Solid U.S. 20-year Treasury Bond Auction with Indirect Bidders Taking Down 75%

U.S. Treasuries back-end drew interest from buyers after the completion of the $15 billion 20-year Treasury bond reopening which saw a high yield of 4.072% with a healthy 2.64 bid-to-cover ratio. Indirect bidders accounted for 75% of the accepted bids. The desk gave an A- rating on the auction. The 3-mo/10-yr spread widened to 53 basis points from 38 basis points and contributed to the hard-landing concerns along with a dismal holiday quarter sales outlook from Target (TGT) in their Q3 earnings report

Today’s $15 bln 20-yr bond -2.9 basis point indicative of strong international demand. The desk gave an A- rating on the auction.

  • The domestic demand was below its six-month average indicative of softer domestic demand
  • International demand (indirect) was also comfortably above the six-month average
  • Primary dealers were left with just under 10% versus normal around 14.3%

Auction Highlights

  • Duration: 20 Years
  • Amount:  $15 billion
  • High yield 4.072%
  • WI level 4.101%
  • Tail -2.9 bps
  • Bid to cover 2.64X vs 2.53X
  • Directs (domestic demand) 15.4% vs 6 month avg of 17.6%
  • Indirects (international demand) 75.4% vs 6 month avg of 70.3%
  • Dealers 9.3% vs 6 month average of 12.1%

Auction grade: A-

Yields after the auction

  • 2-yr: +2 bps to 4.37%
  • 3-yr: -1 bp to 4.15%
  • 5-yr: -5 bps to 3.87%
  • 10-yr: -9 bps to 3.71%
  • 30-yr: -12 bps to 3.87%

Prior auction results:

  • High yield: 4.395%
  • Bid-to-cover: 2.50X
  • Indirect bid: 63.7%
  • Direct bid: 16.43%

Average results of previous 12 auctions:

  • High yield: 2.750%
  • Bid-to-cover: 2.50
  • Indirect bid: 68.1%
  • Direct bid: 17.8%

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