EIA Reports +20 Bcf Build in Natural Gas Inventories

The EIA releases it’s weekly natural gas storage report each Thursday at 10.30 ET, the key data point for natural gas traders outside of weather modelling. This week another build is expected.

EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 7/28/17
Release Time: 
Thursday August 3 2017 10:30 ET

Natural gas futures again have been in the doldrums in a very tight range under 2.90. Again the risk is South Central in forecasts. Sabine Pass deliveries continue to struggle. They fell to 1.5 Bcf/d with the late cycles and yesterday increased +0.3 to 1.9 Bcf/d.  LNG feedgas demand and exports to Mexico at or near all-time highs, adding 0.1 Bcf/d of additional demand each compared to the previous week.

Weather wise models continue with volatility. Forecasts look normal for next week but nothing constructive.

Market Expectations

Market Expectations
Actual +20 Bcf Prior  +17 Bcf
Consensus Forecast  +19 Bcf
Cons. Range: +14 to +32 Bcf
EIA swap: +19 to +20 @ CT 15.13

Last Week’s Report +17 Bcf #TCNG


EIA Storage Report

Source: Criterion Research


Bentek Flow Model is at 15 Bcf and its S/D Model slightly higher at 16 Bcf.

“US fundamentals were largely in line with the previous week, and the total injection is likely to end up close to last week’s announced 17-Bcf build”. Power burn demand increased by a modest 0.3 Bcf/d from the previous week, which was largely offset by a 0.2 Bcf/d increase in production. Exports were the major contributor to some tightness in the market compared to the previous week, with both LNG feedgas demand and exports to Mexico hitting at or near all-time highs, adding 0.1 Bcf/d of additional demand each compared to the previous week.

Even with sustained heat across much of the US, total storage activity fell largely in line with the previous week. Bentek also noted that the surplus to the 5-year average has dwindled “and at the current pace of erosion, could turn to a storage deficit by mid-September. This could lead to inventories entering the Winter close to 3.7 Tcf, which would be more than 100 Bcf below five-year average levels and roughly 300 Bcf below last year.”

Analysts Forecasts

  • Tim Evans, CITI: 32 Bcf
  • Donnie Sharp, Huntsville Utils: 28 Bcf
  • Kilduff Report: 26 Bcf
  • SNL Survey: 25 Bcf
  • Andy Weissman, EBW: 24 Bcf
  • Schneider Electric: 24 Bcf
  • Criterion:+23 Bcf
  • Bentek S/D Model: 16 Bcf.
  • Robry825: 16 Bcf
  • PIRA: 16 Bcf
  • Bloomberg Energy: 16 Bcf
  • TFS: 15 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: 15 Bcf
  • Jared Hunter: 14 Bcf

The Fundamental Edge with Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

Natural Gas Storage Futures weekly EIA storage futures 8/2 (EIA Swap) 


Current Storage Level vs. Last Year & 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 2,990 Bcf Storage
  • 2016/Same Week: 3,292 Bcf/Delta -302 Bcf (9.2%)
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2,879 Bcf/Delta +111 Bcf (3.9%)

Further Energy Analysis http://www.oottnews.com/index.html

Sources: TradersCommunity Reseach, Criterion Research

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