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FEAR NOT Brave Investors
Fed, POTUS, Chaos and Speculator Greed
The Week That Was:
Just when you thought the blind aversion to risk could not get anymore blinkered it does. The stockmarket threw out stumbling earnings, economic softspots, US political chaos, geopolitical chaos in Venezuela, Libya, Turkey, France and so many more. Does nothing else matter is this greed forsaken market. We have a POTUS claiming we have a great economy BUT must have another QE and rates cut 1 bp. The Federal Reserve ignored him, Trump’s two Fed picks dropped out. For a President to be oblivious to bubbles is one think but he is not, he warned about bubbles in previous years before he was elected. He is making these reckless statements at all time highs. VIX futures shorts have reached record highs, CFTC data shows, surpassing the build-up seen before last February’s “Volmageddon” blowup.
I remind you POTUS the stockmarket is not America and it is not the economy, I remind investors the same and understand your risks. Yes we had a big jobs report but look within and around that and again the stockmarket is not the economy.
Oil continued it’s pullback from its lofty highs with some POTUS tweeting and record US oil production.
Ad nauseum we repeat; In this surreal world that market prices can only go up, with bizzare acceptance that we can’t go down and you are a fool if you think otherwise. We have had mixed economic data, no decision on the trade war, no decision on Brexit and earnings have been marked down a beat won’t be hard to beat and here we are (see what ya wanna see).
The CBOE Volatility Index fell to another fresh seven-month low. There is NO Fear despite major nations in political chaos, including G-5 nations the US, France and the UK,
Economic reports for the most part continue to dissappoint, as said earlier the odd positive report is latched onto by the market, such as the robust jobs report. Be aware of the herd, the machines and the greed.Despite all the chaos we sit over 2940 on the S&P as the so called Powell Put and POTUS obsession with the Dow has put us in the Twilight zone with risk reward. WTI plays around $62 and OPEC giving mixed signals,
The Week Ahead
A big week for Asian and Oceania Central Banks. We have the RBA, which has held policy steady for 29 meetings with many expecting a cut, the RBNZ also expected to cut and Asian central banks in Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines also meeting. We start off the week with Eurozone March Retail Sales, with the EZ the largest economic bloc in the world the global growth outlook is the story here.
Again the issue is the disconnect between the story telling about the China deal and inconclusion between the Tories and Labor in the UK. The punters are fully loaded with ATH stocks and a 2 year high USD, reeking havoc on emerging economies and risk profiles. What could go wrong?
Keep an eye on IPO’s after the dismal reversal of Lyft’s IPO.May there already 12 new filings including Uber (UBER) out this week.
It is now over two months since the latest trade deal between the United States with China deadline of March 1. The White house has said it needs more time. Are we the only one that sees the constant reset to keep markets elevated? If you have half a non partisan brain it should be all pretty clear the great game going on.
For emerging markets the high US dollar means the Fragile 5 continue to shake. Argentina and Turkey are red letter risks, 11 weeks of losses in the last 12 have the Turkish lira sliding back toward six to the dollar, the level that set caused panic last year. South Africa has Presidential elections on May 8. Voters will be going to the polls in Poland, Argentina, India and Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand this year. Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask?
If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.
Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have China and the U.S.trade wars.
Earnings last week included Alphabet, Diamond Offshore, Spotify, Apple, General Electric, General Motors, Advanced Micro Devices, CVS, Transocean, Estee Lauder and Dow Chemical This week we have Allergan, Electronic Arts, Emerson Electric, Lyft, Occidental Petroleum, Marriott, Pioneer Natural Resources, Norwegian Cruise, Tyson Foods, Viacom, Yelp and Zillow
-comment section below data-
Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar
- US Created 263,000 More Jobs in April With Unemployment Lowest in 49 Years
- Into The Vortex – EIA Reports Build of 123 Bcf in Natural Gas Storage
- Around The Barrel – Crude Oil and Gasoline Both Build as Production Hits Another Record High
The Week That Was – Last Weeks Recap
- Deepwater Driller Transocean Reports Smaller Loss on Higher Revenue
- Alphabet Earnings Suffer From Slowing Google Advertising Revenue
Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*
Which Stocks Moved US ETF’s Last Week
US Stock Indices Performance
The $SPX momentum continued with a sharp thrust Friday to ATH as the downside holding the daily tenkan between +2/8 and +3/8 MurreyMath and the chikou.
On the weekly we see the breakdown retest from last year being retested.with ATH and near +2/8. All well overbought signals, caution if long with target now met from the 1.618% downside extenstion break retention.
10 Year Treasury Note
US Crude Oil (WTI)
The daily WTi is a textbook in Ichimoku these last few weeks. reversed back inside the pennant and accelerated lower though the tenkan (orange) closing the week with a bounce off thr Kijun (pink) and lower pennant confluence. Then boom and through the Kijun to the channel and 50. Note the zAdams theory in the last two spits.
WTI from the weekly cloud above the 50wma (green) and Kijun Sen (pink) to bring chikou back in balance (blue) . Tenkan remains support – watch Murrey confluence with cloud above.
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Natural Gas closed back over the previous 100% or the 2017-18 low and -3/8 Murrey Math after failing to run getting just over the tenkan but again no momentum. Above ijun, ma and 50 dma.
Natural Gas closed back over the prev 100% also the 2017-18 low and bounced but as daily also showed a lack of impulse both ways. Upside resistance is heavy with Tenkan and previous breaks.
Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
Australian Dollar – AUDUSD
The Aussie dollar spat the weekly Tenkan and Kijun but with no impulse and down it came to trade under the .70 cent level but again no impulse there. AUD stayed in the range of 1/8 to 3/8 Murrey Math. Elections ahead may get some volatility.
New Zealand Dollar – NZDUSD
The kiwi broke under its daily channel, coming back to retest it and the tenkan after finding the Murrey Math 4/8. Is this a break or a new range?
Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)
The Loonie used the energy from the tenkan (orange) on the downside and the Murray Math 3/8 to break the weekly pennant (white), from here tenkan and break points. The Kijun closed through the Tenkan.
The Euro Weekly spat the recent lows again after testing the channel and potential bull flag. Again we now evaulate if the previous spit reversal after breaking the highlighted Fib was conclusive. If we do get a rally over Tenkan Adam’s Theory should apply.
The channel that is Brexit closed over the Tenkan as the EURUSD component held the channel, back testing the chikou and lower band. With all the politics the channel remains valid for now.
Japanese Yen (USDJPY)
The dollar yen daily gives us a clearer look of what happned on the weekly after spat the previous highs at a time when the USD index was make significant highs, divergence between the Yen and other currencies.In an environment that is risk off this is a warning shot. Above us is tenkan tenkan(orange) which held and the effective double bottom from Mar/Dec 2018 is below under the daily cloud. The weekly cloud and pennant break (blue) the range.
Mexican Peso (USDMXN)
The Mexican peso tested the bottom of the cloud then weakened this week with the rest of the emerging markets closing near the tenkan in the USDMZN with the Daily 0/8 Murrey Math support.
Turkish Lire (USDTRY)
No respite for te Turkish Lire We are above the +2/8 Murrey Math and the downside the Kijun, The 50 also supported. Ten weeks of losses in the last 11 have the Turkish lira sliding back toward six to the dollar, the level that set caused panic last year.
Bitcoin testing its breakdown from Dec (red) above the pennant and the daily tenkan after flirting with 5-8 Murrey Math grid. Use your MM rules as the algos control the herd here with Tenkan and weekly highs your guides..
The Week Ahead
Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week
Mon May 6 2019
- All Day Holiday United Kingdom – Early May Bank Holiday
- All Day Holiday South Korea – Children’s Day
- All Day Holiday Japan – Children’s Day
- 03:15 EUR Spanish Services PMI (Apr)
- 03:45 EUR Italian Services PMI (Apr)
- 03:50 EUR French Markit Composite PMI (Apr)
- 03:50 EUR French Services PMI (Apr)
- 03:55 EUR German Composite PMI (Apr)
- 03:55 EUR German Services PMI (Apr)
- 04:00 EUR Spanish Consumer Confidence
- 04:00 EUR Markit Composite PMI (Apr)
- 04:00 EUR Services PMI (Apr)
- 04:30 EUR Sentix Investor Confidence (May)
- 05:00 EUR Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)
- 05:00 EUR Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
- 09:30 USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
- 10:00 USD CB Employment Trends Index (Apr)
- 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
- 13:45 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
- 17:00 KRW FX Reserves – USD (Apr)
- 18:30 AUD AIG Construction Index (Apr)
- 20:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI (Apr) (Mar)
- 21:30 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
- 21:30 AUD Trade Balance (Mar)
- 23:00 NZD Inflation Expectations (QoQ)
Tues May 7 2019
- 00:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (May)
- 00:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
- 02:00 EUR German Factory Orders (MoM) (Mar)
- 02:00 EUR German Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)
- 02:45 EUR French Trade Balance (Mar)
- 03:30 GBP Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Apr) 0
- Tentative CNY FX Reserves (USD)
- 04:30 HKD Foreign Reserves (USD)
- 05:00 EUR EU Economic Forecasts
- 08:55 USD Redbook (YoY)
- Tentative USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
- 10:00 USD JOLTs Job Openings (Ma
- 10:00 CAD Ivey PMI n.s.a (Apr)
- 10:00 CAD Ivey PMI (Apr)
- 10:20 BRL Auto Production (MoM
- Tentative NZD GlobalDairyTrade Price Index
- 13:00 USD 3-Year Note Auction
- Tentative USD Loan Officer Survey
- 15:00 USD Consumer Credit (Mar)
- 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
- 19:00 KRW Current Account (Mar)
- 19:50 JPY BoJ Summary of Opinions
- 19:50 JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
- 21:30 AUD RBA Chart Pack Release
- 22:00 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
- 22:00 NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
- 23:00 NZD RBNZ Press Conference
- 23:35 JPY 10-Year JGB Auction
Wed May 8 2019
- All Day Holiday South Africa – Election Day
- 01:45 CHF Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Apr)
- 02:00 EUR German Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)
- 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
- 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
- 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Market Index
- 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Refinance Index
- 07:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
- 08:15 CAD Housing Starts (Apr)
- 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:04 CNY Trade Balance (USD) (Apr)
- 13:00 USD 10-Year Note Auction
- 19:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Apr)
- 19:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance (Apr)
- 21:30 CNY CPI (YoY) (Apr)
- 21:30 CNY CPI (MoM) (Apr)
- 21:30 CNY PPI (YoY) (Apr)
Thur May 9 2019
- All Day Holiday Russia – Victory Day
- 01:00 JPY Household Confidence (Apr)
- 03:00 EUR Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar)
- 08:30 USD PPI (MoM) (Apr)
- 08:30 USD Trade Balance (Mar)
- 08:30 CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM)
- 08:30 CAD Trade Balance (Mar)
- 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
- 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
- 09:45 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
- 10:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Mar)
- 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
- 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
- 13:00 USD 30-Year Bond Auction
- 13:15 USD Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks
- 19:30 JPY Average Cash Earnings (YoY) (Mar)
- 19:30 JPY Household Spending (MoM) (Mar)
- 19:50 JPY Foreign Bonds Buying
- 19:50 JPY Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks
- 21:30 AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
Friday May 10, 2019
- 02:00 EUR German Trade Balance (Mar)
- 02:45 EUR French Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)
- 04:00 EUR Italian Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)
- 04:30 GBP Business Investment (QoQ) (Q1)
- 04:30 GBP Construction Output (MoM) (Mar)
- 04:30 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
- 04:30 GBP Index of Services
- 04:30 GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)
- 04:30 GBP Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change 0.3%
- 04:30 GBP Trade Balance (Mar)
- Tentative CNY New Loans
- 05:00 EUR Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)
- 08:30 USD CPI (MoM) (Apr)
- 08:30 CAD Employment Report (Apr)
- Tentative GBP NIESR GDP Estimate
- 09:05 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
- 11:00 USD Cleveland CPI (MoM) (Apr)
- 12:00 USD WASDE Report
- 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
- 15:30 USD CFTC speculative net positions
Notable Earnings Reports This Week
*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available
Monday May 6
- AFFIL MANAGERS AMG AIR CANADA ACDVF BAUSCH HEALTH BHC CAMTEK LIMITED CAMT CARGOJET INC CJT CERAGON NETWRKS CRNT EARTHSTONE EGY ESTE FOUR SEASONS ED FEDU KOSMOS ENERGY KOS PETMED EXPRESS PETS SYSCO CORP SYY TREVALI MINING TV TYSON FOODS A TSN
After Market Close
- ASSURANT INC AIZ AVID TECH INC AVID BLACK STONE MNL BSM CABOT CORP CBT CINER RESOURCES CINR COHU INC COHU DEL TACO RSTRNT TACO LUMINEX CORP LMNX MOSAIC CO/THE MOS MTS SYSTEMS MTSC NAUTILUS INC NLS OCCIDENTAL PET OXY PIONEER NAT RES PXD RENT-A-CENTER RCII TESSCO TECH INC TESS THERAPEUTICS MD TXMD TIDEWATER INC TDW
Tuesday May 7
- ADIENT PLC ADNT AES CORP AES ALLERGAN PLC AGN ALLOGENE THERPS ALLO AMAG PHARMA INC AMAG ANHEUSER-BU ADR BUD ARAMARK HOLDING ARMK ARRAY BIOPHARMA ARRY AVANOS MEDICAL AVNS BOISE CASCADE BCC CINEMARK HLDGS CNK CLOVIS ONCOLOGY CLVS CROCS INC CROX DEAN FOODS CO DF DEL FRISCOS RST DFRG DOVA PHARMACUET DOVA EMERSON ELEC CO EMR FERRARI NV RACE GARTNER INC -A IT HENRY SCHEIN IN HSIC JONES LANG LASL JLL MANNKIND CORP MNKD MARRIOT VAC WW VAC MYLAN NV MYL REGENERON PHARM REGN SEMPRA ENERGY SRE TUESDAY MORNING TUES ADECCO SA U-ADR AHEXY BMW AG BAMXF
- 2U INC TWOU After Market Close N/A -0.35 N/A ADT INC ADT ALLEGHANY CORP Y CARRIZO OIL&GAS CRZO CHUYS HOLDINGS CHUY DIAMONDBACK EGY FANG DIODES INC DIOD EAGLE BULK SHPG EGLE ELECTR ARTS INC EA FARMER BROS CO FARM GENOMIC HEALTH GHDX HI-CRUSH PTNRS HCLP JAZZ PHARMACEUT JAZZ KINROSS GOLD KGC LYFT INC-A LYFT MATCH GROUP INC MTCH MYRIAD GENETICS MYGN OASIS PETROLEUM OAS OMEGA HLTHCARE OHI PAPA JOHNS INTL PZZA PARKER DRILLING PKD PLANTRONICS INC PLT POTBELLY CORP PBPB TRIPADVISOR INC TRIP WESTERN UNION WU WINGSTOP INC WING
Wednesday May 8
- ACUSHNET HLDGS GOLF ALIO GOLD INC ALO AVADEL PHARMA AVDL BARRICK GOLD CP GOLD BARRICK GOLD-TS ABX BIOCRYST PHARMA BCRX CHESAPEAKE ENGY CHK EL PASO ELEC CO EE GOODRICH PET CP GDP HONDA MOTOR HMC MARATHON PETROL MPC MCKESSON CORP MCK NY TIMES A NYT OFFICE DEPOT ODP PLUG POWER INC PLUG TC PIPELINES TCP THOMSON REUTERS TRI VERTEX ENERGY VTNR VITAMIN SHOPPE VSI VONAGE HOLDINGS VG WEATHERFORD INT WFT WENDYS CO/THE WEN
- ACADIAN TIMBER ADN ACELRX PHARMACT ACRX ACLARIS THERAPT ACRS AILERON THERAP ALRN AKCEA THERAPEUT AKCA ALEXCO RESOURCE AXU ARCADIA BIOSCI RKDA ARENA PHARMA ARNA AVINO SILVER&GD ASM AXOGEN INC AXGN BAIN CAPITAL BCSF BERRY PETE CP BRY BIO-RAD LABS -A BIO CABOT MICROELEC CCMP CRAFT BREW ALLN BREW DISNEY WALT DIS ETSY INC ETSY FOSSIL GRP INC FOSL FOX CORP-A FOXA HOSTESS BRANDS TWNK IAC/INTERACTIV IAC MATSON INC MATX MICROCHIP TECH MCHP NEKTAR THERAP NKTR NUANCE COMM INC NUAN PAN AMER SILVER PAAS QUINTANA ENERGY QES REDFIN CORP RDFN ROKU INC ROKU SUNOCO LP SUN TUCOWS INC TCX ZIOPHARM ONCLGY ZOGENIX INC ZGNX
Thursday May 9
- AKEBIA THERAP AKBA ALDEYRA THERAPT ALDX AMC ENTERTAINMT AMC AVAYA HOLDINGS AVYA CARDINAL HEALTH CAH CENTERPOINT EGY CNP CHENIERE ENERGY LNG CRONOS GROUP CRON DUKE ENERGY CP DUK LIBERTY SIRI-C LSXMK MAGNA INTL CL A MGA MCCLATCHY CO-A MNI NATURAL GAS SVC NGS NORWEGIAN CRUIS NCLH NUSTAR ENERGY NS PARTY CITY HOCO PRTY PRESTIGE BRANDS PBH REPLIGEN RGEN REVLON INC-A REV TAPESTRY INC TPR TENNECO INC TEN TRADE DESK INC TTD
- ACCELERON PHARM XLRN ALGONQUIN POWER AQN AMBAC FINL GRP AMBC ASURE SOFTWARE ASUR BIOLIFE SOL INC BLFS BOOKING HOLDNGS BKNG CALLAWAY GOLF ELY CHROMADEX CORP CDXC CORVUS PHARMACT CRVS CUMULUS MEDIA CMLS DROPBOX INC-A DBX EASTMAN KODAK KODK EQUIFAX INC EFX GOPRO INC-A GPRO MAXAR TECH INC MAXR MELINTA THERAPT MLNT NEWS CORP NEW-A NWSA NEWS CORP-B NWS PDL BIOPHARMA PDLI SIERRA WIRELESS SWIR SONOS INC SONO SPECTRUM PHARMA SPPI SSR MINING INC SSRM SYMANTEC CORP SYMC SYNAPTICS INC SYNA TIVO CORP TIVO US AUTO PARTS PRTS VALE SA VALE VIVINT SOLAR VSLR YELP INC YELP YPF SA D CV ADR YPF ZILLOW GROUP ZG ZILLOW GROUP-C Z
Friday May 10
- AMPCO-PITTSBRGH AP BARINGS BDC INC BBDC BRF-BRASIL FOOD BRFS BUCKEYE PARTNRS BPL CARS.COM INC CARS CHINA YUCHAI CYD ENBRIDGE INC ENB ENERPLUS CORP ERF EW SCRIPPS CO SSP GP STRATEGIES GPX JD.COM INC-ADR JD LINDE PLC LIN MARRIOTT INTL-A OCULAR THERAPTX OCUL PATTERN ENERGY PEG RMR GROUP INC RMR TRIBUNE MEDIA TRCO UTSTARCOM HLDGS UTSI VIACOM INC-B VIAB
- CHINA BIOLOGIC CBPO After Market Close N/A 0.99 N/A DUNDEE CORP DC EUROPEAN RES RE ERE LONESTAR RESRCS LONE NII HOLDINGS NIHD TRANSPORTADORA TGS
For More Earnings and estimates visit Morningstar Earnings Here
Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.