Wheat Futures Hampered by Strong US Dollar Pricing Out Exports

A rough week for wheat futures, closing the week down 2.41%. The high US dollar is weighing on “reduced supplies, slow pace of export sales, and continued uncompetitive U.S. export prices”. On Friday all wheat basis front month contracts closed lower. SRW December down 21 1/2 cents for the week loss. KC Dec futures closed down 23 1/4 cent for the week. Spring Dec wheat futures closed down by 16 1/2 cents on the week. Weakness continued from the USDA … Continue reading “Wheat Futures Hampered by Strong US Dollar Pricing Out Exports”

Wheat Futures Down with Lowest US Exports Since 1971-1972

Wheat futures closed the week down 1.39% despite bouncing Friday with a broad set of other commodities higher as the U.S. Dollar retreated from recent highs on Fed speak. Weakness for the week came from the USDA cutting its 2022-23 outlook for U.S. wheat exports by 50M bushels to 775M bushels, the lowest amount of domestic wheat exports since the 1971-1972 marketing year. The high US dollar is biting “reduced supplies, slow pace of export sales, and continued uncompetitive U.S. … Continue reading “Wheat Futures Down with Lowest US Exports Since 1971-1972”

Wheat Futures Down 4.5% On the Week After Ukraine Concluded its 2022 Harvest

Wheat futures Friday followed a broad set of other commodities higher despite the strong U.S. Dollar following the September Jobs report. However, on the week they were down 4.5%. Since the summer prices have been curbed by increasing volumes shipped from Ukraine through the Black Sea corridor. Ukraine’s agriculture ministry reported its 2022 wheat harvest concluded with a total estimated production of 705.5 million bushels, significantly lower than last year’s 1.183 billion. A fifth vessel chartered by the United Nations World … Continue reading “Wheat Futures Down 4.5% On the Week After Ukraine Concluded its 2022 Harvest”

Wheat Futures Soared after USDA Lowered 2022 Production and Russia Annexing Parts of Ukraine

Wheat futures ended the week firmly higher over 4.7% for the week after the USDA sharply lowered its 2022 production estimates.  With droughts and the Ukraine turmoil the world is heading towards even tighter grain inventories in years. The annexation by Putin of Ukraine areas puts at risk the resumption of exports from Ukraine. The shipments were already too few and harvests from other major crop producers are smaller than initially expected. Off-farm stocks are down 13% year-over-year to 1.18 … Continue reading “Wheat Futures Soared after USDA Lowered 2022 Production and Russia Annexing Parts of Ukraine”

Wheat Futures Supported by Drought in the U.S and Argentina with Black Sea Uncertainty

Wheat futures ended the week firm but gave back most of the gain on Friday to close up 2.01% for the week. Ongoing drought in the United States and Argentina is providing support. Concerns remain for the latest lower production estimates in Europe together with ongoing geopolitical unrest in the Black Sea region with Putin threatening safe passage of Ukrainian ships from its Black Sea ports. Pakistan is on the market for 300k MT of wheat after crop damages due … Continue reading “Wheat Futures Supported by Drought in the U.S and Argentina with Black Sea Uncertainty”

Wheat Futures Hold Gains on Lower European Production and Black Sea Uncertainty

Wheat futures closed up 1.27% for the week holding onto last week’s 7.2% gains. Concerns the latest lower production estimates in Europe together with ongoing geopolitical unrest in the Black Sea region with Putin threatening Russia to demand changes to the current deal that allows for safe passage of Ukrainian ships from its Black Sea ports. Monday’s WASDE report concluded the U.S. ending stocks estimates were neutral for wheat and world ending stocks estimates were seen as also neutral for … Continue reading “Wheat Futures Hold Gains on Lower European Production and Black Sea Uncertainty”

Wheat Futures Surge on Putin Threats To Change Black Sea Safe Passage Agreement

Wheat futures leapt higher Friday surging 7.2% for the week on concerns Putin is threatening Russia to demand changes to the current deal that allows for safe passage of Ukrainian ships from its Black Sea ports. Rising energy prices and the U.S. Dollar pulling off 25-year highs gave additional support today. Monday’s WASDE report is expected to have USDA slightly raise its estimates for 2022/23 wheat ending stocks from 610 million bushels in August up to 618 million bushels in … Continue reading “Wheat Futures Surge on Putin Threats To Change Black Sea Safe Passage Agreement”

Wheat Futures Supported by Contagion Risk from Russia Being World’s No. 1 Exporter

Wheat futures held last week’s rally of over 7.5% to close 0.5% on the week. Significantly the grain was just one of four commodities to close higher on the week, the others were Live and feeder cattle and orange juice. Global “Risk Off” gathered momentum this week. Factors include a slow start to Ukrainian grain exports and widespread drought throughout Europe. The continuing tension between the US, EU and Russia is another wildcard given Russia is the world’s No. 1 … Continue reading “Wheat Futures Supported by Contagion Risk from Russia Being World’s No. 1 Exporter”

Wheat Futures Soar 7.63% For the Week on Sluggish Ukrainian Grain Exports and European Drought

Wheat jumped Friday with a slow start to Ukrainian grain exports and widespread drought throughout Europe. Spillover strength from corn and soybeans lent additional support. The misfire of USDA’s upgraded export sales reporting system ESRMS 2.0 also helped short covering. The agency retracted its latest set of grain export data. Continuous wheat futures closed down 3% lower Thursday. On Friday, they bounced back, with wheat up 2.8%. Spillover strength from corn and soybeans lent additional support. On Thursday, commodity funds … Continue reading “Wheat Futures Soar 7.63% For the Week on Sluggish Ukrainian Grain Exports and European Drought”