Core Inflation Rose More Than Expected Again in January, Fed Hawkish Rhetoric Justified

Consumer prices continue prove to be sticky in the US, core CPI continues to run hot. The Fed favors the core metric as a better gauge of inflation trends. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.4% month-over-month (consensus 0.3%) after increasing 0.3% in December. Shelter prices, which make up about a third of the overall CPI index jumped 0.6%, accounting for more than two thirds of the overall increase. On a year-over-year basis core CPI was up … Continue reading “Core Inflation Rose More Than Expected Again in January, Fed Hawkish Rhetoric Justified”

Consumer Inflation in December Rises Most in Three Months

Consumer prices have been proving sticky in the US, accelerating the most in three months in December. The CPI increased 3.4% in the year through December. On a monthly basis, it also rose by more than forecast, up 0.3%, the most in three months and above forecasts of 0.2%. The CPI core, excluding food and energy rose 0.3% in December from a month earlier and on an annual basis increased 3.9%. The Fed favors the core metric as a better … Continue reading “Consumer Inflation in December Rises Most in Three Months”

US Producer Prices Continue to Deflate in November with Lower Energy Prices

The Producer Price Index for final demand in November continued with the disinflation view, PPI was unchanged month-over-month (consensus 0.1%), as was the index for final demand less foods and energy (consensus 0.2%). On a year-over-year basis, the index for final demand was up 0.9%, versus 1.2% in October, and the index for final demand less foods and energy was up 2.0%, versus 2.3% in October. The index for processed goods for intermediate demand was unchanged month-over-month while the index … Continue reading “US Producer Prices Continue to Deflate in November with Lower Energy Prices”

US Producer Prices Deflate in October, Biggest Drop Since April 2020

The October Producer Price Index (PPI) followed on with the disinflation tact being seen in some consumer prices, which keeps pass-through effects to the consumer less an issue. The market has responded in kind the last few days sending stocks sharply higher and yields sharply lower. Total PPI was down 0.5% month-over-month (consensus 0.1%), the biggest drop since April 2020, following a downwardly revised 0.4% increase (from 0.5%) in September. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged month-over-month … Continue reading “US Producer Prices Deflate in October, Biggest Drop Since April 2020”

Consumer Inflation Lower Than Expectations in October, but Shelter up 0.3% Underscores Cost of Living Crisis

U.S. CPI was unchanged in October month-over-month (consensus 0.1%) following a 0.4% increase in September. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.2% month-over-month (consensus 0.3%) following a 0.3% increase in September. The shelter index, up 0.3%, again was the largest factor in the increase in core CPI. On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 3.2%, versus 3.7% in September, and core CPI was up 4.0%, versus 4.1% in September. This was the smallest 12-month change in … Continue reading “Consumer Inflation Lower Than Expectations in October, but Shelter up 0.3% Underscores Cost of Living Crisis”

Consumer Inflation Rises +0.4% in September with Hot Core Services Sector

U.S. CPI increased 0.4% month-over-month in September (consensus 0.3%) and core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% (consensus 0.3%). More than half of the increase in total CPI was driven by a 0.6% increase in the index for shelter. On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was unchanged at 3.7% while core CPI dropped to 4.1% from 4.3% for the 12 months ended in August. The all items index less shelter was up just 2.0% year-over-year and the services … Continue reading “Consumer Inflation Rises +0.4% in September with Hot Core Services Sector”

US Producer Prices Higher in September, Pass Through Effects to Consumer Worry

U.S. producer inflation rose unexpectantly higher than forecast in September, rising 0.5% month-over-month (consensus 0.3%) following a 0.7% increase in August. The Producer Price Index, excluding food and energy (core), rose 0.3% month-over-month (consensus 0.2%) following a 0.2% increase in August. On a year-over-year basis, PPI was up 2.2%, versus 1.6% in August, and core PPI was up 2.7%, versus 2.2% in August. The report puts a hold on disinflation being seen in producer prices, which keeps pass-through effects to … Continue reading “US Producer Prices Higher in September, Pass Through Effects to Consumer Worry”

US Producer Prices Higher in August, Cost of Gasoline Surged 20%

U.S. producer inflation rose unexpectantly higher than forecast in August 0.7% month-over-month (consensus +0.2%) following a 0.3% increase in July. Prices being driven by higher fuel costs that risk tempering household spending and keeping inflation elevated. The cost of gasoline surged 20%, accounting for much of the gain. The core measure increased 0.2% month-over-month, as expected. On a year-over-year basis PPI was up 1.6% and excluding food and energy, was up 2.2%. On an annual basis, the PPI accelerated for … Continue reading “US Producer Prices Higher in August, Cost of Gasoline Surged 20%”

Cost of Living Crisis Deepens as Consumer Inflation Rises +0.6% in August

Annual inflation rose increased 0.6% from the prior month in August, the highest in twelve months pushed higher by gasoline prices on already strained household budgets. It was the most since inflation peaked at a four-decade high in June 2022. The cost-of-living crisis deepens as real wages continue to suffer, inflation-adjusted earnings rose 0.5% from a year earlier, a second month of decelerating earnings growth. Core CPI accelerated on a monthly basis for the first time since February, which leaves … Continue reading “Cost of Living Crisis Deepens as Consumer Inflation Rises +0.6% in August”

Consumer Inflation in July +0.2%, Shelter Accounted for Over 90% of Rise

Annual inflation rose for the first time in twelve months on a year-over-year basis, accelerated to 3.2% in July 2023 from 3% in June, but below forecasts of 3.3%. It marks a halt in the 12 consecutive months of declines, due to a high base effect from last year when a surge in energy and food prices pushed the headline inflation rate to 1981-highs of 9.1%. Core CPI eased to 4.7% from 4.8% in June, below expectations of 4.8%. On … Continue reading “Consumer Inflation in July +0.2%, Shelter Accounted for Over 90% of Rise”