Deepening Downturn

The French flash French composite PMI slipped from 48.7 to 48.0 to signal a second consecutive monthly drop in output and the largest decline since November 2014 if the pandemic is excluded. France saw the steepest fall in its service sector activity for 22 months. There was a softening of the manufacturing downturn at the same time. With ongoing aggressive ECB rate hikes 2023 faces further downside across these metrics that still are not reflecting a fraction of the lagging … Continue reading “France Manufacturing and Services PMI Shows Deepening Downturn”