Market Weekly: Nov 6 Nov 10 2017

Join us in our weekly market thread.

This weeks U.S. market data includes JOLTS job openings survey (September), Wholesale inventories and sales (September) and University of Michigan consumer sentiment (November)

bitcoin hotcomment section below data
Last Weeks recap

Mortgage applications   
w/w purchase -1%
YoY purchase +10%
w/w refinance -5%

M1
+0.9% w/w
+1.8% m/m
+6.6% YoY Real M1

Initial jobless claims
229,000 -4,000

Railroad transport
Carloads -3.2% YoY
loads ex-coal +0.2% YoY
Intermodal units +3.7% YoY
Total loads +0.2% YoY

Oil prices and usage
Oil +$1.51 to $55.70 w/w
Gas prices +$0.01 to $2.48 w/w      
Usage 4 wk avg +2.8% YoY

M2
unchanged w/w 
+0.3% m/m
+2.8% YoY Real M2

0.250 TED spread -0.050 w/w
1.1240 LIBOR unchanged w/w

Shipping transport
Harpex -20 to 474
Baltic Dry -50 to 1496

NYSE ^TRIN
0.96

Week
Dow Jones 0.4%
Nasdaq 0.9%
S&P 500 0.3%
Russell 2000 -0.9%     
YTD
Dow Jones 19%
Nasdaq 25.7%
S&P 500 15.6%
Russell 2000 10.2%

Bank of Japan kept its policy on hold, so did the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England raised rates. US President Trump appointed Jerome Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chair, to replace Janet Yellen when her term expires in the new year.


Japanese stock market benchmarks advanced for their eighth consecutive week of gains. The STOXX Europe 600 Index almost touching a 10-year high. German DAX 30 also hit an all-time high. Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite index crossed the 16,000 level for the first time. The S&P 500 Index extended its string of weekly gains to eight.


{tab title=”economic data for” color_inactive_handles=”true” outline_handles=”true” outline_content=”true” “open=”true”}

{tab title=”Monday 30″}

Germany Retail Sales (MoM) Sep: 0.5% (exp 0.5%; prev -0.2%)
Germany Retail Sales (YoY) Sep: 4.1% (exp 3.0%; prev 2.8%)
Eurozone Consumer Confidence Oct F: -1 (est -1; prev -1) 
Eurozone Economic Confidence Oct: 114 (est 113.4; prev R 113.1)
Eurozone Services Confidence Oct: 16.2 (est 15; prev R 15.4)
Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Oct: 1.44 (est 1.4; prev 1.34) 
Eurozone Industrial Confidence Oct: 7.9 (est 7.1; prev R 6.7)
Germany CPI (MoM) Oct P: 0.00% (est 0.10%; prev 0.10%)
Germany CPI (YoY) Oct P: 1.60% (est 1.70%; prev 1.80%) 
Germany CPI EU Harmonized (MoM) Oct P: -0.10% (est 0.10%; prev 0.00%)
Germany CPI EU Harmonized (YoY) Oct P: 1.50% (est 1.70%; prev 1.80%) 
US Personal Income (MoM) Sep: 0.40% (est 0.40%; prev 0.20%) 
US Personal Spending (MoM) Sep: 1.00% (est 0.80%; prev 0.10%)
US Real Personal Spending (MoM) Sep: 0.60% (est 0.50%; prev -0.10%)
US PCE Deflator (MoM) Sep: 0.40% (est 0.40%; prev 0.20%) 
US PCE Deflator (YoY) Sep: 1.60% (est 1.60%; prev 1.40%)
US PCE Core (MoM) Sep: 0.10% (est 0.10%; prev 0.10%) 
US PCE Core (YoY) Sep: 1.30% (est 1.30%; prev 1.30%)
US Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE Price Index Sep: 1.80% (prev 1.60%) 

At the close
  • Dow -0.37% to 23,348.18. S&P -0.33% to 2,572.28. Nasdaq -0.03% to 6,698.62.
  • Treasurys: 30-year +0.57%. 10-yr +0.23%. 5-yr +0.15%.
  • Commodities: Crude +0.45% to $54.14. Gold +0.38% to $1,276.67.
  • Currencies: Euro +0.43% vs. dollar. Yen -0.49%. Pound -0.66%.

Earnings Reports:

{tab title=”Tuesday 31″}

BoJ Interest Rate Held at -0.1%
Japan BoJ Core CPI (YoY): 0.5%, Expected: 0.5%, Previous: 0.6%
Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index 29-Oct: 113.4 (prev 113.3)
New Zealand Building Permits (MoM) Sep: -2.3% (prev 10.2%)
South Korean Cyclical Leading Index Change Sep: -0.2 (R prev 0.1)
South Korea Industrial Production SA (MoM) Sep: 0.1% (exp 2.4%; R prev 0.1%) 
South Korea Industrial Prod (YoY) Sep: 8.4% (exp 4.8%; R prev 2.3%)
Spain Current Account Balance (EUR) Aug: 2.61B (prev 3.0B)
Italy Unemployment Rate Sep P: 11.10% 
Italy CPI EU Harmonized (YoY) Oct P: 1.10% (est 1.30%; prev 1.30%) 
Italy CPI EU Harmonized (MoM) Oct P: 0.00% (est 0.20%; prev 1.80%)
Italy CPI NIC Incl. Tobacco (YoY) Oct P: 1.00% (est 1.30%; prev 1.10%) 
Italy CPI NIC Incl. Tobacco (MoM) Oct P: -0.20% (est 0.10%; prev -0.30%)
France GDP (QoQ) Q3 P: 0.5% (exp 0.5%; R prev 0.6%) 
France GDP (YoY) Q3 P: 2.2% (exp 2.1%; prev 1.8%)
France Consumer Spending (MoM) Sep: 0.90% (est 0.60%; prev R -0.20%)
France Consumer Spending (YoY) Sep: 2.80% (est 1.90%; prev R 1.30%)
France PPI (YoY) Sep: 2.10% (prev R 1.90%)
France PPI (M/M) Sep: 0.50% (prev 0.40%)
France CPI EU Harmonized (YoY) Oct P: 1.20% (est 1.20%; prev 1.10%)
France CPI EU Harmonized (MoM) Oct P: 0.10% (est 0.10%; prev -0.20%)
France CPI (YoY) Oct P: 1.10% (est 1.00%; prev 1.00%)
France CPI (MoM) Oct P: 0.10% (est 0.10%; prev -0.20%)
Eurozone GDP SA (QoQ) Q3 P: 0.60% (est 0.50%; prev R 0.70%) 
Eurozone GDP SA (YoY) Q3 P: 2.50% (est 2.40%; prev 2.30%)
Eurozone CPI Estimate (YoY) Oct: 1.40% (est 1.50%; prev 1.50%) 
Eurozone CPI Core (YoY) Oct P: 0.90% (est 1.10%; prev 1.10%)
Eurozone Unemployment Rate Sep: 8.90% (est 9.00%; prev R 9.00%)
Canada GDP (MoM) Aug: -0.10% (est 0.10%; prev 0%) 
Canada GDP (YoY) Aug: 3.50% (est 3.60%; prev R 3.90%)
Canada Industrial Product Price (MoM) Sep: -0.30% (est 0.20%; prev R 0.40%)
Canada Raw Materials Price Index (MoM) Sep: -0.10% (est 0.30%; prev R 0.90%)
US Employment Cost Index (QoQ) Q3: 0.70% (est 0.70%; prev 0.50%)
US Case-Shiller 20-city price index +5.9% vs +6.0% y/y expected
US Chicago PMI Oct: 66.2 (est 60; prev 65.2)
US Conference Board October Consumer Confidence, 125.9 vs. 120 expected

At the close
  • Dow +0.12% to 23,376.12. S&P +0.09% to 2,575.22. Nasdaq +0.43% to 6,727.51.
  • Treasurys: 30-year +0.09%. 10-yr -0.1%. 5-yr -0.07%.
  • Commodities: Crude +0.48% to $54.41. Gold -0.45% to $1,271.91.
  • Currencies: Euro 0.% vs. dollar. Yen +0.42%. Pound -0.55%.
 

Earnigns Reports:
British Oil Giant BP Beats Earnings Adds to Share Buybacks 
Sony Shares Soar Over 12% on PlayStation Gaming Profits
Frack Sand Producer Hi-Crush Partners $HCLP Miss Earnings as Drilling Slows
Devon Energy $DVN Profit Falls Reflecting Divestures
Concho Resources $CXO Earnings Beat on Higher Shale Production

{tab title=”Wednesday 1″}

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI Oct: 51.0 (exp 51.0; prev 51.0)
Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Oct F: 52.8 (prev 52.5)
Japan Vehicle Sales (Y/Y) Oct: -4.7% (prev 0.4%)
South Korea Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Oct: 50.2 (prev 50.6)
South Korea Trade Balance (USD) Oct: 7327M (exp 8653M; R prev 13459M)
South Korea Exports (YoY) Oct: 7.1% (exp 15.67%; prev 35.0%) 
                     Imports (YoY) Oct: 7.4% (exp 14.8%; R prev 22.6%)
Australia CBA Australia PMI Mfg Oct: 55.5 (prev 53.8)
Australia AiG Perf of Mfg Index Oct: 51.1 (prev 54.2)
New Zealand Unemployment Rate Q3: 4.6% (exp 4.7%; prev 4.8%)
Germany Brandenburg CPI (MoM) Oct: -0.10% (prev 0.20%) 
Germany Brandenburg CPI (YoY) Oct: 1.30% (prev 1.60%)
UK Markit Manufacturing PMI Oct: 56.3 (est 55.9; prev R 56.0)
Greece Markit Manufacturing PMI Oct: 52.1 (prev 52.8)
Canada MLI Leading Indicator (MoM) Sep: 0.10% (prev 0.20%)
MBA Mortgage Applications
        Composite Index: -2.6% vs. -4.6% last week.
        Purchase Index: -1.0% vs. -6.0%.
        Refinance Index: -5.0% vs. -3.0%
        30 year mortgage rate  of 4.22% vs. 4.18%.
US ADP Employment Change Oct: 235K (est 196K; prev 135K)
US PMI Manufacturing Index 54.6 vs. 54.5 consensus, 53.1 prior.
US ISM Manufacturing Index: 58.7 vs. 59.5 consensus and 60.8 prior.
       Employment 59.8 vs. 60.3 prior, Prices 68.5 vs. 71.5 
       New Orders 63.4 vs. 64.6, Production 61.0 vs. 62.2
US September Construction Spending: +0.3% M/M vs. +0.0% expected, +0.1% (revised) prior.
US Construction spending +2.0% Y/Y vs. +2.5% prior.
US DoE Crude Oil Inventory Change (W/W) 27-Oct: -2435K (est -1300K; prev 856K)
US DoE Refinery Utilization (W/W) 27-Oct: 0.30% (est 0.70%; prev 3.30%)
US DoE Gasoline Inventory Change (W/W) 27-Oct: -4020K (est -1550K; prev -5465K)
US DoE Cushing OK Crude Inventory Change (W/W) 27-Oct: 90K (prev -237K)
US DoE Distillate Inventory Change (W/W) 27-Oct: -320K (est -2500K; prev -5246K)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow Nov 1: 4.50% (prev 2.90%)
Fed Funds Target Rate Unchanged At 1%-1.25%

At the close

  • Dow +0.25% to 23,435.30. S&P +0.16% to 2,579.52. Nasdaq -0.17% to 6,716.52.
  • Treasurys: 30-year +0.37%. 10-yr +0.06%. 5-yr flat.
  • Commodities: Crude -0.2% to $54.27. Gold +0.46% to $1,276.32.
  • Currencies: Euro -0.2% vs. dollar. Yen +0.42%. Pound +0.27%.
 
 
 
 
{tab title=”Thursday 2″}
 
Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI Oct F: 58.5 (est 58.6; prev 58.6) 
France Markit Manufacturing PMI Oct F: 56.1 (est 56.7; prev 56.7) 
Italy Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI Oct: 57.8 (est 56.5; prev 56.3) 
Spain Markit Manufacturing PMI Oct: 55.8 (est 54.8; prev 54.3)
Germany Markit/BME Manufacturing PMI Oct F: 60.6 (est 60.5; prev 60.5) 
Germany Unemployment Change Oct: -11K (est -10K; prev -22K)
Germany Unemployment Claims Rate SA Oct: 5.60% (est 5.60%; prev 5.60%)
Germany Non-Adj. Jobless Ranks (YoY): -151K (prev 159K)
BOE Raises Rate 0.25% to 0.5%
US Initial Jobless Claims (WoW) 28-Oct: 229K (est 235K; prev R 234K)
US Continuing Claims (WoW) 21-Oct: 1884K (est 1894K; prev R 1899K)
US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) Q3 P: 3.00% (est 2.60%; prev 1.50%) 
US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) Q3 P: 0.50% (est 0.40%; prev R 0.30%)
US EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (BCF) 27-Oct: 65 (est 63; prev 64)
 
At the close
  • Dow +0.34% to 23,514.49. S&P +0.02% to 2,579.22. Nasdaq -0.02% to 6,714.96.
  • Treasurys: 30-year +0.43%. 10-yr +0.16%. 5-yr +0.07%.
  • Commodities: Crude +0.85% to $54.76. Gold -0.02% to $1,277.06.
  • Currencies: Euro +0.37% vs. dollar. Yen -0.1%. Pound +1.39%

{tab title=”Friday 3″}

Australia AiG Perf of Services Index Oct: 51.4 (prev 52.1)
Australia Retail Sales (MoM) Sep: 0.0% (exp 0.4%; prev -0.6%)
Australia Retail Sales Ex-Inflation (QoQ) Q3: 0.1% (exp 0.0%; prev 1.5%)
China Caixin Services PMI Oct: 51.2 (prev 50.6) 
China Caixin Composite PMI Oct: 51.0 (prev 51.4)
Canada Sept trade balance CAD -3.18bln vs -3.0bln exp
Canada net change in employment 35.3K vs. 15.0K estimate

US Trade Balance (USD) Sep: -43.5B (est -43.2B; prev R -42.8B)
US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Oct: 261K (est 312K; prev R 18K)
                     Two-Month Payroll Net Revision Oct: 90K (prev -38K)
US Change in Private Payrolls Oct: 252K (est 301K; prev R 15K) 
US Unemployment Rate Oct: 4.10% (est 4.20%; prev 4.20%)
US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) Oct: 0.00% (est 0.20%; prev 0.50%) 
US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) Oct: 2.40% (est 2.70%; prev R 2.80%)
US Average Weekly Hours All Employees Oct: 34.4 (est 34.4; prev 34.4)
US Markit Services PMI Oct F: 55.3 (est 55.9; prev 55.9) 
US Markit Composite PMI Oct F: 55.2 (prev 55.7)
US ISM Non-Manf. Composite Oct: 60.1 (est 58.5; prev 59.8)
US Factory Orders (MoM) Sep: 1.40% (est 1.20%; prev 1.20%) 
                Ex-Trans (MoM) Sep: 0.70% (prev R 0.60%)
US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) Sep F: 2.00% (est 2.00%; prev 2.20%) 
                                Ex-Transportation (MoM) Sep F: 0.70% (prev 0.70%)
US Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex-Air (MoM) Sep F: 1.70% (prev 1.30%) 
US Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex-Air (MoM) Sep F: 0.90% (prev 0.70%)
US NY Fed GDP Nowcast Q4: 3.16% (prev 3.10%)
US Baker Hughes Rig Count 03-Nov: 898 (prev 909) 
                     Gas: 169 (prev 172) Oil: 729 (prev 737)

At the close
  • Dow +0.09% to 23,538.18. S&P +0.31% to 2,587.62. Nasdaq +0.74% to 6,764.21.
  • Treasurys: 30-year +0.24%. 10-yr +0.1%. 5-yr +0.02%.
  • Commodities: Crude +2.05% to $55.66. Gold -0.56% to $1,270.96.
  • Currencies: Euro -0.43% vs. dollar. Yen +0.03%. Pound -0.12%

Earnings Reports:
Apple $AAPL Record Quarter, Revenue Beat 

{/tabs}

Baltic Dry Index
bdi nov 4 2017

P/Es & Yields on Major U.S. Indexes
pe yields nov 4 2017

 


Earnings report this week – here is a ticker list of notables

MegaCaps: BRK-A RDS-B TM

LargeCaps: HSBC DIS BTI NVDA PCLN AZN ITUB CVS ING PBR PBR-A FOXA MAR REGN CS MFC EMR TRP BAM JCI HUM SCCO MNST IBN MT TLK SYY RYAAY RCL DXC ROK HCN SLF FWONA LSXMA DISH KEP EC TU MCHP SWKS MGA CAH ETP CCE MYL ETE MGM LBTYK ANDV SNAP DHI GPN LVNTA ALB CLR AGU QVCA PAA GIB SQ LBRDK HSIC CBOE ENIA AEG NCLH UGP FMC CEA ECA IFF PRGO BAK XEC DVA TTWO COH HOLX WLK FANG HII EXPD BR IAC

MidCaps: IEP ATH DOX ATO ON WPM FBR TSU JKHY GOLD JAZZ ZAYO SEE PE UGI CPL BMA NWSA SMI PPC VER QGEN ZG UHAL GDDY MGP KSS KORS KNX INVH JHG ATHM MIDD MTCH LAMR CLNS VEON IONS JWN COHR DEI TRQ USFD MSCC GGAL JLL BWXT ZBRA M INCR SBS TSRO G SRCL PAGP BAH LGF-A CRL ANGI STWD GGB TRIP HHC RSPP TWO BUFF CPA CTLT CFX EGN CAA UBNT CSRA CCU SEB EPR CDEV Z KGC SATS VVV ANDX DCP CAE SE WWD PBYI HPT SFR TARO SNDR AL VSM PEGA PINC ESGR VWR SNH ACAD BFR ASH FGEN MMS APLE APU AKRX PRI VRX LPX ESNT CHH CABO SWX STAY FLO RLJ JELD PGRE ILG JOBS BGNE ICUI VSAT TCP WEN HAIN RBC OPK LNCE CWH TRCO BSM EPC BITA CAR ZNGA RHP ANAT PDCE RNG PEN TWOU AVXS STN TRTN OUT CNDT PTLA TEO ORA NHI WIX KOS TROX RBA JAG PRA SUN WBT TDS LGND MNK GHC ENS KRO NXST PFGC USM TSEM GMED CXW NS ESL DAR WTW MTDR GDOT NEWR RRR VGR TTEK TWLO XOG IBOC BCPC AEL LILAK PLNT ENR IAG TTD VIRT TGNA SITE NVRO WAGE HAE SLCA LAUR PAAS JJSF LXP AFSI NNI OAS CVG CPE HALO BRKS XHR ORIG ENV ERF HZNP PRTA LC FOLD MGEE BLD DK SKT DRH CSOD ABCO EBIX ARCO NGHC ALRM COKE AJRD INGN SUPN COT ALX SEMG CLI HTZ

 

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