EIA Reports +53 Bcf Build in Natural Gas Inventories

The EIA releases it’s weekly natural gas storage report each Thursday at 10.30 ET, the key data point for natural gas traders outside of weather modelling. This week another build is expected.

EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 8/10/17
Release Time: 
Thursday August 17 2017 10:30 ET

Natural gas futures failed again at 3.00 and are back under 2.90 on bearish weather, with the upside risk Cheniere Train 4. South Central production has topped recent highs at 33.865 Bcf/d.  LNG feedgas demand and exports to Mexico are at or near all-time highs. Forecasts look normal for next week but nothing constructive.

Market Expectations

Market Expectations
Actual +53 Bcf Prior  +28 Bcf
Consensus Forecast  +49 Bcf
Cons. Range: +35 to +54 Bcf
EIA swap: +48 to +49 @ CT 15.13

Last Week’s Report +28 Bcf #TCNG

 EIA Storage Report

Source: Criterion Research


  • Bentek S/D Model: +47 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: +48 Bcf

Bentek Flow Model is  48-Bcf build and the S/D Model is a little lower at 47 Bcf. “Week on week, total demand is estimated to have fallen by an average 1.9 Bcf/d, with a 2.4 Bcf/d average decline in estimated power burn demand being partially offset by an increase in res-comm and industrial demand. The strongest declines in power burn demand occurred in the midcon market (0.8 Bcf/d) and Northeast (0.7 Bcf/d) cell regions, where population weighted temperatures averaged 4.5 and 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit cooler, respectively, compared to the previous week”.

“In the South, declines in Texas and midcon producing burn were mostly offset by a rise in southeastern burn, for an aggregate decline of 0.1 Bcf/d in total. The regions experiencing largest estimated changes in storage activity compared to the previous week are the East and Midwest.” 

Analysts Forecasts

  •  Bloomberg Energy: 54 Bcf
  •  The desk Editor: 52 Bcf
  •  Robry825: 52 Bcf
  •  Andy Weissman, EBW: 51 Bcf
  •  Reza Haidari, TR Analytics: 51 Bcf
  •  Kilduff Report: 51 Bcf
  •  Genscape: 51 Bcf
  • Criterion Research:+45 Bcf
  • Raymond James: 43 Bcf
  • TFS: 44 Bcf
  • PointLogic Energy: 43 Bcf
  • Tim Evans, CITI: 35 Bcf

The Fundamental Edge with Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

Natural Gas Storage Futures weekly EIA storage futures 8/15 (EIA Swap) 


 Current Storage Level vs. Last Year & 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 3,038 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 3,313 Bcf/Delta -275 Bcf (8.3%)
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2,977 Bcf/Delta +61 Bcf (2.0%)  

Further Energy Analysis http://www.oottnews.com/index.html

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, Criterion Research

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