EIA Reports +51 Bcf Build in Natural Gas Inventories

The EIA releases it’s weekly natural gas storage report each Thursday at 10.30 ET, the key data point for natural gas traders outside of weather modelling. This week another build is expected.

EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 10/12/17 Release TimeThursday October 19 2017 10:30 ET

Like Groundhog Day Natural gas hub futures has tried and failed all week to get over $3.00 and failed yet again as weather demand fails and production has come back on. Upside risk remains Cheniere Train 4 as LNG feedgas demand and exports to Mexico continue near all-time highs. Forecasts look normal for next week but nothing constructive. Bets will start being placed on 4T storage at year end at this pace.  

Market Expectations

  • Actual + 51 Bcf Prior  +87 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  +51 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +42 to +64 Bcf
  • EIA swap: +45 to +46 @ CT 15.13

Last Week’s Report +87 Bcf #TCNG

 EIA Storage Report

Weather lower 48 states 9 20

NG Mexican Exports 9 20 17

NG Canadian Flows 9 20 17

Source: Criterion Research

Bentek

  • Bentek S/D Model: +49  Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: +44  Bcf

Analysts Build Forecasts

  • Kidduff Report + 64 Bcf
  • Tim Evans Citi +63 Bcf
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +62 Bcf
  • Bloomberg Survey +61 Bcf
  • Raymond James +60 Bcf
  • Norse Gas +58 Bcf
  • Andy Wiessman +57 Bcf
  • Peter Marrin SNL +55 Bcf
  • Reuters Survey +55 Bcf
  • Schneider Electric +54 Bcf
  • DJ Survey +53 Bcf
  • Criterion +51 Bcf
  • Bentek S/D +49 Bcf
  • Gabe Harris +48 Bcf
  • Genscape +46 Bcf
  • Charlie Fenner Macquarie +45 Bcf
  • Shuya Li Pira +45 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow +44 Bcf
  • Robry +43 Bcf
  • Jared Hunter 42 Bcf

The Fundamental Edge with Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

Natural Gas Storage Futures weekly EIA storage futures 10/18 (EIA Swap) 

 

 

 Current Storage Level vs. Last Year & 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 3,595 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 3748
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 3603

EIA NG Storage Range 10 11 17

Further Energy Analysis: Criterion Research

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, Criterion Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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