Focus on Powell, Fed Loan Survey and RBA Interest Rate

The week was surprised by a more hawkish Federal Reserve chair this week over rate guidance and QT parameters though it barely reduced punts for rate cuts at future meetings. We get more from the Fed this week with a Powell 60 minutes interview and the Fed’s loan survey to inform on credit tightening. Also ahead is ECB inflation expectations and monetary policy decisions from Banxico, Peru, RBA, Poland. India and Thailand. There were no surprises last week from the … Continue reading “Focus on Powell, Fed Loan Survey and RBA Interest Rate”

FAO World Food Price Index Fell in January 2024 to lowest level since February 2021

World food prices as measured by the FAO Food Price Index continued to fall, down for a sixth month to 118 index points in January 2024, the lowest level since February 2021. The index is 13.7 points (10.4%) lower from a year ago, well off the record hit in March 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. Cereals prices were down 2.2% to December 2020-lows as global wheat export prices declined amid strong competition among exporters and arrival of recently harvested supplies … Continue reading “FAO World Food Price Index Fell in January 2024 to lowest level since February 2021”

Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus Fed, BOE, Riksbank Amid Irrational Exuberance

The coming week brings out meetings with the Federal Reserve mulling over rate guidance and QT parameters. Nothing is expected from that statement-only outcome and markets have reduced punts for rate cuts at the March 20th and May 1st meetings. We also have the Bank of England, Riksbank, Hungary and several LatAm central banks, Brazil, Chile and Columbia. They are confronted by a new round of developments such as the shipping crisis in the Middle East that injects further uncertainty … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus Fed, BOE, Riksbank Amid Irrational Exuberance”

Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus BoJ, BoC, Norges, Turkey and ECB

It’s been a quiet start to the year for central bankers, the coming week brings them out confronted by a new round of developments such as the shipping crisis in the Middle East that injects further uncertainty into their plans. We have decisions from Bank of Japan (Tuesday), Bank of Canada, Bank Negara Malaysia (Wednesday), Norges Bank, South African Reserve Bank, Central Bank of Turkey and the European Central Bank (Thursday). Then we have the January 31st FOMC meeting and … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus BoJ, BoC, Norges, Turkey and ECB”

Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus China, Lagarde, Indonesia and Biege Book

Quiet start to the year for central bankers, National Bank of Poland, Central Reserve Bank of Peru and Bank of Korea decisions all as expected. We did get a hotter CPI print before the January 31st FOMC meeting and with those expectations for the Fed’s preferred PCE measure of inflation on January 26th. Nothing is expected from that statement-only outcome and markets have reduced punts for rate cuts at the March 20th and May 1st meetings. Ahead this week we … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus China, Lagarde, Indonesia and Biege Book”

Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on Final CPI Before January 31st FOMC

No surprise with the FOMC minutes as expected though they did the expand rate cut dialogue to remind it isn’t over yet for ates, possibly. For the Fed Thursday brings the final CPI print before the January 31st FOMC meeting and with those expectations for the Fed’s preferred PCE measure of inflation on January 26th. Nothing is expected from that statement-only outcome and markets have reduced punts for rate cuts at the March 20th and May 1st meetings. We also … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on Final CPI Before January 31st FOMC”

Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on Fed Minutes Looking for Clues on Rate Cuts

With the Christmas and New Year’s holidays it’s a very quiet time for Central Banks with no surprises from the BoJ Summary of Opinions and Minutes from the Bank of Korea and Reserve Bank of India. In the New Year it all begins again FOMC minutes to expand on rate cut dialogue with memories of last year’s first Fed meeting that started the rise in rates and sell off in equity markets from record highs still fresh. FOMC Member Barkin … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on Fed Minutes Looking for Clues on Rate Cuts”

Brazil Central Bank Seen Cutting Rates Further in 2024

Following a continuation of lower yields and global inflation estimates Bloomberg reported Brazil analysts lowered their 2024 benchmark interest rate projections further. According to a weekly central bank economist survey published Tuesday the Selic will fall to 9% by December 2024, down from the prior estimate of 9.25%. Borrowing costs will fall to 8.5% by the end of 2025, the release showed. Banco Central do Brasil​ cut the Selic rate 50bps to 11.75% at its December meeting. It was the … Continue reading “Brazil Central Bank Seen Cutting Rates Further in 2024”

Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on BoJ, BoK and RBI Minutes and Opinions

A predictable past week of central bank action, Japan’s BoJ, Columbia’s BanRep, Banco Central de Chile, Hungary’s Central Bank, Bank Indonesia and Central Bank of Turkey all pretty much went to plan. We had big macro numbers that also stayed around consensus including US core PCE, UK core CPI, Japan’s CPI post-BoJ, NZ to issue a mid-year fiscal update and Canadian core CPI. With the Christmas Holidays it’s a very quiet time for Central Banks with just the BoJ Summary … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on BoJ, BoK and RBI Minutes and Opinions”

Bank Indonesia Keeps Rates Unchanged at Highest Level Since 2009 to Support Rupiah

Bank Indonesia kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.00% as universally expected at its December meeting. Governor Warjiyo said, “we will not rush” to ease next year and that they may only have comfort in addressing risks to the stability of the rupiah by “the second half of 2024.” There was little overall effect on the currency or rates. He added the decision was “consistent with the focus of pro-stability monetary policy, to strengthen the stability of the rupiah … Continue reading “Bank Indonesia Keeps Rates Unchanged at Highest Level Since 2009 to Support Rupiah”