EIA Reports -288 Bcf Natural Gas Storage With Polar Vortex Ahead

Another large natural gas draw in a week that saw Natural Gas Futures halted the first time since 2014. Heading into expiration volatility is omnipresent with each weather model scrutinized.

Another large natural gas draw in a week that saw Natural Gas Futures halted the first time since 2014. Heading into expiration volatility is omnipresent with each weather model scrutinized. 

Last week’s draw was a record 359 Bcf. With weather voaltility comes basis market natural gas volaltilty especially in the North East. From here weather models are key on the longevity of the cold. Hub prices collapsed to under $2.80 Bcf after the previous week’s smaller expected draw and have risen back to $3.25 Bcf after that rinse.

EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 1/18/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release TimeThursday January 25 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual  –  288 Bcf  Prior  -183 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  -275 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -259 to – 290 Bcf
  • EIA swap: – 275 to -280 @ CT 15.13

Last Week’s Report -183 Bcf #TCNG

 EIA Storage Report

Weather

Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx

Jan 16 – Latest January demand estimate down to 974 national gas-weighted HDDs….still colder than normal, but on the lower end of the cold 2000s cases.

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model: – 267  Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: – 278 Bcf

“A withdrawal of 278 Bcf would far exceed both the five-year average 164 Bcf withdrawal, and last year’s 137 Bcf withdrawal over the course of the same week. It would also imply a balancing item of -25 Bcf for the week, which would be a large jump from the –9 Bcf balance implied last week. A balancing item of -25 Bcf would imply that the supply-demand suite of models underestimated demand and/or overestimated supply by an average 3.6 Bcf/d. Such a shift in the balancing item week on week would not be without precedent, but might suggest some risk to a lower withdrawal than the 278-Bcf estimate.” – Bentek

Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey -268
  • DJ Survey -270
  • Reuters Survey -272
  • Platts Survey -272

Analysts

  • Gabe Harris -266
  • Genscape -283
  • Kidduff Report -277
  • Shura Li – Pira -266
  • Peter Marrin – SNL -272
  • Norse -262
  • Point Logic -272
  • Robry825 -290
  • Schneider Electric -277
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville -282
  • Andy Wiessman – 259

 

Banks/Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup -263
  • Macquarie Bank – 278
  • Raymond James – 267
  • TFS -262

The Fundamental Edge with @BrynneKKelly

It’s never about a single Inventory report.  It’s the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality…. @BrynneKKelly

 

 

RONH @Ronh999

Visit : https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870#!/

– Natgasflow into Cheniere’s Sabine Pass facility for Dec 2017 averaged 2.97 Bcf/day. LNG exports out averaged 2.68 Bcf/day. That’s a 9.8% difference for possible inventory change, internal use and loss.

– Natgas feed to Sabine Pass LNG facility for Tue Jan 16 was 3.19 Bcf.

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 2,583 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 2952
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2946 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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