Market Weekly: Oct 30 Nov 3 2017

Join us in our weekly market thread.

This weeks U.S. market data includes Federal Reserve interest decision, Personal income and spending (September), Employment cost index (3rd quarter), Conference Board consumer confidence (October), Markit and ISM purchasing managers indices (October), Vehicle sales (October), Construction spending (September),  Employment reports (October), and Factory and durable goods orders (September final)

yellen memecomment section below data
Last Weeks recap

Mortgage applications   
w/w purchase -6%
YoY purchase +10%
w/w refinance -3%

M1
-0.4% w/w
+0.6% m/m
+5.6% YoY Real M1

Initial jobless claims
233,000 +11,000

Railroad transport
Carloads +0.2% YoY
loads ex-coal +2.3% YoY
Intermodal units +5.6% YoY
Total loads +3.0% YoY

Oil prices and usage
Oil +$2.53 to $54.19 w/w
Gas prices -$0.01 to $2.48 w/w      
Usage 4 wk avg +1.6% YoY

M2
-0.2% w/w 
+0.3% m/m
+2.8% YoY Real M2

0.300 TED spread unchanged w/w
1.1240 LIBOR unchanged w/w

Shipping transport
Harpex -11 to 494
Baltic Dry -36 to 1546

NYSE ^TRIN
1.22

Week
Dow Jones 0.5%
Nasdaq 1.1%
S&P 500 0.2%
Russell 2000 -0.1%     
YTD
Dow Jones 18.6%
Nasdaq 24.5%
S&P 500 15.3%
Russell 2000 11.1%

Japan’s Nikkei average closed at a 21-year high Friday
Toronto Stock Exchange’s benchmark index closed at record high Friday


With 45% of the constituents of the S&P 500 Index having reported Q3 earnings, the blended estimate for aggregate year-over-year earnings growth is 5.3%. Excluding the energy sector, the earnings growth estimate is 3.0%. The blended aggregate revenue growth projection for the quarter is 4.8%. However, stripping out energy, revenue is expected to rise 3.9%.

Illinois’s issuance of $4.5 billion of new general obligation bonds on Wednesday, was the largest deal in the muni market since 2009


The European Central Bank (ECB) announced that will halve its bond-buying program to €30 billion from €60 billion a month from January through September 2018, or longer, if necessary, until inflation is revived.

S&P: Germany ‘AAA/A-1+’ Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Stable
S&P: UK Ratings Affirmed At ‘AA/A-1+’; Outlook Remains Negative
S&P: Raises Italian Sovereign Credit Rating To BBB From BBB-; Maintains At Stable
Fitch Affirms The Netherlands At ‘AAA’; Outlook Stable
Fitch Affirms United Kingdom At ‘AA’; Outlook Negative


China’s recently unveiled leadership team for the next five years could help Beijing overhaul the country’s economy, according to Moody’s Investors Service. The new slate of leaders and a greater concentration of power for President Xi Jinping will give China’s new leaders more room to tackle longstanding problems like promoting higher-quality growth and reducing inequality, the ratings agency said.


The South African rand fell about 4% this week amid political tensions surrounding the inaugural budget presentation from the country’s new finance minister Malusi Gigaba.


Mexico’s central bank intervened this week to support the Mexican peso, auctioning $4 billion in swaps through December 6, to quell the peso’s recent volatility. The auction represents an increase to the $20 billion swap program announced in February.


{tab title=”economic data for ” color_inactive_handles=”true” outline_handles=”true” outline_content=”true”  open=”true”}

 {tab title=”Monday 23″}

Japan August Coincident Index Final 117.2  (prev 115.7)
Japan Leading Economic Index Final 107.2 (prev 105.2)
Macau Tourist Arrivals YoY 2.4% 
UK CBI Oct industrial trends orders -2 vs 9 exp
Greece Current Account €1.8 billion (€163m YoY)
US Chicago Fed National Activity Sep: 0.17 (est -0.1; prev R -0.37)
Canada August wholesale sales +0.5% vs +0.5% expected 

Earnings Reports: 

At the close
  • Dow -0.20% to 23,280.64. S&P -0.38% to 2,565.52. Nasdaq -0.64% to 6,586.81.
  • Treasurys: 30-year +0.18%. 10-yr +0.11%. 5-yr +0.09%.
  • Commodities: Crude +0.08% to $51.88. Gold +0.29% to $1,284.21.
  • Currencies: Euro -0.26% vs. dollar. Yen -0.17%. Pound -0.09%.

{tab title=”Tuesday 24″}

Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI Oct P: 58.6 (est 57.8; prev 58.1)
Eurozone Markit Services PMI Oct P: 54.9 (est 55.6; prev 55.8)
Eurozone Markit Composite PMI Oct P: 55.9 (est 56.5; prev 56.7)
Germany Markit/BME Services PMI Oct P: 55.2 (est 55.5; prev 55.6)
Germany Markit/BME Composite PMI Oct P: 56.9 (est 57.5; prev 57.7)
France Markit Manufacturing PMI Oct P: 56.7 (est 56.0; prev 56.1
France Markit Services PMI Oct P: 57.4 (est 56.9; prev 57.0)
France Markit Composite PMI Oct P: 57.5 (est 57.0; prev 57.1)

US Markit Manufacturing PMI Oct P: 54.5 (est 53.5; prev 53.1)
US Markit Services PMI Oct P: 55.9 (est 55.2; prev 55.3)
US Markit Composite PMI Oct P: 55.7 (prev 54.8)
Richmond Fed manufacturing index +12 vs +17 expected
Redbook Chain Store Sales: +3.5% Y/Y vs. +3.6% last week
Redbook Month-to-date sales are up 3.4% through October 21
Redbook October sales are expected to increase 3.6%.
API: Crude +0.519MM Gasoline -5.753MM Distillate -4.949MM Cushing -0.055MM
Australia Q3 Consumer Price Index QoQ, 0.6% vs. 0.8% expected
Australia Q3 Consumer Price Index YoY, 1.8% vs. 2% expected
Australia Q3 Consumer Price Index Trimmed Mean Q/Q, 0.4% vs. 0.5% expected

At the close
  • Dow +0.73% to 23,443.08. S&P +0.17% to 2,569.18. Nasdaq +0.18% to 6,598.32.
  • Treasurys: 30-year -0.53%. 10-yr -0.25%. 5-yr -0.15%.
  • Commodities: Crude +1.06% to $52.45. Gold -0.15% to $1,279.00.
  • Currencies: Euro +0.09% vs. dollar. Yen +0.34%. Pound +0.54%.

Earnings Report: 

{tab title=”Wednesday 25″}

German IFO Business Climate Oct: 116.7 (est 115.1; prev R 115.3)
German IFO Business Expectations Oct: 109.1 (est 107.3; prev R 107.5)
German IFO Current Assessment Oct: 124.8 (est 123.5; prev R 123.7)
Italy Industrial Sales MoM Aug: 2.00% (prev R -0.20%)
Italy Industrial Sales YoY Aug: 3.40% (prev 4.00%)
Italy Industrial New Orders MoM Aug: 8.70% (prev R 0.40%)
Italy Industrial New Orders YoY Aug: 12.20% (prev 10.10%)
UK Finance Loans for Housing Sep: 41584 (est 41800; prev R 41762)
UK GDP QoQ Q3 P: 0.40% (est 0.30%; prev 0.30%)
UK GDP YoY Q3 P: 1.50% (est 1.50%; prev 1.50%)
UK Index of Services MoM Aug: 0.20% (est 0.30%; prev R -0.10%)
UK Index of Services 3M/3M Aug: 0.40% (est 0.40%; prev 0.50%)
US MBA mortgage applications
               Composite Index: -4.6% vs +3.6% last week.
               Purchase Index: -6.0% vs +4.0%.
               Refinance Index: -3.0% vs +3.0%
               30 year mortgage rate of 4.18% vs 4.14%
US Durable Goods Orders (M/M) Sep P: 2.20% (est 1.00%; prev 2.00%)
                  Ex-Transport (M/M) Sep P: 0.70% (est 0.50%; prev R 0.70%)
US New Home Sales Change Sep: 667K (exp 554K; R prev 661K)
US New Home Sales (M/M) Sep: 18.9% (exp -1.1%; R prev -3.6%)
BoC Keeps Key Rates Unchanged At 1% As Expected 
US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3: 2.70% (prev 2.70%)
DoE US Crude Oil Inventory Change (WoW) 20-Oct: 856K (est -3000K; prev -5731K)
DoE US Gasoline Inventory Change (WoW) 20-Oct: -5465K (est 1500K; prev 908K)
DoE US Distillate Inventory Change (WoW) 20-Oct: -5246K (est -500K; prev 528K)
DoE US Refinery Utilization (WoW) 20-Oct: 3.30% (est 1.45%; prev -4.70%)
DoE US Crude Oil Inventory Change (WoW) 20-Oct: 856K (est -3000K; prev -5731K)

At the close

  • Dow -0.48% to 23,329.71. S&P -0.47% to 2,557.42. Nasdaq -0.55% to 6,563.44.
  • Treasurys: 30-year -0.28%. 10-yr -0.1%. 5-yr -0.03%.
  • Commodities: Crude -0.51% to $52.20. Gold +0.1% to $1,279.57.
  • Currencies: Euro +0.38% vs. dollar. Yen -0.17%. Pound -0.87%.

Earnings Report: Boeing $BA Raises Earnings Outlook on Higher Defense & Aerospace Revenue
Earnings Report: 

{tab title=”Thursday 26″}

Japan Sept PPI Services 0.9% YoY (est 0.8%, prev 0.8%)
Australian Q3 Export prices -3% QoQ (expected -4.0%) & Import -1.6% QoQ (-1.5%)
UK CBI Retailing Reported Sales Oct: -36 (est 23; prev 42)
ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged
US Initial Jobless Claims (W/W) 21-Oct: 233K (est 235K; prev R 223K)
        Continuing Claims (W/W) 14-Oct: 1893K (est 1890K; prev R 1896K)
US Advanced Goods Trade Balance (USD) Sep: -64.1B (est -64.0B; prev -63.30B)
US Wholesale Inventories (M/M) Sep P: 0.30% (est 0.40%; prev 0.90%)
US Pending Home Sales Index Sep: 106.0 (prev R 106.0)
US Pending Home Sales (M/M) Sep: 0.00% (est 0.30%; prev R -2.80%)
                                NSA (Y/Y) Sep: -5.40% (est 4.20%; prev R -3.30%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow Oct 26: 2.50% (prev 2.70%)
US KC Fed Manufacturing Index Oct: 20 (prev 22)
                         Composite Index Oct: 23 (prev 17)
EIA Natural Gas Inventory: +64 Bcf vs. +65 Bcf consensus, +51 Bcf last week.

At the close
  • Dow +0.3% to 23,399.87. S&P +0.13% to 2,560.18. Nasdaq -0.11% to 6,556.19.
  • Treasurys: 30-year -0.31%. 10-yr -0.16%. 5-yr -0.09%.
  • Commodities: Crude +0.92% to $52.66. Gold -0.84% to $1,268.28.
  • Currencies: Euro -1.4% vs. dollar. Yen +0.2%. Pound +0.85%.

Earnings Reports: 
Refiner Valero $VLO Beats Earnings, Overcomes Hurricane Harvey
ConocoPhillips $COP Earnings Beat But Lowers Capex
Boeing $BA Raises Earnings Outlook on Higher Defense & Aerospace Revenue

{tab title=”Friday 27″}

Japan Sept CPI 0.7% YoY (est 0.7%, prev 0.7%)
Japan Sept CPI ex-food, energy 0.2pct y/y (est 0.2pct, prev 0.2pct)
China Industrial profits for September: 22.8% YoY (prior +24%)
Australia Q3 PPI 0.2% QoQ (prev 0.5%)
Australia Q3 PPI 1.6% YoY (prev 1.7%)
Germany Import Price Index (MoM) Sep: 0.90% (est 0.50%; prev 0.00%)
Germany Import Price Index (YoY) Sep: 3.00% (est 2.60%; prev 2.10%)
France Consumer Confidence Oct: 100 (est 101; prev 101)
Ireland Retail Sales (MoM) Sep: -2.40% (prev R -4.70%)
Ireland Retail Sales (YoY) Sep: 1.20% (prev R 4.60%)
US GDP Annualized (Q/Q) Q3 P: 3.00% (est 2.60%; prev 3.10%)
US GDP Price Index (Q/Q) Q3 P: 2.20% (est 1.70%; prev 1.00%)
US NY Fed GDP Nowcast Q3: 1.6% (prev 1.5%)
US NY Fed GDP Nowcast Q4: 3.1% (prev 2.6%)
University of Michigan Oct-Final Sentiment, 100.7 vs. Preliminary 101.1
US Baker Hughes Rig Count : 909 (prev 913)  Gas  172 (prev 177) Oil  737 (prev 736)

At the close
  • Dow +0.14% to 23,434.84. S&P +0.81% to 2,581.22. Nasdaq +2.2% to 6,701.56.
  • Treasurys: 30-year +0.52%. 10-yr +0.3%. 5-yr +0.18%.
  • Commodities: Crude +2.53% to $53.97. Gold +0.36% to $1,274.22.
  • Currencies: Euro -0.45% vs. dollar. Yen -0.26%. Pound +0.24%.

Earnings Reports: 
Cabot Oil & Gas $COG slightly missing Q3 earnings expectations
ExxonMobil $XOM earnings improve by 50%, beating estimates
Chevron $CVX Q3 Earnings Miss Expectations
Imperial Oil $IMO misses by C$0.09, misses on revenue

 

{/tabs}

Baltic Dry Index
bdi oct 29 2017

P/Es & Yields on Major U.S. Indexes
pe yields oct 29 2017

 


Earnings report this week – here is a ticker list of notables

MegaCaps: AAPL FB BABA RDS-A PFE

LargeCaps: DWDP MA BP SNY KHC QCOM SBUX UBS LYG ENB MDLZ DUK AGN AMT AET AIG MET BBVA EOG HMC TSLA EPD ADP SO D CI OXY PRU BDX SNE ATVI CTSH BCE EL CNQ ICE ECL EXC EA ETN WPZ EQIX DB BT ALL TRI FIS TEL ZTS FMS CMI LBTYA LILA PCG SRE MCO HCA FISV APC ED DLPH ROP CHT YUM EIX PPL PEG AVB KYO PXD PH ZBH CTRP INCY ADM WMB CBS NMR IX RSG WLTW RACE K OKE ES NWL VEDL SYMC CXO CHKP SKM BXP DVN GGP SBAC TAP ABC FDC MTD ESS LNC CNHI CLX HRS L VMC AME TS MMP AWK BIP APA WRK FLT BLL AEE MSI IDXX HST XRAY TEVA HNP VRSK ANET VNO CNA MLM CBG NLY NBL SEP CNP HCP CX MRO XYL ANSS CVE CHD ARE IT IPGP GRMN CHRW ZNH TFX MSCI CDW AMG CGNX REG CC ASX SHOP UDR MELI LNT

MidCaps: PNW EXR BG RE SPR LDOS WU QRVO CDK AFG LUK OTEX INGR FRT Y TRGP VST CF LYV CZR NI AER WGP HBI WCG XPO MAC TKC NRG PKI STE ADNT WES OA EXEL WR H BHF VOYA CG MOS RL ARW OGE BPL WPC AES DISCA GXP ARCC GIL UAA OSK HLF FCE-A BIO TX ALSN KAR ENBL HFC WTR OLED DATA APO OHI BEP PK COMM BPY SERV RDY NFX NNN FLR EEP TDY OLN EXAS RICE FLS ULTI MIC AMH AR CACC VVC AGCO RNR W RGLD ENLK BRX NBIX AIZ CONE CPN AM DCT FCNCA HRC WEX ARRS MDU EVHC HPP MSG BFAM SABR SPIL NICE NFG BRKR JUNO SHLX X PAYC AN LFUS GPT MPW EPAM TECH IDA CAVM STOR GWR MASI FICO TFSL MSM RLGY DNB AGO WPX MUR LOPE TDC CNK THG TEX OMF ITT UNVR MD ALE RIG OGS HGV SGMS ARES HE HR SRC THS TEGP DXCM RYN LITE BKU IDTI AEIS CNX MOH CBT LSI KEX YELP SHO CRUS BPOP MTZ INXN CLVS TXRH STMP FND TPX SBRA BWP SUM RP VAC CACI SF JCOM FUN BKH CIM KMT CHK BDC PODD AVA CMPR NUS MFA TEP AMCX WFT GNRC SBGI COTV ESRT DM AGIO GEO CHDN MOG-A NYT CLH PAH ROLL TSE TPL KMPR LCII MCY HUBS DOC ITRI UNIT PBF ZEN FEYE NGVT IBA TCO SANM DDR ACIW NWE RPAI AWI ENLC PDM IIVI CRTO TMHC WMGI PCTY MUSA BPMC UE RXN BID APAM LPI ROG KBR ARLP TREX AMKR SHOO PBI EDR GRPN SEM MTX STAG PBH GPOR SFM MDRX FDP TNET SAGE AKR INOV CCOI EE FNGN CVI SSD WTS TIVO TR MAIN CMP ADSW KW CBPO ATGE ALEX BGS IRWD FIBK DO VIAV ORBK GCP MMYT HEP REXR LQ CAKE AMN CIGI INSM RMP AXL HYH CPS NSP ARRY MGLN

 

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