In the June STEO, EIA forecast that despite the extension of OPEC+ production cuts, global liquid fuels production will increase by 1.5 million b/d in 2023 and by 1.3 million b/d in 2024, primarily because of growth from non-OPEC producers. EIA also raised its 2023 world oil demand growth forecast by 30Kbpd, seeing an increase of 1.59m bpd this year. However, the EIA lowered next year’s demand forecast by 20Kbpd to a 1.70 mbpd increase. They see most of this … Continue reading “EIA Sees Brent Higher but Forecast Non-OPEC Growth will Offset OPEC+ Production Cuts”
Central Bank Watch – RBA, BOC, RBI with a Live FOMC Ahead
The Federal Reserve’s next move is overhanging global financial markets, June FOMC is still ‘live’. Ahead of that we sees The BoC, RBA, RBI, CBR and BCRP decisions. The FOMC has gone into communications blackout ahead of the June 14th decision. We look towards the most recent data and mutterings. Friday’s US jobs report confused many with strong jobs growth but at the same time lower earnings and unemployment. Earlier in the week Cleveland Fed President Mester (not an FOMC … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – RBA, BOC, RBI with a Live FOMC Ahead”
PETRONAS Production Sharing at Agua Marinha Block in Brazil with Petrobras, TotalEnergies and QatarEnergy
Malaysian energy group PETRONAS announced today that it’s subsidiary, PETRONAS Petróleo Brasil Ltda. (PPBL) has signed a Production Sharing Contract (PSC) with Petrobras, TotalEnergies and QatarEnergy for the Agua Marinha exploration block located in the Campos Basin, offshore Brazil. Under the PSC terms, Petrobras will be the operator with a 30 per cent participating interest, while TotalEnergies holds 30 per cent and QatarEnergy holds 20 per cent. PETRONAS Vice President of Exploration, Mohd Redhani Abdul Rahman said, “This milestone reinforces … Continue reading “PETRONAS Production Sharing at Agua Marinha Block in Brazil with Petrobras, TotalEnergies and QatarEnergy”
Orange Juice Futures Explode 13% Higher for The Week with Florida Crop Smallest in 86 Years
Orange juice futures prices exploded higher this week, rising 13.48%. The move is in line with FLOJ being the best performing commodity in the first quarter of the year, they were up 30.8%. They are up 71% in the past year. The reason is supply, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates Florida production will fall to only 15.65 million boxes of oranges this season. In the 2021-2022 season Florida growers produced fill 41.2 million boxes. For perspective twenty years ago, … Continue reading “Orange Juice Futures Explode 13% Higher for The Week with Florida Crop Smallest in 86 Years”
Central Bank Watch – Resilient Demand and Inflation Data Confusing Bankers and Analysts
The bond market is turning nervous as we continue to see bond and currency markets roiled by renewed debt ceiling theatrics and more data this week (PCE, GDP Price Index, Services PMI, Personal Income and Spending, Jobless Claims) pointing to resilient demand and inflation. The futures market is now pricing in a 69% probability of a 25-bps hike on June 14th, with peak Fed funds now at 5.33% for the July 26th meeting. Higher for longer is the pricing, the … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Resilient Demand and Inflation Data Confusing Bankers and Analysts”
Central Bank Watch – Fed, New Zealand, Korea, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa on Deck
We continue to see bond and currency markets roiled by renewed debt ceiling theatrics and in that setting we have another busy week of central bankers. We get minutes to the May 2nd – 3rd FOMC meeting which could inform pause versus hike bias and five regional central bank decisions offer modest risk to markets. RBNZ is nearly unanimous expected to hike again, Bank of Korea, Bank Indonesia and the Turkish Central Bank are all expected to extend pauses. The … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Fed, New Zealand, Korea, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa on Deck”
Central Bank Watch – Deluge of BOE, ECB and Fed Speakers including Powell and Bernanke
Three central bank decisions are on the books in the coming week. Most significant is the PBoC’s 1-year Medium-Term Lending Facility Rate at the start of the week (Sunday 9:20pmET). Bankgo Sentral ng Pilipinas and Banco de México (Banxico) are expected to hold their overnight rates at unchanged. In the week ahead we have a deluge of Fed and ECB speakers on the docket highlighted by Federal Reserve Chair Powell and past Chair Bernanke participating Friday in a joint 45-minute … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Deluge of BOE, ECB and Fed Speakers including Powell and Bernanke”
EIA Expects Energy Demand Growth to Balance Global Oil Market Between Q3 2023 and Q1 2024
In the May STEO, EIA expects energy demand growth to bring the global oil market into balance between Q3 2023 and Q1 2024. EIA estimated global liquids fuel production to increases by 1.5 million b/d in 2023 compared with 2022 primarily because of growth from non-OPEC producers. Excluding production from Russia, which is forecast to fall by 0.3 million b/d in 2023, they expect non-OPEC liquid fuels production to increase by 2.2 million b/d in 2023 and by an additional … Continue reading “EIA Expects Energy Demand Growth to Balance Global Oil Market Between Q3 2023 and Q1 2024”
Central Bank Watch – Focus on Inflation Over Banking Crisis, Bank of England Ahead
A busy week for central Banks which mainly went as expected. The Fed raised rates in the face of an unfolding banking crisis. The ECB, Norges Bank, HKMA and Bank Negara all followed suite. A busy week for the Fed; we had the second largest bank failure in U.S. history with First Republic, now three of the top four largest failures over just the past two months. Fed Chair Powell in his Q&A replied, “We on the Committee have a … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Focus on Inflation Over Banking Crisis, Bank of England Ahead”
Brazil Central Bank Left Rates Steady for Sixth Month at 13.75%, Less Likely to Resume Hikes
Banco Central do Brasil kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged for the sixth consecutive meeting in February 2023, in line with market expectations. This was the bank’s first monetary policy meeting after the new government proposed its long-awaited new fiscal rules. The board said it is “less likely” to resume hikes saying they decided to maintain its strategy for a longer period to ensure the convergence of inflation, while won’t hesitate to resume the tightening cycle if the disinflationary process … Continue reading “Brazil Central Bank Left Rates Steady for Sixth Month at 13.75%, Less Likely to Resume Hikes”