Bank of Canada Holds Rates at 5.00%, Focused on Wage Growth Despite Growth Concerns

Bank of Canada held its overnight rate to 5.00% in January 2023 as largely expected by markets, following up the no change from the previous meetings. The market was pricing in a 15% chance of a rate cut. BOC said, “still concerned about risks to the outlook for inflation, particularly the persistence in underlying inflation” Of note the BOC statement no longer says it “remains prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed.” “Labour market conditions have eased, with … Continue reading “Bank of Canada Holds Rates at 5.00%, Focused on Wage Growth Despite Growth Concerns”

Bank of Canada Holds Rates at 5.00%, Economy No Longer in Excess Demand

Bank of Canada held its overnight rate to 5.00% in December 2023 as expected by markets, following up the no change from the previous meeting. The market is pricing in about a 20% chance of a January rate cut. A March cut remains 90% priced in. BOC said “suggest the economy is no longer in excess demand.” BOC saw “further signs that monetary policy is moderating spending and relieving price pressures” The bank repeated that it ” is prepared to … Continue reading “Bank of Canada Holds Rates at 5.00%, Economy No Longer in Excess Demand”

Bank of Canada Holds Rates at 5.00%, Cuts 2023 Growth Forecast To 1.2% from 1.8%

Bank of Canada held its overnight rate to 5.00% in October 2023 as expected by markets, following up the no change from the previous meeting. BOC sees “clearer signs that monetary policy is moderating spending and relieving price pressures” “There is growing evidence that past interest rate increases are dampening economic activity and relieving price pressures”. The bank repeated that it” is prepared to increase the policy interest rate further if needed”. The BOC cut 2023 growth forecast to 1.2% … Continue reading “Bank of Canada Holds Rates at 5.00%, Cuts 2023 Growth Forecast To 1.2% from 1.8%”

Bank of Canada Holds Rates at 5.00% as expected, Warns CPI Higher with Gasoline Prices

Bank of Canada held its overnight rate to 5.00% in September 2023 as expected by markets, following up the 25bps rate hikes from the two previous meeting which extended its tightening cycle after the brief pause in March and April. The market was pricing in a 14% chance of a rate cut ahead of the decision. The BoC has been clear that its policy relied upon developments conforming to its expectations. That clearly has not been the case with recent … Continue reading “Bank of Canada Holds Rates at 5.00% as expected, Warns CPI Higher with Gasoline Prices”

Bank of Canada Raises Rates by 25bps to 5.00%, Persistent Price Pressures Remain

Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate to 5.00% in July 2023 as expected by markets, following up the surprise 25bps rate hike from the previous meeting and extending its tightening cycle after the brief pause in March and April. The BoC has been clear that its policy relied upon developments conforming to its expectations. That clearly has not been the case with recent data and bond action. The BOC stated that Moreover, with three-month rates of core inflation running … Continue reading “Bank of Canada Raises Rates by 25bps to 5.00%, Persistent Price Pressures Remain”

EIA Forecast World Oil Consumption to Overtake Production This Year with Russia and KSA Cuts

In the July STEO, EIA forecast that world oil consumption will overtake production this year, this reverses earlier forecasts. The EIA 2023 world oil demand growth forecast was raised by 170kbpd to 1.76mbpd Y/Y,however, the 2024 forecast demand cut by 60kbpd to a 1.64mbpd Y/Y. A small drop in oil production from OPEC+ alliances with the extension of production cuts and those outside of them will trim global supply to 101.1mbpd a day, just short of demand. EIA sees US … Continue reading “EIA Forecast World Oil Consumption to Overtake Production This Year with Russia and KSA Cuts”

Bank of Canada Raises Rates After Five Month Pause by 25bps to 4.75%

Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate to 4.75% in June 2023, the market has priced in a 60% chance of a hike, the Candian dollar rallied immediately after the release. The move follows the surprise hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia yesterday. The BoC has been clear that its conditional hold since January relied upon developments conforming to its expectations. That clearly has not been the case with recent data and bond action. The 3.1% GDP surprise in … Continue reading “Bank of Canada Raises Rates After Five Month Pause by 25bps to 4.75%”

EIA Sees Brent Higher but Forecast Non-OPEC Growth will Offset OPEC+ Production Cuts

In the June STEO, EIA forecast that despite the extension of OPEC+ production cuts, global liquid fuels production will increase by 1.5 million b/d in 2023 and by 1.3 million b/d in 2024, primarily because of growth from non-OPEC producers. EIA also raised its 2023 world oil demand growth forecast by 30Kbpd, seeing an increase of 1.59m bpd this year. However, the EIA lowered next year’s demand forecast by 20Kbpd to a 1.70 mbpd increase. They see most of this … Continue reading “EIA Sees Brent Higher but Forecast Non-OPEC Growth will Offset OPEC+ Production Cuts”

EIA Expects Energy Demand Growth to Balance Global Oil Market Between Q3 2023 and Q1 2024

In the May STEO, EIA expects energy demand growth to bring the global oil market into balance between Q3 2023 and Q1 2024. EIA estimated global liquids fuel production to increases by 1.5 million b/d in 2023 compared with 2022 primarily because of growth from non-OPEC producers. Excluding production from Russia, which is forecast to fall by 0.3 million b/d in 2023, they expect non-OPEC liquid fuels production to increase by 2.2 million b/d in 2023 and by an additional … Continue reading “EIA Expects Energy Demand Growth to Balance Global Oil Market Between Q3 2023 and Q1 2024”

Bank of Canada Holds Rates at 4.50% as Expected, Sees Inflation at 2% End of 2024

Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 4.50% in April 2022, as expected. The move follows the aggressive hikes from last year meetings. The BOC stated that it will continue to monitor the latest economic data for future decisions on the policy rate. The Governing Council believes that current borrowing costs are restrictive enough to bring inflation down to the 2% level and opted to support slowing growth. The Bank had raised eight consecutive rate times pushing borrowing costs … Continue reading “Bank of Canada Holds Rates at 4.50% as Expected, Sees Inflation at 2% End of 2024”