The EIA nade a series of forecasts for the likely share of solar power for US electricity over the next thirty years. In 2020 solar power accounted for 3% of U.S. electricity generation from all sources. The agency forecasts that solar will account for 20% of U.S. electricity generation in 2050.
EIA US Solar Power Projections
Solar power accounted for 3%
- Solar will account for 4% in 2021
- 5% in 2022.
- 14% in 2035
- 20% in 2050
via EIA Electric Power Annual,
These data include electricity generated from both utility-scale (those of 1 megawatt or more generating capacity) and small-scale (less than 1 megawatt) solar facilities in the electric power, residential, commercial, and industrial sectors.
EIA long-term projections show the electric power sector continues to produce the most solar generation, increasing from 68% of total solar generation in 2020 to 78% in 2050. The growing share of utility-scale generation is due in part to the availability of a 10% Investment Tax Credit (ITC) after 2023; in contrast, the ITC for small-scale solar has expired.
EIA said the AEO2021’s projected share of solar generation is affected by assumptions about the installed and operating costs of other generating technologies, particularly in later years of the projection period when the projected trends in solar are increasingly influenced by economic factors rather than policy.
- In a sensitivity case in which natural gas prices are higher than in the Reference case (the Low Oil and Gas Supply case), solar generation reaches 25% of total generation by 2050, compared with 20% in the Reference case.
- In another sensitivity case in which installed costs of renewables are lower than in the Reference case (the Low Renewables Costs case), solar generation makes up 27% of total generation by 2050.
Source: EIA
From The TradersCommunity US Research Desk