ECB Keeps Rates on Hold but Signals Summer Rate Cut

The European Central Bank (ECB) left all monetary policy settings unchanged, as was widely expected. The consensus forecast is for a 25bps cut by the ECB at its June 6th meeting and an additional 75bps in easing through the remainder of the year. The ECB has proclaimed it is watching inflation and wages data over the next eight weeks before beginning its easing cycle. Chief Lagarde said the ECB does not want to ‘pre-commit’ to a rate path (even after … Continue reading “ECB Keeps Rates on Hold but Signals Summer Rate Cut”

Focus on Powell, Fed Loan Survey and RBA Interest Rate

The week was surprised by a more hawkish Federal Reserve chair this week over rate guidance and QT parameters though it barely reduced punts for rate cuts at future meetings. We get more from the Fed this week with a Powell 60 minutes interview and the Fed’s loan survey to inform on credit tightening. Also ahead is ECB inflation expectations and monetary policy decisions from Banxico, Peru, RBA, Poland. India and Thailand. There were no surprises last week from the … Continue reading “Focus on Powell, Fed Loan Survey and RBA Interest Rate”

Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus Fed, BOE, Riksbank Amid Irrational Exuberance

The coming week brings out meetings with the Federal Reserve mulling over rate guidance and QT parameters. Nothing is expected from that statement-only outcome and markets have reduced punts for rate cuts at the March 20th and May 1st meetings. We also have the Bank of England, Riksbank, Hungary and several LatAm central banks, Brazil, Chile and Columbia. They are confronted by a new round of developments such as the shipping crisis in the Middle East that injects further uncertainty … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus Fed, BOE, Riksbank Amid Irrational Exuberance”

ECB Leaves Key Interest Rates Unchanged, Short of Markets Hawkish Expectations

ECB kept key rates unchanged in its January monetary policy decision at 4.50%, multi-year highs for the third consecutive meeting, with the closely watched deposit facility rate 4.00%, in line with markets thoughts. The ECB broke their record streak of rate hikes with the pause and markets are also convinced that they aren’t going to add any more considering the state of the economy at the moment. The ECB’s Lagarde did not push back, failing to make use of Middle … Continue reading “ECB Leaves Key Interest Rates Unchanged, Short of Markets Hawkish Expectations”

Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus BoJ, BoC, Norges, Turkey and ECB

It’s been a quiet start to the year for central bankers, the coming week brings them out confronted by a new round of developments such as the shipping crisis in the Middle East that injects further uncertainty into their plans. We have decisions from Bank of Japan (Tuesday), Bank of Canada, Bank Negara Malaysia (Wednesday), Norges Bank, South African Reserve Bank, Central Bank of Turkey and the European Central Bank (Thursday). Then we have the January 31st FOMC meeting and … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus BoJ, BoC, Norges, Turkey and ECB”

Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus China, Lagarde, Indonesia and Biege Book

Quiet start to the year for central bankers, National Bank of Poland, Central Reserve Bank of Peru and Bank of Korea decisions all as expected. We did get a hotter CPI print before the January 31st FOMC meeting and with those expectations for the Fed’s preferred PCE measure of inflation on January 26th. Nothing is expected from that statement-only outcome and markets have reduced punts for rate cuts at the March 20th and May 1st meetings. Ahead this week we … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus China, Lagarde, Indonesia and Biege Book”

Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on Final CPI Before January 31st FOMC

No surprise with the FOMC minutes as expected though they did the expand rate cut dialogue to remind it isn’t over yet for ates, possibly. For the Fed Thursday brings the final CPI print before the January 31st FOMC meeting and with those expectations for the Fed’s preferred PCE measure of inflation on January 26th. Nothing is expected from that statement-only outcome and markets have reduced punts for rate cuts at the March 20th and May 1st meetings. We also … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on Final CPI Before January 31st FOMC”

Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on Fed Minutes Looking for Clues on Rate Cuts

With the Christmas and New Year’s holidays it’s a very quiet time for Central Banks with no surprises from the BoJ Summary of Opinions and Minutes from the Bank of Korea and Reserve Bank of India. In the New Year it all begins again FOMC minutes to expand on rate cut dialogue with memories of last year’s first Fed meeting that started the rise in rates and sell off in equity markets from record highs still fresh. FOMC Member Barkin … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on Fed Minutes Looking for Clues on Rate Cuts”

Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on BoJ, BoK and RBI Minutes and Opinions

A predictable past week of central bank action, Japan’s BoJ, Columbia’s BanRep, Banco Central de Chile, Hungary’s Central Bank, Bank Indonesia and Central Bank of Turkey all pretty much went to plan. We had big macro numbers that also stayed around consensus including US core PCE, UK core CPI, Japan’s CPI post-BoJ, NZ to issue a mid-year fiscal update and Canadian core CPI. With the Christmas Holidays it’s a very quiet time for Central Banks with just the BoJ Summary … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on BoJ, BoK and RBI Minutes and Opinions”

Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on Post Fed Follow Through and BoJ Monetary Policy

In the past week it was a central bank overload with over a dozen central banks including FOMC, BoK, BCB, BoE, ECB, SNB & Norges Bank Policy Announcements. The Fed was the lone major central bank with speculation on rate cuts this week which sent the bond and stock markets on fire, with the Dow hitting an all-time high Wednesday. The ECB and BoE pushed back while others offered mixed perspectives including Norges Bank’s surprise hike. More central Bank action … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on Post Fed Follow Through and BoJ Monetary Policy”