Market Wrap – Fed Speaks Hawkish, Markets Give It All Back

Stock markets gave up another Bear Market rally after initially soaring on the FOMC statement that was orderly. Selling took hold with hawkish talk from Powell about strong employment, economy and problematic inflation. U.S. Treasuries finished Wednesday with losses across the curve. Oil was back around 7-year highs and natural gas gave up a 6% gain to go negative. Volatility continued after hours with Tesla despite record earnings fell from 943 to 879 and back to 938. Volatility reign supreme … Continue reading “Market Wrap – Fed Speaks Hawkish, Markets Give It All Back”

Market Wrap – Bad Moon Rising for Tech Ahead of Fed

Stock markets gave up yesterday’s Bear Market rally with ease and spent much of the day trying to recover only to fail as the FOMC began its two-day policy meeting and the specter of energy woes and Ukraine overhung. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates there is only a 5.6% probability of a rate hike tomorrow. The market is looking forward to much and the balance of market support versus inflation risk. MSFT earnings after the close disappointed while TXN surprised. … Continue reading “Market Wrap – Bad Moon Rising for Tech Ahead of Fed”

Market Wrap – That’s A Bounce, Bear Market Rally or Capitulation

Stock markets in the US opened sharply down with end of the world calls about Russia at war, Omicron and rising interest rates. The small cap Russell 2000 outperformed with a 2.3% gain after being down as much as 2.8%.  CBOE Volatility Index closed at 29.90+3.6% after being over 35%. At the lows the Nasdaq Composite was down 19.2% from its all-time high, the S&P 500 was down 12.4% from its all-time high and the Russell over 20% down. We look at … Continue reading “Market Wrap – That’s A Bounce, Bear Market Rally or Capitulation”

Market Wrap – Blood on The Streets with Nasdaq on Track for The Worst January Ever

A brutal week for US stocks Nasdaq is on track to have the worst January ever. The Russell 2000 closed at its 52-week low. Oil moved around with geopolitical risks in the Ukraine and risk assets. U.S. Treasuries finished the week firmly higher with longer tenors reclaiming losses from recent days. Cryptocurrencies collapsed with Bitcoin and Ethereum having outsized losses. Stock markets have been de-risking at what better reminder than a needless overpriced indoor bike! After the market Netflix warned sending … Continue reading “Market Wrap – Blood on The Streets with Nasdaq on Track for The Worst January Ever”

Soaring Aluminum Prices Boost Alcoa Earnings to Highest Growth Rate in Over Five Years

Aluminum producer Alcoa reported better than expected fourth quarter earnings on Wednesday. Aluminum has seen prices rise 50% yr/yr. AA reporting quarterly records for adjusted net income and adjusted EBITDA. Revenue rose 38% yr/yr, Alcoa’s highest growth rate in over five years. Alcoa Corp NYSE: AA Reported Earnings After Close Wednesday $2.50 Beat $1.93 EPS AND $3.30 Billion Beat $3.30 Billion Forecast in Revenue Earnings Alcoa reported $896 million in Ebitda in line with estimates. Adjusted earnings of $2.50 a share … Continue reading “Soaring Aluminum Prices Boost Alcoa Earnings to Highest Growth Rate in Over Five Years”

Market Wrap – Peloton and Netflix Bring Out the Bears

Well so much for that. Markets began swimmingly then started to reverse at key technical levels and much like yesterday down it went. The mood changed rapidly after Peloton warned and halted production, reminded the dribblers of the trash they owned and from positive to negative it all went. Stock markets have been de-risking at what better reminder than a needless overpriced indoor bike! After the market Netflix warned sending the bears out in force. CME’s FedWatch Tool is pricing in the … Continue reading “Market Wrap – Peloton and Netflix Bring Out the Bears”

Market Wrap – U.S. Treasuries Solid Gains Across the Curve as Stock Markets De-Risking Continues

Markets continued down from yesterday trend breaks. Oil traded at new 5-year highs; U.S. Treasuries ended Wednesday with solid gains across the curve. Again, stock markets lower from more de-risking effort attributed to angst over rising interest rates and potential earnings disappointments. CME’s FedWatch Tool is pricing in the probability of four rate hikes in 2022. Market chatter continues of the Fed raising the target range for the fed funds rate by 50 basis points at its March meeting. Enjoy live commentary from … Continue reading “Market Wrap – U.S. Treasuries Solid Gains Across the Curve as Stock Markets De-Risking Continues”

Wake Up Call – The Day Ahead Jan 19, 2021

Some life in the markets after Earnings beats from Procter & Gamble (PG) UnitedHealth (UNH) Bank of America (BAC) Morgan Stanley (MS) Fastenal (FAST). Oil again supported by geopolitical threatss. The markets wait for a 20 year bond market and more earnings. A live recap of what happened while we slept overnight and what lies ahead. We go through charts on the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell, Oil and Natural gas. Markets again have eyes on Rates. Enjoy live commentary from Our Trading Room at youtube as … Continue reading “Wake Up Call – The Day Ahead Jan 19, 2021”

Bank of America Loan Balances Growing with Higher Interest Rates Boosting Profits

Bank of America, America’s second largest investment bank reported better than expected fourth earnings Wednesday following three of the largest U.S. lenders, JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) reporting mixed results last week. $BAC posted its second straight quarter of year-over-year positive operating leverage. Rising interest rates has a positive effect on Bank of America earnings and with the 10-year yield rising as the Fed signals tightening. Bank of America Corporation NYSE: BAC Report Earnings Before Open … Continue reading “Bank of America Loan Balances Growing with Higher Interest Rates Boosting Profits”

Market Wrap – Stock Markets De-Risking with Oil & Interest Rates Higher

Markets continue to be rattled by Geopolitical fissures from Kazakhstan to Ukraine to UAE and Iran. Political incompetence from London to Washington and so much more aren’t smoothing the situation. Oil traded at 5-year highs; the 10-year note hit the highest level in seven years. The VIX traded back up with stock markets lower from more de-risking effort attributed to angst over rising interest rates and potential earnings disappointments after $GS sold off. CME’s FedWatch Tool is pricing in the probability of … Continue reading “Market Wrap – Stock Markets De-Risking with Oil & Interest Rates Higher”