The spectacular rise of the stock markets through 2024 and early 2025 have been powered by a speculative AI mania. There can be little doubt that valuations have got somewhat ahead of themselves by any measure. Yet, as always in manias we hear, this time it is different, but is it? One just has to look at the market reaction to Chinese start-up DeepSeek’s artificial intelligence (AI) models being listed as a free open-source app. They were listed for free … Continue reading “DeepSeek The AI Speculative Bubble Top?”
Using The Market Dislocation Index to Enhance Portfolio Risk Adjusted Returns
We have seen the dislocation of financial markets at breakneck pace within a plethora of imploding asset values and credit balloons. Markets are operating under extremely stressful conditions and experiencing large, widespread asset mispricing. Significant market dislocations have become not uncommon over the past 20 years. They can provide attractive buying opportunities for those prepared to provide liquidity (at a discount) when sellers demand. It’s all down to timing and capitalizing on dislocations has the potential to enhance a portfolio’s … Continue reading “Using The Market Dislocation Index to Enhance Portfolio Risk Adjusted Returns”
Dow Jones Worse First Quarter in 124 years, Where To From Here
The Dow just had the worst 1st quarter in 124 years. The S&P 500 has not been down in these three successive months since 2008. What does history tells about the stock market from here?
Number One Risk for 2018 Is A Brutal Correction of Stock Prices Says French Watchdog
France’s market watchdog Autorite des Marches Financie (AMF) sees as the number risk for 2018 a brutal correction of stock prices. Goldman Sachs Bull/Bear Index is at the highest in almost 50 years. Analysts preach this time its different, is it?
Argentine Peso Collapses 9% to All Time Low As Crisis Deepens
Argentina’s currency the Peso collapsed Monday 9% to an all time low against the US Dollar. Nervous investors continued to dump the Peso carry trade ahead of bond repayments and an IMF meeting in fear of another Argentine Currency Crisis.
Dow’s Biggest Percentage Losses Ever, Today’s 1175 Crash Doesn’t Make Top 10
After Crashing 666 points Friday the Dow Jones index crashed in the biggest points loss ever Monday, 1175 points.To put that in perspective, the loss was ‘just 4.60%”. In 1987 the Dow lost 22.61% at the close. But as we said its all a matter of entry and leverage.
Nobel Prize Winning Economist Nervous About Stock Market
Professor Richard H. Thaler won the Nobel Prize in economics this week and he is nervous about the stock market, admitting he doesn’t understand it. He voiced similar tones to Bill Gross yesterday calling them ‘Fake markets’.
World Bank Warns on Size of Shadow Banking Of Chinese Debt
The World Bank warn the steep growth of shadow banking could trigger a debt crisis in China in it’s October report on the East Asian and Pacific economies. They see Chinese debt levels and it’s “shadow banking” as one of the greatest threats to regional prosperity.