EIA Reports +65 Bcf Build in Natural Gas Inventories

The EIA releases it’s weekly natural gas storage report each Thursday at 10.30 ET, the key data point for natural gas traders outside of weather modelling. This week another build is expected.   

The EIA releases it’s weekly natural gas storage report each Thursday at 10.30 ET, the key data point for natural gas traders outside of weather modelling. This week another build is expected. Natural gas hub futures again have sold off as weather demand fails and production has come back on. 

Upside risk remains Cheniere Train 4 as LNG feedgas demand and exports to Mexico continue near all-time highs. Forecasts look normal for next week but nothing constructive. Bets will start being placed on 4T storage at year end at this pace. Overall production was up an average 0.7 Bcf/d compared to the previous week, with Southeast production driving most of the gain at 0.4 Bcf/d over the previous week’s levels Bentek said.

EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 10/26/17 Release TimeThursday November 2 2017 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual +65 Bcf Prior  +64 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  +64 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +52 to +71 Bcf
  • EIA swap: +65 to +66 @ CT 15.13

Last Week’s Report +64 Bcf #TCNG

 EIA Storage Report

Lower 48 Temps 10 20

NG Mexican Exports 9 20 17

NG Canadian Flows 9 20 17

Source: Criterion Research

From Bentek “Overall production was up an average 0.7 Bcf/d compared to the previous week, with Southeast production driving most of the gain at 0.4 Bcf/d over the previous week’s levels. The midcontinent region showed the next largest gain in production of around 0.1 Bcf/d. The increase in overall production was partially offset by an increase in total US demand of 0.3 Bcf/d, driven by a 0.7 Bcf/d increase in the midcon market cell region. The clear majority of the regional gain was from rescomm demand, as population-weighted temperatures in the region averaged 3.4 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than the previous week at 55 degrees F,” 

Bentek

  • Bentek S/D Model: +68  Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: +66 Bcf

Analysts Build Forecasts

    • Criterion +72 Bcf
    • TFS +71 Bcf
    • Schneider Electric +70 BcfR
    • aymond James +70 Bcf
    • Bentek S/D +68 Bcf
    • Jared Hunter +67 Bcf
    • Norse Gas +67 Bcf
    • Peter Marrin SNL +67 Bcf
    • Genscape +67 Bcf
    • Bentek Flow +66 Bcf
    • Shuya Li Pira +65 Bcf
    • Point Logic +65 Bcf
    • Charlie Fenner Macquarie +64 Bcf
    • Bloomberg Survey +63 Bcf
    • DJ Survey +63 Bcf
    • Andy Wiessman +63 Bcf
  • Reuters Survey +62 Bcf
  • Kidduff Report +62 Bcf
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +61 Bcf
  • Gabe Harris +55 Bcf
  • Robry +54 Bcf
  • Tim Evans Citi +52 Bcf

The Fundamental Edge with Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

Natural Gas Storage Futures weekly EIA storage futures 1031(EIA Swap) 

 

 

 Current Storage Level vs. Last Year & 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 3,710 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 3899
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 3756

EIA NG Storage Range 10 11 17

Further Energy Analysis: Criterion Research

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, Criterion Research

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