Soybean prices saw a sharp short covering bounce Friday, with nearby contracts rising more than 3% higher. For the week though Soybeans were still down .50% for the week. USDA’s September WASDE report is expected to slightly raise its estimates for 2022/23 soybean ending stocks from 245 million bushels in August to 247 million bushels this month.
China continues to regularly draw down its imported soybean stockpile in an attempt to boost local supplies and tamp down high prices. Brazil is forecast to have a bumper crop this coming season.
FAO World Food Price Index Fell in August for Fifth Consecutive Month
Falling prices for crops could add to hopes that inflation could ease with optimism already there after this week’s CPI and PPI reports for July. World food prices have already declined by the most since 2008 this past August.
Food prices have reversed sharply after being almost vertical for the past year, world food prices as measured by the FAO Food Price Index fell for the fifth consecutive month in August. The index was down 2.7 points (1.9%) from July, however remained 10.1 points (7.9%) above its value a year ago. At 138.0 the index is well under the record high 159.7 from March. Price falls were seen in all the five sub-indices of the FFPI in August, with monthly percentage declines ranging from 1.4 percent for cereals to 3.3 percent for vegetable oils.
FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 163.3 points in August, down 5.5 points (3.3 percent) month-on-month, pushing the index value slightly below its year-earlier level. The continued decline of the index was driven by lower world prices of palm, sunflower and rapeseed oils, which more than offset higher soyoil quotations. International palm oil prices fell for the fifth consecutive month in August, driven by increasing export availabilities from Indonesia, mainly thanks to lower export taxes, as well as seasonally rising outputs in Southeast Asia.
In the meantime, world sunflower oil values declined on lingering subdued global import demand that coincided with the gradual resumption of shipments from Ukraine’s seaports. International quotations for rapeseed oil also dropped in August, due to prospects of ample supplies for the upcoming 2022/23 season. By contrast, world soyoil prices rebounded only moderately, mainly because of concerns over the impact of unfavorable weather conditions on soybean production in the United States of America.
USDA’s release last month of the June 30 Acreage report had USDA took off 2.6 million acres from the March 31 soybean planting estimate, dropping it to 88.3 million acres. There is still deep concern is soaring fertilizer prices due to the war in Ukraine restricting the bullish production forecasts from major South American producers Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay.
Soybeans Futures Highlights
- September futures prices rose 18.75 cents to $14.8925 Friday
- November futures up 27.25 cents to $14.1325.
- Soymeal futures ended Friday with $4.80 to $5.70/ton gains, limiting the week’s loss for October to $9.20/ton.
- BO futures were also firm on the week’s last trade day, closing 159 to 164 points higher in the front months. BO futures were still 126 points weaker from Friday to Friday. $12.20/ton so far into the weekend. BO prices are 93 to 108 points stronger.
- Soybean basis bids were steady across most Midwestern locations on Friday but did firm 3 cents at an Ohio elevator and climb 20 cents higher at an Illinois river terminal today.
- Preliminary volume estimates were for 91,201 contracts, sliding moderately below Thursday’s final count of 120,307.
Soybeans Technical Outlook
Soybeans continued lower after it broke the triple bottom and the cloud twist after prices were rejected harshly at the tenkan, off the Kijun and under the 50 wma finding support at 6/8. Support at the Cloud gave way, and we sit near the January breakup. On the way down soybeans rejected the Kijun and channel retest to spit back the 50wma. The weekly cloud and Murray mingle around the $14.6/bushel benchmark are massive.
Recall beans broke down from the bull pennant framed by +4/8 and +1/8 with the Kijun unable to sustain support right at the breakout. Support at the 50wma gave way to under the futures pivot at $15/bushel benchmarks and at the close of the week was a magnet to the recovery bounce. Pressure came from futures spitting the Weekly +4/8 over $17.50/bushel three times. The market needs to rebalance that energy.
USDA Domestic Soybean Crush
USDA reported that the domestic soybean crush in July totaled 181 million bushels, up from 174 million bushels in June and 166 million bushels a year ago. Refined soyoil production reached 1.68 billion pounds in July, which was a 2% increase from June.
USDA Weekly Inspections
The weekly Inspections report from USDA had 436,851 MT of soybeans shipped during the week of 8/25. That was down from 686.8k MT last week and compares to 387k MT shipped during the same week last year.
August USDA WASDE Soybean report
USDA presented its first survey-based soybean yield forecast in this month’s WASDE report, pegging average yields at 51.9 bushels per acre. That was a monthly increase of 0.4 bpa. Analysts were expecting to see a 0.4 bpa decrease, in contrast. Production potential moved 26 million bushels higher to 4.53 billion bushels, with USDA explaining that higher yields more than offset lower harvested area.
Soybean USDA June 30 Acreage Report Highlights
Combined corn and soybean acreage fell 2.2 million acres lower than the earlier Prospective Planting estimates.
USDA took off 2.6 million acres from the March 31 soybean planting estimate, dropping it to 88.3 million acres. It now trails 2017 (90.2M ac.) and 2018 (89.2M ac.) as the third largest U.S. soybean crop on record.
The results for soybeans and wheat hinted at smaller than expected demand usage rates between March 1, 2022 and June 1, 2022.
Estimated soybean plantings increased 1% from a year ago, with 88.3 million acres this season. Analysts were much more bullish in their expectations, offering an average trade guess of 90.446 million acres prior to today’s report. USDA’s March estimates were also more aggressive, when the agency pegged the 2022 footprint at 90.955 million acres. USDA notes that planted acres are steady or higher in 24 out of 29 states.
South American Production Estimates
- USDA’s new South American production estimates for 2021/22 firmed.
- Brazilian production increased to 4.629 billion bushels,
- Argentine production increased to 1.595 billion bushels.
Brazil
Brazil is the world’s largest producer of Soybeans and imports 85% of its fertilizers, mostly from Russia. The recent WASDE report cited strong export sales and a reduced export forecast for Brazil.
Brazilian soybean exports in August reached 226.3 million bushels, versus year-ago results of 238.1 million bushels. CONAB sees Brazilian soybean output as 125.55 MMT for 21/22, which was up slightly from their August figure.
Canada
Production estimates from StatsCan show the canola crop should reach 19.499 MMT, up from 13.8 MMT last year (revised up from their prior 12.6 MMT figure). The trade was looking for StatsCan to report 19.6 MMT. For soybeans, Canada is expected to harvest 6.4 MMT, up from 6.27 MMT last year, and above the 6.2 average trade guess.
Argentina
Argentina has exported 1.4 MMT of soybean meal so far this month which puts the country on pace to ship 2.2 MMT. This is 400 K below both last month and a year ago.
The Argentine Agriculture Ministry reports producer sales of the 20/21 soybean harvest total 20.4 MMT as of mid-July, down 19% versus a year ago.
Ukraine
Ukraine’s sunflower and soybean harvests have begun. The country’s sunflower harvest is just 1% complete, with a total production of 81,700 metric tons so far. Ukraine is a significant player on the world sunflower oil export market.
Soybean Exports
The 2022/23 marketing year for corn and soybeans is right around the corner, starting on September 1. “There is a lot of optimism for the 2022/23 soybean export season,” according to Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland. “In early August 2022, outstanding export orders for the 2022/23 marketing year stood at 578.4 million bushels, over 1.3 times higher than the same time a year ago.”
EU Imports
The EU’s June crush volume fell 12% to the lowest level this year with 13% fewer soybeans at 1.2 MMT processed.
European Union soybean imports during the 2021/22 marketing year have reached 518.8 million bushels through June 19, which is slightly below last year’s pace so far. EU soymeal imports are also lower year-over-year, with 16.04 million metric tons.
China Imports
USDA-FAS issued a report yesterday that showed China’s soybean imports are likely to fall due to waning demand from its swine and poultry sectors. The report expects China’s 2022/23 soybean imports to total 3.546 billion bushels. USDA’s Ag Attache reduced their forecast for Chinese soybean imports, with 21/22 needs lowered to 92 MMT and 22/23 reduced to 96.5 MMT.
China’s agriculture ministry reduced its estimates for the country’s 2021/22 soybean imports by 2.1% to 3.344 billion bushels, citing lower demand amid hog herd losses. If realized, soybean imports will be down 8.8% from a year ago. Brazil and the United States are by far the top two suppliers.
China once again plans to auction off 18.4 million bushels of its state imported soybean reserves on September 16. Similarly sized auctions have been routine throughout the year in an attempt to boost local supplies and tamp down high prices.
Taiwan Imports
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 3.8 million bushels of soybeans for delivery to Taiwan during the 2022/23 marketing year, which began September 1.
USDA-ERS Report
Last month the USDA-ERS report shows soybean exports for fiscal year 2022 are now valued at $32.3 billion, with higher volumes more than offsetting lower unit values. This is a $1.0 billion from USDA’s prior February forecast and would be a record.
According to the U.S. Agricultural Export Development Council, a new study confirms USDA-Foreign Agricultural Service export market development programs boosted ag exports by an average of $9.6 billion annually from 1977 to 2019, representing 13.7% of total ag export value, and returning $24.50 in additional net export revenue for every dollar spent on export promotion.
The study was commissioned by the U.S. Grains Council on behalf of members of the U.S. Agricultural Export Development Council to evaluate USDA’s Market Access Program and Foreign Market Development program. MAP and FMD, which are authorized by the farm bill, are vital to providing opportunities to develop or grow demand for U.S. products in foreign markets.
Developed by IHS Markit in cooperation with Dr. Gary Williams and Dr. Oral Capps at Texas A&M University, both experts on evaluating the economic performance of trade promotion programs, the study updated a 2016 edition also evaluating MAP and FMD, which are currently authorized by the 2018 Farm Bill. The new study also took a first look at the impact of investments through the Agricultural Trade Promotion (ATP) program.
According to the U.S. Agricultural Export Development Council, a new study confirms USDA-Foreign Agricultural Service export market development programs boosted ag exports by an average of $9.6 billion annually from 1977 to 2019, representing 13.7% of total ag export value, and returning $24.50 in additional net export revenue for every dollar spent on export promotion.
The study was commissioned by the U.S. Grains Council on behalf of members of the U.S. Agricultural Export Development Council to evaluate USDA’s Market Access Program and Foreign Market Development program. MAP and FMD, which are authorized by the farm bill, are vital to providing opportunities to develop or grow demand for U.S. products in foreign markets.
Ryan LeGrand, USGC and CEO, says USGC was glad to lead in this effort to demonstrate the long-term impact of the market export programs. “We know from our history that our work helps, as our mission says, improve lives. This study helps us put numbers to those outcomes for our organization and our whole sector within the agriculture industry,” he says.
Developed by IHS Markit in cooperation with Dr. Gary Williams and Dr. Oral Capps at Texas A&M University, both experts on evaluating the economic performance of trade promotion programs, the study updated a 2016 edition also evaluating MAP and FMD, which are currently authorized by the 2018 Farm Bill. The new study also took a first look at the impact of investments through the Agricultural Trade Promotion (ATP) program.
“Our work indicated that MAP and FMD have accounted for 13.7%, or almost $648 billion, of all the revenue generated by U.S. agricultural exports between 1977 and 2019,” says Williams. “The additional export revenue bolsters the entire U.S agricultural sector and creates a multiplier effect throughout the U.S. economy.”
Effect of Higher Input Costs on Farmers
A recent report by the Agricultural and Food Policy Center (AFPC) at Texas A&M University shows higher input prices are having a larger impact on farmers than originally thought.
- Net cash farm income on the representative feed grain and oilseed farms is projected to decline by an average of $534,000 from 2021 to 2022 across the 25 feed grain and oilseed farms.
- Representative wheat farms face an average reduction in net cash farm income of $399,000.
- Representative cotton farms face an average reduction in net cash farm income of $716,000.
- Rice farms face the largest reduction in net cash farm income per farm at $880,000 and a per acre reduction of $442.
Compiled by Joe Outlaw, Ph.D., and Bart Fischer, Ph.D., co-directors of the AFPC.
COT on Commodities
- The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed managed money soybean traders were closing more longs than shorts through the week of 9/6. The 7,242 contract lighter OI left the specs 2,172 contracts less net long to 99,629 contracts.
- Commercial soybean traders lightened their net short by 5.7k contracts to 133.6k via net new buying and closing short hedges.
- In soymeal managed money firms were rotating existing longs to new shorts for a net 12,005 contract swing. They were still 81,621 contracts net long as of 9/6. The funds were also closing longs and adding new shorts in BO, for a 5.2k contract lighter net long of 44k contracts.
Commodity Round Up
Highlights
- The Bloomberg Commodities Index slipped 0.5% (up 19.5% y-t-d).
- Spot Gold increased 0.3% to $1,717 (down 6.1%).
- Silver rallied 4.5% to $18.86 (down 19.1%).
- WTI crude was little changed at $86.79 (up 15%).
- Gasoline fell 1.2% (up 9%),
- Natural Gas dropped 9.0% to $8.00 (up 114%).
- Copper recovered 4.5% (down 20%).
- Wheat surged 7.2% (up 13%),
- Corn rose 2.9% (up 16%).
- Bitcoin jumped $1,348, or 6.8%, this week to $21,308 (down 54%).
Source: USDA, Farm Progress
From The TradersCommunity Research Desk