EIA Reports -206 Bcf Draw in Natural Gas Inventories

With North America seeing the coldest temperatures ever in some areas and the NE about to get hit by an artic bomb cyclone the EIA releases it’s weekly natural gas storage report with a large draw expected.

With North America seeing the coldest temperatures ever in some areas and the NE about to get hit by an artic bomb cyclone the EIA releases it’s weekly natural gas storage report with a large draw expected.

In the basis market natural gas futures have seen extreme volaltilty especially in the North East. Just a week ago pundits married to the Al Gore model were saying winter was gone. For the past week we have had the lengthiest cold snap in history with polar vortex like freezes.  From here weather models are key on the longevity of the cold. Hub prices have been stable around $3 with record Northeast production giving room to the market..

EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 12/28/17

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release TimeThursday January 4 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual  – 206 Bcf  Prior  182 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  -221 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -210 to -235 Bcf
  • EIA swap: -205 to -210 @ CT 15.13

Last Week’s Report -182 Bcf #TCNG

 EIA Storage Report

 

NG Mexican Exports 9 20 17

NG Canadian Flows 9 20 17

Source: Criterion Research

But then the cold crushed those exports:

Bentek

  • Bentek S/D Model: – 217 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: – 210 Bcf

Bentek’s SD model is pointing to -356 Bcf, and the Daily Storage Report estimate is now -339 Bcf for next week’s huge draw.  They see the largest changes in storage activity, by far, are expected for the Midwest and south-central regions, which are estimated to have withdrawn 41 and 48 Bcf more, compared to the previous week’s EIA.

Analysts Draw Forecasts

      • Bloomberg Survey –  223 Bcf
      • DJ Survey – 220 Bcf
      • Reuters Survey  – 221  Bcf 
      • Bentek Flow  – 210 Bcf
      • Bentek S/D  –  217 Bcf
      • Gabe Harris  – 215 Bcf
      • Genscape  –   Bcf
      • Andy Wiessman  – 226 Bcf
      • Platts – 221 Bcf
      • Norse  –  223 Bcf
      • Shuya Li Pira –  221 Bcf
      • Peter Marrin SNL – 225 Bcf
      • Point Logic – 220  Bcf
      • Kidduff Report  –  224 Bcf
      • Schneider Electric –  235 Bcf
      • Donnie Sharp Huntsville – 216 Bcf
      • TFS – 226 Bcf
      • Macquarie – 220 Bcf
      • Raymond James –  225 Bcf
      • Tim Evans Citi  – 213 Bcf

 

The Fundamental Edge with @BrynneKKelly

 

 

 

flow into Cheniere’s Sabine Pass facility for Dec 2017 averaged 2.97 Bcf/day. exports out averaged 2.68 Bcf/day. That’s a 9.8% difference for possible inventory change, internal use and loss.

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 3,332 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 3394
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 3417 

EIA NG Storage Range 10 11 17

Further Energy Analysis: Criterion Research

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, Criterion Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.