US. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas prices have collapsed from over $10 last year to under $2 this year and have traded sideways between $1.90 to $2.90 for 2023. Much of the price volatility in that tight range coming from gas ETF rolls such as BOIL, KOLD and UNG. Mild weather so far in 2023 has cut historic or actual 30-day close-to-close volatility to 62.2%, its lowest since May 2022.
- Looking back to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine we got on a daily basis, record high historic volatility of 177.7% in February 2022.
- We are a long way off record low of 7.3% in June 1991.
- Historic volatility in 2023 has averaged 89.4%.
- That compares with an annual record high of 92.8% in 2022 and a five-year (2018-2022) average of 57.9%.
If we look around the world gas futures remain volatile. Prices at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe jumped as much as 19% in the session Friday to €32 MWh, a gain of 35.29% on the week after dropping about 13% on June 6 and soaring 25% on June 5.
In 2023 gas prices at TTF and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia have collapsed by more than 55%. TTF fell to a 25-month low near €24 MWh last week, while JKM matched a 24-month low of around $9 on Friday.
Source: TC, KnovaWave
From The TradersCommunity Research Desk