Natural Gas Inventories Draw -119 Bcf With Production in Focus

Natural gas inventories drew -119 Bcf the EIA reported following yesterday’s bearish EIA petroleum report from the EIA with another record for crude production brought natural gas and oil associates output back into focus.

Natural gas inventories drew -119 Bcf the EIA reported following yesterday’s bearish EIA petroleum report from the EIA with another record for crude production brought natural gas and oil associates output back into focus.

Last week’s draw of -99 Bcf saw natural gas futures continual to away with warmer weather models having seen the price fall into the report.  From here weather models are key on the longevity of the season. Does cold return in time? The focus will continue to Sabine Pass and Mexico in time, but as yesterday’s oil report reminded where is production?

EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 2/1/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release TimeThursday February 8 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual  – 119 Bcf  Prior  -99 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  -114 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -104 to – 133 Bcf
  • EIA swap: – 118 to -120 @ CT 15.13

Last Week’s Report -99 Bcf #TCNG

 EIA Storage Report

Weather

Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx

Jan 16 – Latest January demand estimate down to 974 national gas-weighted HDDs….still colder than normal, but on the lower end of the cold 2000s cases.

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model: – 104 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: – 111 Bcf

“While the balancing item from a -111 Bcf withdrawal would be large (-32 Bcf) it is in line with the past two weeks, in which both registered -35 Bcf. A -35 Bcf balancing item implies that our supply and demand models either overestimated supply, underestimated demand, or more likely, did some combination of both by 5 Bcf/d. Week over week, average population-weighted temperatures across the US were slightly down. The week ending Feb. 2 seems likely to play out similar to the previous storage week.” – Bentek

Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey -112
  • DJ Survey -112
  • Reuters Survey -118
  • Platts Survey -109

Analysts

  • Gabe Harris -133
  • Genscape -123
  • Kidduff Report -109
  • Shura Li – Pira -108
  • Peter Marrin – SNL -117
  • Norse -114
  • Point Logic -116
  • Robry825 –
  • Schneider Electric -119
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville -118
  • Andy Wiessman -106

 

Banks/Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup -129
  • Macquarie Bank – 118
  • Raymond James – 110
  • TFS -109

The Fundamental Edge with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

It’s never about a single Inventory report.  It’s the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality…. @BrynneKKelly

 

 

RonH Data ‏@ronh999

– Natgasflow into Cheniere’s Sabine Pass facility for Dec 2017 averaged 2.97 Bcf/day. LNG exports out averaged 2.68 Bcf/day. That’s a 9.8% difference for possible inventory change, internal use and loss.

– Natgas feed to Sabine Pass LNG facility for Tue Jan 16 was 3.19 Bcf.

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 2,197 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 2723
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2622 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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