Natural Gas Resting near Multi Year Lows After EIA Storage Draws -191 Bcf

This week Natural gas inventories drew -191 Bcf, higher than expected after last week’s -119 Bcf the EIA reported. Futures rest around 10 cents above multi year lows, with warmer weather threats prices remain pressured.

This week Natural gas inventories drew -191 Bcf ,higher than expected after last week’s -119 Bcf the EIA reported. Futures rest around 10 cents above multi year lows, with warmer weather threats prices remain pressured.

Last 2 week’s draws of -99 Bcf and -119 Bcf have seen natural gas futures continue slip away with warmer weather models.  From here weather models are key on the longevity of the season. Does cold return in time? The focus will continue to Sabine Pass and Mexico in time, but as yesterday’s oil report reminded where is production?

EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 2/8/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release TimeThursday February 15 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual  – 191 Bcf  Prior  -119 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  – 184 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -174 to – 202 Bcf
  • EIA swap: – 183 to -184 @ CT 15.13

Last Week’s Report -119 Bcf #TCNG

 EIA Storage Report

Weather

 

 

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model: – 186 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: – 188 Bcf

Bullish eastern demand and south-central withdrawals winning out for a 37-Bcf stronger sample withdrawal, and a 77-Bcf stronger modeled estimate for the week.;- Bentek

Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey -188
  • DJ Survey -185
  • Reuters Survey -183
  • Platts Survey -183

Analysts

  • Gabe Harris -176
  • Genscape -192
  • Kidduff Report -191
  • Shura Li – Pira -184
  • Peter Marrin – SNL -182
  • Norse -176
  • Point Logic -179
  • Robry825 – 202
  • Schneider Electric -174
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville -175
  • Andy Wiessman -199

 

Banks/Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup -182
  • Macquarie Bank – 185
  • Raymond James – 193
  • TFS -187

The Fundamental Edge with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

It’s never about a single Inventory report.  It’s the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality…. @BrynneKKelly

 

 

RonH Data ‏@ronh999

– Natgasflow into Cheniere’s Sabine Pass facility for Dec 2017 averaged 2.97 Bcf/day. LNG exports out averaged 2.68 Bcf/day. That’s a 9.8% difference for possible inventory change, internal use and loss.

– Natgas feed to Sabine Pass LNG facility for Tue Jan 16 was 3.19 Bcf.

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 2,078 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 2581
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2471 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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