EIA Reports -18 Bcf Draw in Natural Gas Inventories

The EIA releases it’s weekly natural gas storage report each Thursday at 10.30 ET, the key data point for natural gas traders outside of weather modelling. This week another build is expected.   

The EIA releases it’s weekly natural gas storage report each Thursday at 10.30 ET, the key data point for natural gas traders outside of weather modelling. This week The market is expecting a smaller build. Natural gas hub futures are in the midst of testing a major weekly pennant as colder weather demand surfaces. 

Upside risk remains Cheniere Train 4 as LNG feedgas demand and exports to Mexico continue near all-time highs. Forecasts look normal for next week but nothing constructive. Bets will start being placed on 4T storage at year end at this pace. Northeast production continues to set records. There is chatter that a reclassifications or revision will be in this week’s EIA report.Here come the draws…

EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 11/9/17

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release TimeThursday November 16 2017 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual – 18 Bcf  Prior  +15 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  -14 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -23 to -4 Bcf
  • EIA swap: -16 to -15 @ CT 15.13

Last Week’s Report +15 Bcf #TCNG

 EIA Storage Report

Lower 48 Temps 10 20

NG Mexican Exports 9 20 17

NG Canadian Flows 9 20 17

Source: Criterion Research

Bentek says. “Estimates for the week started out significantly higher for both supply-demand implied storage models and storage sample models, with Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday of the week showing significantly larger implied and sampled withdrawals in all regions. From the beginning of the week to the end of the week, six of eight cell regions saw average temperatures drop by more than 10 degrees Fahrenheit.

Tough it would appear that the Midwest region saw the largest shift in sample activity week over week, Deward reported a 2.25 Bcf withdrawal on Nov. 6 to correct a large withdrawal of near the same magnitude the previous week that was reported erroneously, skewing the week-on-week change. Ignoring that effect shows the East region as having demonstrated the largest week-on-week shift in sample activity, at a net withdrawal of 9 Bcf compared to 1 Bcf the week prior.”

Bentek

  • Bentek S/D Model: -12 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: -18 Bcf

Analysts Build Forecasts

        • Kidduff Report  -4 Bcf
        • Robry  -5 Bcf
        • Donnie Sharp Huntsville -6 Bcf
        • Point Logic -6 Bcf
        • Andy Wiessman -8 Bcf
        • TFS -10 Bcf
        • Shuya Li Pira -11 Bcf
  • Bentek S/D -12 Bcf
  • Raymond James -13 Bcf
      • Reuters Survey  -14 Bcf
      • Schneider Electric -14 Bcf
      • Gabe Harris  -14 Bcf
      • Bloomberg Survey -14 Bcf
      • DJ Survey -14 Bcf
      • Jared Hunter -16 Bcf
      • Peter Marrin SNL -16 Bcf
      • Criterion -17 Bcf
      • Bentek Flow -18 Bcf
      • Genscape  -22 Bcf
      • Tim Evans Citi  -23 Bcf

The Fundamental Edge with Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

Natural Gas Storage Futures weekly EIA storage futures 11/14 (EIA Swap) 

 

 

 Current Storage Level vs. Last Year & 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 3,790 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 4009
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 3861

EIA NG Storage Range 10 11 17

Further Energy Analysis: Criterion Research

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, Criterion Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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