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FEAR NOT Brave Investors :
OPEC, Trade Wars, Inflation, and Wages
The mid terms have come and gone, the Democrats won the house, the Republicans got more control of the senate, rhetoric and partisanship went up a notch, so much for the wish of rationality! Oil continued it’s dump, now down over $17 or 20% in just 5 weeks since the Iran conflagulation with COT showing longs are at their lowest since Jan 2016. The S&P 500 index rallied after the mid terms but Italy’s debt and Brexit continued to throw currency markets. Iran, OPEC’s No. 3 producer got hit by U.S. sanctions on Sunday Nov. 4 but most of their clients got waivers for 6 months, hence oil’s fall after the POTUS tough talk on Iran turned out not to be the case for now, watch this space with OPEC not happy with WTI down under $60 and Brent under $70,. Those emerging markets continue to overhang, particularly the Fragile 5 and Argentina.
Despite the correction, politics and volatility rationality was not a feature of the week with valuations still in the stratosphere and no fear of risk. Real earnings are actually negative year on year with the stock market at lofty levels and the Fed raising rates. I repeat, if you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.
The week ahead will focus on Italy, who has until November 13 to resubmit its tax and spending proposals to Brussels who warned Rome that it will breach the EU’s 3 per cent deficit limit in 2020 and come close to doing so next year. After a higher than expected PPI in both Germany and the U.S., inflation and wage growth figures take centre stage with CPI reports. Following last week’s FOMC US Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell and Dallas Fed president Robert Kaplan will discuss national and global economic issues in Texas on Wednesday.
We will get updates on the health of the US consumer with retail sales due. Over in China we have Alibaba’s Singles Day shopping event on Sunday. Last year $BABA sold $25.4 billion in the single-day event last year with over 777 million parcels shipped.
Earnings wise we have been seeing the affect of Tariffs and the Chinese slowdown impact on demand and increasing costs. Higher raw materials costs, wages and interest rates are hanging over margin and earnings forecasts. Earnings season is winding down with just 13 companies on the S&P 500 expected to report results. Walmart is due to report, further giving us a guage on American consumers. Other earnings to watch include Applied Materials, Autohome, Canada Goose, Cisco Systems, Home Depot, Macy’s, Nordstrom, Nvidia, Tilray, and Viacom.
Earnings last week saw a mixed bag with modest surprises but some big price falls among Activision Blizzard, Dropbox, Square, Take-Two Interactive, The Trade Desk. Energy earnings included Devon Energy; Diamond Offshore Drilling; Diamondback Energy; Golar LNG; PDC Energy, Laredo Petroleum, Marathon Oil; and Sempra
-comment section below data-
Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar
Last Week’s Big Stories
- U.S. Oil Rigs Rise 12 to Another New Cycle High With Record Production
- Producer Price Inflation Boiling Along With Trade Pressures
- Federal Reserve Leaves Rates Unchanged As Expected
- EIA Reports +65 Bcf Build in Natural Gas Inventories
- U.S. Crude and Gasoline Storage Builds With Another Record High in Oil Production
The Week That Was – Last Weeks Recap
Earnings Reports
- Activision Blizzard Stock Sharply Lower After Holiday Season Outlook
- Dropbox Cloud and File Sharing Earnings Beat With Strong ARPU
- LNG Gains Boosts Cheniere Energy Earnings and Outlook
- The Trade Desk Continues To Grow at Brisk Pace, Raises Guidance
- Square $SQ Earnings Beat With EverBrite But Guides Lower
- Marathon Oil Earnings Beat Raises Production Guidance
- Take Two Interactive Crushes Earnings and Guides Higher on Grand Theft Auto
- Sempra Energy Earnings Beat, Boosts LNG Exports
- Delaware Basin and Eagle Ford Drive Devon Energy Earnings Beat
- Diamondback Energy Beats Earnings and Production Outlook
- PDC Energy Earnings Miss and Lowers Production Outlook
- Laredo Petroleum Earnings Miss, Raises Production Outlook
- Golar LNG Earnings Beat With FLNG Fleet Utilization Increase
- Diamond Offshore Losses Continue as Drilling Revenue Plunges
Stock Markets
Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*
US Stock Indices Performance
S&P 500
Amazon $AMZN
Fixed Interest
US Yield Curve & SPX
10 Year Treasury Note
Energy and Commodity Markets
US Crude Oil (WTI)
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
Currency Markets
Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)
New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)
Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)
Euro (EURUSD)
EuroPound (EURGBP)
Japanese Yen (USDJPY)
Argentine Peso (USARS)
Turkish Lire (USDTRY)
Bitcoin
The Week Ahead
Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week
Mon Nov 12
- 01:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY)
- 04:00 EUR Italian Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)
- Tentative USD Loan Officer Survey
- 19:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence (Oct)
Tues Nov 13
- 02:00 EUR German CPI (MoM) (Oct)
- 02:45 EUR French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q3)
- Tentative CNY Outstanding Loan Growth (YoY)
- 04:30 GBP Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM)
- 04:30 GBP Unemployment Rate (Sep)
- 05:00 EUR German ZEW Current Conditions (Nov)
- 05:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov)
- Tentative EUR Eurogroup Meetings
- 05:00 EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment –
- 06:00 USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (Oct)
- 06:20 USD OPEC Monthly Report
- 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
- 14:00 USD Federal Budget Balance (Oct)
- 18:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Nov)
- 18:50 JPY GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
- 19:30 AUD Wage Price Index (QoQ)
- 21:00 CNY Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Oct)
- 21:00 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct)
- 23:30 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)
Wed Nov 14
- 02:00 EUR EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
- Tentative CNY FDI 2.90%
- 02:45 EUR French CPI (MoM) (Oct)
- 04:00 USD IEA Monthly Report
- 04:30 GBP CPI (MoM) (Oct)
- 04:30 GBP House Price Index (YoY)
- 04:30 GBP PPI Input (MoM) (Oct)
- 05:00 EUR Employment Change (QoQ) (Q3)
- Tentative EUR EU Finance Ministers Meeting
- 05:00 EUR GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
- 05:00 EUR Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)
- 07:00 US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 07:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
- 07:00 US MBA Purchase Index
- 07:00 US Mortgage Market Index
- 07:00 US Mortgage Refinance Index
- 08:30 USD CPI (MoM) (Oct)
- 08:30 USD Real Earnings (MoM) (Oct)
- 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM)
- 09:00 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
- 11:00 USD Cleveland CPI (MoM) (Oct)
- 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
- 18:05 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
- 18:30 AUD Employment Report (Oct)
- 20:30 CNY House Prices (YoY) (Oct)
Thur Nov 15
- All Day Holiday Brazil – Proclemation of The Republic
- 02:45 EUR French GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
- 04:30 GBP Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
- 05:00 EUR Trade Balance (Sep)
- 08:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
- 08:30 USD Export Price Index (MoM) (Oct)
- 08:30 USD Import Price Index (MoM) (Oct)
- 08:30 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Nov)
- 08:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov)
- 08:30 CAD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 28.8K
- 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
- 10:00 USD Business Inventories
- 10:00 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
- 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
- 11:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories
- 15:00 USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
- 16:30 NZD Business NZ PMI (Oct)
- 19:30 SGD Trade Balance
Fri Nov 16
- 04:00 EUR Italian Industrial New Orders (MoM) (Sep)
- Tentative GBP Inflation Report Hearings
- 05:00 EUR CPI (MoM) (Oct)
- 06:00 EUR Italian CPI (MoM) (Oct)
- 08:30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases (Sep)
- 08:30 CAD Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Sep)
- 09:15 USD Capacity Utilization Rate (Oct)
- 09:15 USD Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct)
- 11:00 USD KC Fed Composite Index (Nov)
- 11:00 USD KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov)
- 11:30 USD Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks
- 13:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
- 15:30 CFTC Speculative net positions
Notable Earnings Reports This Week
*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available
Monday Nov 12
Before Open
- AECOM ACM AGT FOOD&INGRED AGT AUTOHOME INC ATHM GEODRILL LTD GEO GILAT SATELLITE GILT HEROUX-DEVTEK HRX INMED PHARMACT IN LUBY’S INC LUB ONCOLYTICS BIO ONCY ONCOLYTICS -TS ONC QUTOUTIAO INC QTT STEREOTAXIS INC STXS UROGEN PHARMA URGN
After Close
- AMERIGAS PARTNR APU ASTERIAS BIOTHR AST ATENTO SA ATTO AVIAT NETWORKS AVNW AXA EQUIT HLDGS EQH BSQUARE CORP BSQR CENT PUERTO-ADR CEPU CYCLACEL PHARMA CYCC CYPRESS EGY PTR CELP DATA COMM MGMT DCM ECN CAPITAL CP ECN ENSYNC INC ESNC EVENTBRITE INC EB EVERQUOTE INC EVER FOCUS FINL PTNR FOCS FUEL TECH INC FTEK H&R REIT HR HUYA INC-ADR HUYA INTRUSION INC INTZ KORNIT DIGITAL KRNT MEDALLION FINL MFIN MINTO APARTMENT MI MOUNTAIN PRV-TS MPV MTN PROV DMND MPVD NAVIGATOR HLDGS NVGS ONE GROUP HOSP STKS PHOENIX NEW MED FENG REDLINE COMMUN RDL SIERRA METALS SMT SIERRA METALS SMTS SIGMA LABS INC SGLB TIDEWATER INC TDW UGI CORP UGI UNUM THERAPTICS UMRX UROVANT SCIENCS UROV VERITONE INC VERI VILLAGE FARMS VFF VIVOPOWER INTL VVPR YIRENDAI LTD YRD YY INC-ADR YY
Tuesday Nov 13
Before Open
- ADVANCE AUTO PT AAP AGJUNCTION INC AJX ALBIREO PHARMA ALBO ALGOMA CENTRAL ALC ARAMARK HOLDING ARMK BEAZER HOMES BZH BIOLASE TECH BIOL CAE INC CAE CAE INC-TS CAE CARGOJET INC CJT CATABASIS PHARM CATB CHAPARRAL EGY CHAP CHARAH SOLUTION CHRA CRONOS GROUP CRON CRONOS GROUP-TS CRO DAQO NEW ENERGY DQ DARE BIOSCIENCE DARE DARIOHEALTH CP DRIO DEL FRISCOS RST DFRG DHX MEDIA LTD DHXM DHX MEDIA-TS DHX EDGEWELL PERSNL EPC ESTABLSHMT LABS ESTA EVOTEC AG-ADR EVTCY EYENOVIA INC EYEN GDS HOLDINGS GDS GREAT ELM CAP C GECC GWG HOLDINGS GWGH H2O INNOVATION HEO H2O INNOVATION HEOFF HIGHPOWER INTL HPJ HOME DEPOT HD INFUSYSTEM HLDG INFU JOUNCE THERAPTC JNCE LEATT CORP LEAT MAGIC SOFTWARE MGIC MAGNOLIA OIL&GS MGY MEDIWOUND LTD MDWD MERSANA THERPTS MRSN NATL VISION HLD EYE NETSOL TECH INC NTWK NINE ENERGY SVC NINE NORTHERN TECH NTIC ONCONOVA THERAP ONTX OPTINOSE INC OPTN ORION ENERGY SY OESX PALATIN TECH PTN PLYMOUTH IND RE PLYM REDHILL BIO-ADR RDHL RUBIUS THERAPTC RUBY S&P INDL SPIN SAEXPLORATN HLD SAEX SELECT INT CONC SIC STRATA SKIN SCI SSKN SUPERCOND TECH SCON SUPERIOR GOLD SGI SYPRIS SOLUTION SYPR TECOGEN INC TGEN TYSON FOODS A TSN VALEURA ENERGY VLE WHERE FOOD CFI WFCF XINYUAN REAL ES XIN BAYER A G -ADR BAYRY NEW LOOK VISION BCI SOUTHGOBI RESRC SGQRF SOUTHGOBI RE-TS SGQ
After Close
- ALEXCO RESOURCE AXU ALEXCO RESOURCS AXR AMYRIS INC AMRS ARCIMOTO INC FUV AUTO PROP REIT APR BIOCEPT INC BIOC BOXLIGHT CORP BOXL CALYXT INC CLXT CANACCORD GENTY CF CANACOL EGY-TS CNE CANACOL ENERGY CNNEF CAPRICOR THERAP CAPR CARDLYTICS INC CDLX CELCUITY INC CELC CENTRIC HEALTH CHH CHANTICLEER HLD BURG CUMBERLAND PHAR CPIX CUMULUS MEDIA CMLS CUSHMAN&WAKEFLD CWK DETERMINE INC DTRM ELECTROCORE LLC ECOR ELECTROMED INC ELMD EVOLVING SYSTEM EVOL FAMOUS DAVES DAVE FIVE POINT HLDG FPH FUSION CONNECT FSNN GRAN COLOMBIA GCM HILLENBRAND INC HI HOLLYSYS AUTOMT HOLI ICAD INC ICAD IMPRIMIS PHARMA IMMY INNERGEX REN-TS INE INNERGEX RENWBL INGXF INTERPACE DIAGN IDXG KEW MEDIA GRP KEW LARGO RESOURCES LGO MA-COM TECH SOL MTSI MAM SOFTWARE GP MAMS MARIN SOFTWARE MRIN MARRONE BIO INV MBII MIDWEST ENERGY MEEC MOSAIC CAP CP M MYOS RENS TECH MYOS NEPTUNE WELLNES NEPT NEPTUNE WELL-TS NTB ONCOCYTE CORP OCX OPGEN INC OPGN ORBIT GARANT DR OGD PARK LAWN CORP PLC PETIQ INC PETQ POINTS INTL LTD PCOM POINTS INTL-TS PTS POLAR POWER INC POLA QUEST RES HLDG QRHC RA MEDICAL SYST RMED REEDS INC REED RESIDEO TECH REZI RESONANT INC RESN ROXGOLD INC ROX SHOTSPOTTER INC SSTI SOLARWINDS CORP SWI STELCO HOLDINGS STL SVMK INC SVMK SWITCH INC-A SWCH SYNLOGIC INC SYBX TILRAY INC TLRY VAREX IMAGING VREX VIRTRA INC VTSI WIX.COM LTD WIX
Wednesday Nov 13
Before Open
- ACASTI PHARMA ACST ACASTI PHARM-TS APO AIMIA INC AIM AKUMIN INC AKU ALDEYRA THERAPT ALDX ARCOS DORADOS-A ARCO ATHENEX INC ATNX BIRNER DENTAL BDMS BLUE APRON HLDG APRN BOYD GROUP IF BYD BP MIDSTREAM LP BPMP CANADA GOOSE HD GOOS CANADA GOOSE-TS GOO CANOPY GROWTH CGC CHORUS AVIATION CHR CINEPLEX INC CGX COOTEK CAYMAN CTK COVIA HOLDINGS CVIA CYREN LTD CYRN DIGITAL ALLY IN DGLY EAGLE POINT CRD ECC EASTSIDE DISTIL EAST FIVE STAR QLTY FVE JAGUAR MINING JAGGF JAGUAR MINNG-TS JAG LIQTECH INTL LIQT LIVEXLIVE MEDIA LIVX LOBLAW COS LTD L LXRANDCO INC-B LXR MACYS INC M MAGNEGAS APPLD MNGA MERITOR INC MTOR NEO PERFORMANCE NEO QIWI PLC-ADR QIWI RADA ELECTRONIC RADA SEVEN STARS CLD SSC SINGING MACHINE SMDM STORNOWAY DIAMD SWY SUPERCOM LTD SPCB THESTREET.COM TST UNI-SELECT INC UNS XCEL BRANDS INC XELB XPEL TECHNOLOGS DAP XUNLEI LTD-ADR XNET PERSHING SQUARE PSHZF
After Close
- ACORN ENERGY IN ACFN ACUITYADS HLDGS AT AIT THERAPEUTIC AITB ASTEA INTL INC ATEA AURA MINERALS ORA BIOHITECH GLBL BHTG BIO-KEY INTL BKYI BOARDWALK REIT BOWFF BOARDWK REIT-TS BEI CAPSTONE CO INC CAPC CARMANAH TECH CMH CESCA THERAP KOOL CINEDIGM CORP CIDM CISCO SYSTEMS CSCO COHBAR INC CWBR COPA HLDGS SA-A CPA CRIUS ENERGY KWH DANAOS CORP DAC DUNDEE CORP DC ECHELON FIN HLD EFH EDAP TMS SA-ADR EDAP ENSERVCO CORP ENSV FALCONSTOR SFTW FALC GLADSTONE CAPTL GLAD GLUSKIN SHEF&AS GS GREENSPACE BRND JTR GRIFFON CORP GFF GSE SYSTEMS INC GVP IMAGEWARE SYS IWSY INNOVUS PHARMA INNV INTELLICHECK MO IDN INVESQUE INC IVQ IZEA WORLDWIDE IZEA JAGUAR HEALTH JAGX KINGOLD JEWELRY KGJI MADALENA ENERGY MVN MOBIVITY HLDGS MFON NEOVASC INC NVC NEOVASC INC NVCN NETAPP INC NTAP NETEASE INC NTES NORTECH SYSTEMS NSYS NOVABAY PHARMAC NBY NXT ENERGY SOL NSFDF NXT ENERGY-TS SFD PAYMENT DATA SY PYDS PENNANTPARK FRC PFLT PERSPECTA INC PRSP PRECISION OP/MA PEYE PYXIS TANKERS PXS REMARK MEDIA MARK RESEARCH SOLUTN RSSS RESHAPE LIFESCI RSLS RXI PHARMACEUT RXII SAVARIA CP SIS SG BLOCKS INC SGBX SIENNA SENR LIV SIA SIMULATION PLUS SLP SMART&FINAL STR SFS SOCIAL REALITY SRAX STREET CAP GRP SCB TELKONET INC TKOI TERVITA CORP TEV TITAN PHARMA TTNP TSS INC TSSI VIPSHOP HOLDNGS VIPS WHEATON PRC MTL WPM WHEATON PRCS-TS WPM WIDEPOINT CORP WYY XG TECH INC XGTI XPRESSPA GROUP XSPA YOGAWORKS INC YOGA ZOSANO PHARMA ZSAN ZTO EXPRESS INC ZTO
Thursday Nov 14
Before Open
- 58.COM INC-ADR WUBA AURIS MEDICAL EARS BERRY GLOBL GRP BERY BIO-PATH HLDGS BPTH BRADY CORP CL A BRC CANADIAN SOLAR CSIQ CELSION CORP CLSN CUBIC CORP CUB ECA MARCELLUS ECT ENERGIZER HLDGS ENR EROS INTL PLC EROS HLS THERAPEUTCS HLS IDEAL POWER INC IPWR LUXOFT HOLDING LXFT MAGAL SECURITY MAGS MANCHESTER UTD MANU NANO DIMENSION NNDM PENNEY (JC) INC JCP PLAZA RETL REIT PLZ POINTER TELOCAT PNTR SELLAS LIFE SCI SLS SPIRE INC SR SUBURB PROPANE SPH TEEKAY CORP TK TEEKAY LNG PTNR TGP TEEKAY TANKERS TNK WALMART INC WMT ZEALAND PHARMA ZEAL SUNDANCE ENERGY SNDE
After Close
- AMERICAS CAR-MT CRMT APPLD MATLS INC AMAT DATAWATCH CORP DWCH DIGI INTL INC DGII DYNAGAS LNG PTR DLNG ESCO TECH INC ESE GLOBANT SA GLOB HUAZHU GROUP HTHT KANE BIOTECH KNE MATTHEWS INTL-A MATW NANTHEALTH INC NH NATURAL GROCERS NGVC NORDSTROM INC JWN NVIDIA CORP NVDA PENNANTPARK INV PNNT POST HOLDINGS POST QUORUM INFORMTN QIS RISE EDUCAT-ADR REDU SHOE CARNIVAL SCVL SONOS INC SONO STRATEGIC ENV&E SENR VOXELJET AG-ADR VJET WESCO AIRCRAFT WAIR WILLIAMS-SONOMA WSM
Friday Nov 15
Before Open
- BIOFRONTERA AG BFRA HELMERICH&PAYNE HP VIACOM INC-A VIA VIACOM INC-B VIAB
After Close
- Nil
Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.
Trade Smart!