Bank of Canada Holds Rates at 5.00%, Economy No Longer in Excess Demand

Bank of Canada held its overnight rate to 5.00% in December 2023 as expected by markets, following up the no change from the previous meeting. The market is pricing in about a 20% chance of a January rate cut. A March cut remains 90% priced in. BOC said “suggest the economy is no longer in excess demand.” BOC saw “further signs that monetary policy is moderating spending and relieving price pressures” The bank repeated that it ” is prepared to … Continue reading “Bank of Canada Holds Rates at 5.00%, Economy No Longer in Excess Demand”

Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on Canada, Australia and India Monetary Policy

In the week ahead decisions by the Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia, Poland’s central bank and the Reserve Bank of India who are all expected to hold. We also get inflation surveys from the ECB and BoE will be among the key highlights. Last week four central the RBNZ, BoT, BoK and Israel all acted as expected. ECB President Lagarde and Fed Chair Powell both emphasized caution on rates peaks and cuts, though the bond and stock markets … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on Canada, Australia and India Monetary Policy”

Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on Lagarde, Israel, New Zealand, Thailand and Korea Central Banks

In the week ahead four central banks are expected to hold, RBNZ, BoT, BoK and Israel. We also get no less than four speeches from ECB President Lagarde and one from Fed Chair Powell. Bankers were busy last week with Riksbank, Bank Indonesia, SARB, and Iceland sat pat as expected. Turkey’s central bank delivered a much larger hike pushing rates to 40%. Chinese banks left LPRs unchanged. Hungary as expected cut again. Data wise there is plenty for rate watchers, … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on Lagarde, Israel, New Zealand, Thailand and Korea Central Banks”

Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on RBA, ECB and FOMC Minutes, Riksbank, Indonesia and Turkey Likely Hikes

A quiet week as expected for central bank watchers as far as monetary policy decisions went with the only rate decision from Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) with no change. The slew of Fed, ECB and BOE speakers mentioned nothing surprising, just the usual doublespeak. In the week ahead we have more activity, BoC’s Macklem to speak on inflation’s costs, we get FOMC, Banxico, ECB and RBA minutes. Riksbank, Bank Indonesia and Turkey’s central bank may hike again. Chinese banks … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on RBA, ECB and FOMC Minutes, Riksbank, Indonesia and Turkey Likely Hikes”

Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on Overload of Fed, ECB and BoE Speeches

The past week went as expected for central bank watchers as far as monetary policy decisions went, however Fed Chair Powell in his speech at the IMF shook the market up with regards to higher rates. The RBA hiked, Banxico held, Peru as expected cut rates. Poland’s central bank unexpectedly halted its easing cycle. Data risk is focused on global inflation and inflation expectations. In the week ahead eyes will be on what looks like an overload of Fed. BoE … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on Overload of Fed, ECB and BoE Speeches”

Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on RBA and Powell Again

The week ahead will be a much lighter for central bank watchers but there still plenty of interest. The RBA is being pressured to hike, two LatAm central banks may hold (Banxico) and cut (Peru). National Bank of Poland is expected to cut rates. We’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell again, with a slew of Fed speakers. Data risk is focused on global inflation and inflation expectations. Central Banks delivered for the most part as expected last week. The FOMC, … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on RBA and Powell Again”

Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead FOMC, BoJ, BoE, BoC, Norges, BanRep, Brazil, Bank Negara

Another busy week ahead for central bank watchers. The FOMC is expected to stay on hold amid upside risks to inflation. We have the BoJ with an eye on policy tweaks, the BoE is expected to hold as the macro environment sours. In Canada the BoC’s Macklem has two speeches to give. The Norges Bank and BanRep are expected to pause, and Brazil’s central bank is likely to cut again. Bank Negara is playing defense on ringgit weakness. The Treasury … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead FOMC, BoJ, BoE, BoC, Norges, BanRep, Brazil, Bank Negara”

Bank of Canada Holds Rates at 5.00%, Cuts 2023 Growth Forecast To 1.2% from 1.8%

Bank of Canada held its overnight rate to 5.00% in October 2023 as expected by markets, following up the no change from the previous meeting. BOC sees “clearer signs that monetary policy is moderating spending and relieving price pressures” “There is growing evidence that past interest rate increases are dampening economic activity and relieving price pressures”. The bank repeated that it” is prepared to increase the policy interest rate further if needed”. The BOC cut 2023 growth forecast to 1.2% … Continue reading “Bank of Canada Holds Rates at 5.00%, Cuts 2023 Growth Forecast To 1.2% from 1.8%”

Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on ECB, BoC, Chile, Turkey, Hungary, Russia and Israel

The Treasury market continues to respond to hotter inflation, greater supply and credit risk, PBOC, Fed Chair Powell and Bank of Korea offered nothing new in that regard. Bank Indonesia surprised markets with an unexpected 25bps to address weakness in the rupiah that raises risks to financial stability and imported inflation, it didn’t work. The week ahead focus will be on the ECB, Bank of Canada, Banco Central de Chile, Central Bank of Turkey, National Bank of Hungary, Central Bank … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on ECB, BoC, Chile, Turkey, Hungary, Russia and Israel”

Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on PBOC and Fed’s Powell

Another violent week in the Treasury market with hotter inflation reports but more geopolitical risk with Hammas and Israel adding to the Russian Ukraine war. The ECB and Federal Reserve minutes told us nothing new, nor did speeches by Federal Reserve, ECB and Bank of England officials. Of note in the week ahead will be the PBOC’s decision into the Monday Asian market open and Fed Chair Powell’s address on Thursday. Bank Indonesia and Bank of Korea are both expected … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on PBOC and Fed’s Powell”