EIA Reports – 33 Bcf Draw in Natural Gas Inventories

The EIA releases it’s weekly natural gas storage report each Thursday at 10.30 ET, the key data point for natural gas traders outside of weather modelling. This week another build is expected.   

The EIA releases it’s weekly natural gas storage report each Thursday at 10.30 ET, the key data point for natural gas traders outside of weather modelling. This week The market is expecting a smaller build. Natural gas hub futures are in the midst of testing a major weekly pennant as colder weather demand surfaces. 

With futures expiration and weather models natural gas futures have finished the month volatile. Northeast production set another record high at 26.3 Bcf/d. Upside risk remains Cheniere Train 4 as LNG feedgas demand and exports to Mexico continue near all-time highs. Forecasts look normal for next week but nothing constructive. Weather models continue to point to a cold 11-15 day forecast with average US temps dropping into the low 40’s. Sabine Pass deliveries dropped 666/d to 2.5 Bcf/d yesterday. There is chatter that a reclassifications or revision will be in this week’s EIA report. 

EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 11/23/17

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release TimeThursday November 30 2017 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual –  33 Bcf  Prior   – 46 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  -37 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -28 to -51 Bcf
  • EIA swap: -35 to -36 @ CT 15.13

Last Week’s Report -46  Bcf #TCNG

 EIA Storage Report

Lower 48 Temps 10 20

NG Mexican Exports 9 20 17

NG Canadian Flows 9 20 17

Source: Criterion Research

Bentek says “Week on week, every region but the Southeast and Texas saw warmer average temperatures than the week before, with the major res-comm demand centers of the Northeast and midcontinent markets seeing average temperatures 2.7 and 1 degrees warmer, accounting for the vast majority of the decrease in total demand week on week.”

Total demand in the Northeast was estimated to have fallen by 2.6 Bcf/d compared to the previous week, while midcon market demand fell by an estimated 0.9 Bcf/d. Sample activity in the East region showed a withdrawal significantly weaker than the previous week at a total 12.7 Bcf compared to 19.9 Bcf. 

Bentek

  • Bentek S/D Model: -40 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: -31 Bcf

Analysts Draw Forecasts

  • Robry  -51 Bcf
  • Tim Evans Citi  -46 Bcf
  • TFS -42 Bcf
  • Genscape  -41 Bcf
  • Kidduff Report  -40 Bcf
  • Bentek S/D -40 Bcf
  • Criterion -40 Bcf
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville – 39 Bcf
  • Reuters Survey  -38 Bcf
  • Bloomberg Survey -38 Bcf
  • Gabe Harris  -37 Bcf
  • DJ Survey -37 Bcf
  • Peter Marrin SNL -36 Bcf
  • Schneider Electric -36 Bcf
  • Point Logic -35 Bcf
  • Andy Wiessman -35 Bcf
  • Shuya Li Pira -32 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow -31 Bcf
  • Raymond James -30 Bcf

 The Fundamental Edge with @BrynneKKelly

  

 

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year & 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 3,726 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 4045
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 3847

EIA NG Storage Range 10 11 17

Further Energy Analysis: Criterion Research

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, Criterion Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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