Turkey’s Lira hit a 7 month low after the U.S. assassinated Iranian Maj. Gen.Soleimani in an airstrike. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Swore retribution after the US Turkish state lenders sold up to $1.5 billion to stem the lira’s fall on Friday,
Brazil’s central bank Banco Central do Brasil followed the Federal Reserve’s 25bp cut with a 50bps cut to record lows in a unanimous decision saying global economic outlook uncertain ands risks of greater slowdown persist.
The Arab world’s biggest bourse, Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul exchange, third phase of inclusion in FTSE Russell’s emerging market index is set to attract about $1.58 billion (Dh5.8bn) in passive foreign inflows. KSA joined the MSCI Emerging Market benchmark last year.
The emerging markets known as the ‘fragile five’; Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey have shown that contagion is unavoidable when you are a high interest-rate economy with a trade deficit dependant on foreign capital to balance its books.
The Turkish crisis escalated over the past week and has sent flight risk contagion ripples through emerging markets. The fallout extends to those that are Turkey’s biggest lenders. There are five banks most exposed with Spains BBVA the most at risk
Oil plummeted Friday after Russia and Saudi Arabia were quoted as increasing production. High oil prices are crucial for Russia’s vulnerable economy and the flow on was seen in Russia tracking ETFs which had avoided the emerging-market selling until now. Russia will be more circumspect going forward.
Argentina’s currency the Peso collapsed Monday 9% to an all time low against the US Dollar. Nervous investors continued to dump the Peso carry trade ahead of bond repayments and an IMF meeting in fear of another Argentine Currency Crisis.
Much back and forth on a Turkey-US crisis, coming just weeks after the Kurdistan vote. Turkish Deputy PM Simsek speaking in Washington says its all overblown. What grabbed my attention was Turkey’s 10% inflation on a Fed minutes day.