Stocks Up 20% Globally, Best Since 2019, Can They Continue?

The MSCI’s world share index, a broad measure of global developed market equities, posted a 21.56% gain in 2023, its most in four years. The move was established in the run since October as investors bet central banks will begin cutting interest rates in 2024. The buying triggered short covering which exasperated the move higher. The big question as always with stocks, can they continue higher? There are many factors, the main one at this time is interest rates given … Continue reading “Stocks Up 20% Globally, Best Since 2019, Can They Continue?”

German Industrial Base Still Struggling, April Factory Orders -0.4% vs +3.0% m/m Expected

Germany’s industrial powerhouse has still not recovered from the supply line crisis and then the difficulties of being so reliant on Russia for energy and the shocks that came with that. German industrial orders unexpectedly dropped by 0.4% m/m in April 2023, missing market estimates of a 3.0% rise and following an upwardly revised 10.9% fall in March. This was the second straight month of decline in industrial orders, dragged down a fall in large-scale orders. If you take out … Continue reading “German Industrial Base Still Struggling, April Factory Orders -0.4% vs +3.0% m/m Expected”

Morgan Stanley Calls U.S. Stock Market Rally a FOMO Head Fake

US Bank Morgan Stanley’s Monday note to clients called the recent rally on the equity market a head fake and driven by the fear of people missing out (FOMO). Many pundits have been shocked by the rise in stock markets in the U.S. given the U.S. bank crisis that saw three of the four largest bank collapses in history this year, the U.S. debt ceiling crisis and Yellen imposed X date on June 1 for a default by the U.S. … Continue reading “Morgan Stanley Calls U.S. Stock Market Rally a FOMO Head Fake”

Germany Inflation Continued to Ease in April, However Energy Prices Did Rebound

Germany’s consumer price inflation eased further to 7.2 percent year-on-year in April 2023, down from 7.4 percent the month before and slightly below market expectations of 7.3 percent. Well down from 8.7% just two months ago. The rate hit its lowest level since August 2022, but remained well above the ECB’s target of 2.0 percent. Energy inflation accelerated bounced to 6.8 percent from 3.5 percent in the previous period but it still down sharply from 19.1 percent in February. However, … Continue reading “Germany Inflation Continued to Ease in April, However Energy Prices Did Rebound”

Germany Inflation Fell Further in March as Energy Prices Slowed Sharply

Germany’s consumer price inflation eased further to 7.4% year-on-year in March 2023, down from 8.7% in the previous two months. Market expectations were 7.3%. The rate hit its lowest level since August 2022, but remained well above the ECB’s target of 2.0 percent. Energy inflation slowed sharply to 3.5 percent from 19.1 percent in February. However, food prices still remain elevated, increasing at a faster 22.3 percent, compared with a 21.8 percent rise the month before. At the same time, … Continue reading “Germany Inflation Fell Further in March as Energy Prices Slowed Sharply”

Germany Business Shrugs off Banking Crisis, Inflation and Strikes – Ifo

Despite constant negative headwinds in Germany sentiment in German business has improved. The Ifo Business Climate indicator for Germany increased to 93.3 in March of 2023. The index is the highest since February of 2022 beating market forecasts of 91 and up from 91.1 the previous month. Confidence among businesses rose for a fifth consecutive month, despite the recent banking turmoil surrounding Deustche Bank, inflation, strikes and borrowing costs. This upward development was driven primarily by business expectations; companies also … Continue reading “Germany Business Shrugs off Banking Crisis, Inflation and Strikes – Ifo”

German DAX Rallies 8% to Start 2023 as Euro Rallies and Natural Gas Falls

Germany’s Blue-Chip DAX 40 index has rebounded sharply in the first two weeks of 2023, jumping 8.35%, after falling 12% in 2022. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up 9.42% for the year. European equity markets closed lower in the last trading session of 2022, with the benchmark Stoxx 600 suffering a 12.8% yearly loss, the biggest since 2018. Support is coming from plummeting energy prices with natural gas back down to pre-Ukraine invasion levels. Support is also coming from … Continue reading “German DAX Rallies 8% to Start 2023 as Euro Rallies and Natural Gas Falls”

Germany Inflation Falls in December with Government Help on Natural Gas Bills

Germany’s annual consumer price inflation fell to 8.6% in December 2022, from 10% reported in November and below the market consensus of 9.1% preliminary estimates showed. Inflation has been running rampant mainly due to energy costs which has led the ECB to raise rates aggressively and has impacted the German Bund sending yields to levels not seen since 2011. It was the inflation lowest rate since August. The German government with a one-time payment in December lowered household natural gas … Continue reading “Germany Inflation Falls in December with Government Help on Natural Gas Bills”

Germany Consumer Sentiment Hits All Time Low with Recession and Natural Gas Shortage Fears

The German people’s sentiment continues to suffer from soaring energy and food prices, the shadow of war in Ukraine and the morose sentiment thereto. The GfK Consumer Climate Indicator for Germany fell to a new record low of -30.6 heading into August of 2022 from a revised -27.7 in June. Forecasts were -28.9. Germany’s once stoic V-shaped recovery has long been put to bed. The ECB raised key rates by 50 bps in its July monetary policy decision which further … Continue reading “Germany Consumer Sentiment Hits All Time Low with Recession and Natural Gas Shortage Fears”

Germany Consumer Sentiment Near All Time Low with Soaring Prices and War in Ukraine

The German people’s sentiment continues to suffer from soaring energy and food prices, the shadow of war in Ukraine and the morose sentiment thereto. The GfK Consumer Climate Indicator for Germany edged up to -26 heading into June of 2022 from a record low of -26.6 in May which was expected in market forecasts. Germany’s once stoic V-shaped recovery has long been put to bed and moves by the ECB to raise rates will further cloud the mood. Despite the … Continue reading “Germany Consumer Sentiment Near All Time Low with Soaring Prices and War in Ukraine”