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FEAR NOT Brave Investors :
Trade Wars, Trump, Contagion and Jobs
Another week of political chaos, trade wars and market risk disconnect. There was more glee over record highs in the S&P and Amazon trading over $2000 then the real emerging markets contagion going on. Earnings wise we are have slowed down to a trickle. Politically we saw drawn out NAFTA negotiations with Mexico and the U.S. agreeing, leaving Canada as bridesmaids failing to catch the bouquet. It also looks like a BREXIT agreement is closer.
Again rationality was not a feature of the week with valuations in the stratosphere and no fear of risk. Real earnings are actually negative year on year with the stock market at lofty levels and the Fed raising rates. I repeat, if you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.
The week ahead begins with the US and Canada off for Labor Day on Monday through to Friday the big data day with the U.S. jobs report due (a labor week so to speak). The first week of the month so we get a string of manufacturing and services PMI reports from around the world. The date helps us guage the economy on the pace of new orders, production, employment, deliveries, inventories, export orders, and prices paid for manufacturers. In the UK we get on Tuesday’s testimony on the last Inflation Report by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney before the Treasury Select Committee. To add to the odd POTUS tweet we have Turkey, Iran, indonesia, Italy and the South American situations.
Earnings wise we have finished the bulk of earnings season and have Broadcom $AVGO, Gamestop $GME and Palo Alto Networks $PANW on the radar this week..
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Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar
Last Week’s Big Stories
- ETP Asks FERC To Approve Rover Laterals For Stranded Appalachian Basin Gas
- U.S. Oil and Gas Rig Count Rises Again
- EIA Reports Build of 70 Bcf in Natural Gas Inventories
- U.S. Draw on Crude Oil Gasoline and Distillates Inventories
- We Are So Happy, U.S. Consumer Confidence Highest since November 2000
- NAFTA Replaced With United States – Mexico Trade Agreement
- Straight of Malacca Oil and LNG Price Risks
- The Strait of Hormuz Risks To Oil Prices
The Week That Was – Last Weeks Recap
Earnings Reports
- Electronic Arts Slumps on Battlefield Delay and Fortnite Blockbuster
- Fortnite Success Clouds Activision Blizzard Video Game Earnings Outlook
- Lululemon Stock Soars To Record High With Earnings and Margins
- CRM Cloud Giant Salesforce Beats Earnings But Lowers Q3 Outlook
Stock Markets
Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*
US Stock Indices Performance
S&P 500
Amazon $AMZN
Fixed Interest
US Yield Curve & SPX
10 Year Treasury Note
Energy and Commodity Markets
US Crude Oil (WTI)
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
Currency Markets
Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)
New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)
Euro (EURUSD)
Japanese Yen (USDJPY)
Argentine Peso (USARS)
Turkish Lire (USDTRY)
Bitcoin
The Week Ahead
Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week
Monday Sep 3
- All Day Holiday Canada – Labour Day
- All Day Holiday United States – Labor Day
- 03:50 EUR French Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
- 03:55 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
- 04:00 EUR EU Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
- 04:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
- 14:30 USD Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks
Tuesday Sep 4
- 00:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (Sep)
- 00:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
- 05:30 AUD RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
- 06:15 Treasury Select Committee Testimony BOE Carney
- 09:45 USD Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
- 10:00 USD Construction Spending (MoM)
- 10:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
- Tentative NZD GlobalDairyTrade Price Index
- 10:30 USD Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks
- 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
- 15:30 USD All Car Sales
- 15:30 USD Total Vehicle Sales
- 21:45 CNY Caixin Services PMI (Aug)
Wednesday Sep 5
- 03:45 EUR Italian Services PMI (Aug)
- 03:50 EUR French Markit Composite PMI (Aug)
- 03:50 EUR French Services PMI (Aug)
- 03:55 EUR German Composite PMI (Aug)
- 03:55 EUR German Services PMI (Aug)
- 04:00 EUR Markit Composite PMI (Aug)
- 04:00 EUR Services PMI (Aug)
- 04:30 GBP Services PMI (Aug)
- 07:00 US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 07:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
- 07:00 US MBA Purchase Index 245.5
- 07:00 US Mortgage Market Index
- 07:00 US Mortgage Refinance Index
- 08:30 USD Trade Balance (Jul)
- 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM)
- 09:45 USD ISM – NY Business Conditions (Aug)
- 10:00 CAD BoC Rate Statement
- 10:00 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision
- 15:00 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
- 16:00 USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
- 16:15 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
- 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
- 18:30 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
- 21:30 AUD Trade Balance (Jul)
- 21:30 JPY BoJ Board Member Kataoka Speaks
Thursday Sep 6
- 07:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts (Aug)
- 08:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Aug)
- 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
- 08:30 USD Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2)
- 08:30 USD Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2)
- 09:45 USD Markit Composite PMI (Aug)
- 09:45 USD Services PMI (Aug)
- 10:00 USD Cap Goods Ship Non Defense Ex Air (MoM)
- 10:00 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM)
- 10:00 USD Factory Orders (MoM) (Jul)
- 10:00 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
- 10:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
- 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage
- 11:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories
- 12:30 CHF SNB Gov Board Member Zurbrugg Speaks
- 14:30 CAD BoC Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks
- Tentative CNY Trade Balance (USD) (Aug)
Friday Sep 7
- All Day Holiday Brazil – Independence Day’
- 01:00 JPY Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Jul)
- 02:00 EUR German Trade Balance (Jul)
- 02:45 EUR French Trade Balance (Jul)
- 04:30 GBP Inflation Expectations
- 05:00 EUR GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.4% 0.4%
- 08:30 USD Employment Report (Aug)
- 08:30 USD Unemployment Rate (Aug)
- 08:30 CAD Employment Report (Aug)
- 08:30 CAD Unemployment Rate (Aug)
- 09:00 USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks
- 10:00 CAD Ivey PMI (Aug) 61.8
- 12:45 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
- 13:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
- 15:30 CFTC Speculative net positions
Saturday Sep 8
- 09:13 CNY Exports (YoY) (Aug)
- 09:13 CNY Imports (YoY) (Aug)
- 09:13 CNY Trade Balance (USD) (Aug)
- 10:45 USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
Notable Earnings Reports This Week
*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available
Monday Sep 3
Before Open
- Nil
After Close
- Nil
Tuesday Sep 4
Before Open
- Conn’s Inc $CONN
- Sears Holdings Corp $SHLD
- USA Technologies Inc $USAT
After Close
- Dave & Buster’s Entertainment Inc $PLAY
- RH Restoration Hardware $RH
- Smartsheet Inc. $SMAR
- Workday $WDAY
Wednesday Sep 5
Before Open
- KNOT OFFSHOR LP $KNOP
After Close
- Ctrip.Com $CTRP
- Descartes Systems $DSG
- DocuSign Inc. $DOCU
Thursday Sep 6
Before Open
- Barnes & Noble Inc $BKS
- Broadcom $AVGO
- Dell Technologies Inc $DVMT
- FuelCell Energy $FCEL
- Navistar International $NAV
After Close
- GameStop Corp $GME Lands End $LE Marve
- ll Technology Group $MRVL
- OKTA INC $OKTA
- Palo Alto Networks $PANW
Friday Sep 7
Before Open
- Evolution Petroleum Corp $EPM
- Tsakos Energy Navigation $TNP
After Close
- Shiloh Industries $SHLO
Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.
Trade Smart!