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FEAR NOT Brave Investors
Memorial Day, Chaos and Trade Wars
The Week That Was:
Another week of confusion with China and POTUS comments spinning markets around. Premier stocks including $QCOM and $TSLA took huge hits, Crude oil fell over 5% in a day. Over in the UK the Brexit mess claimed PM May. In the US the Partisan politics has reached fever pitch between Pelosi and Trump. Rare earth bans from China is the latest threat overhanging.
Over in Australia the conservative LNP notched a surprise re-election. The 2019 Indian general election saw PM Modi return with an increased majority. European Union members across the EU are electing more than 700 politicians to fill the body’s parliament, the newly formed Brexit Party in the UK is crushing it’s Labor and Tory rivals.This brings us back to what is a surprise what MSM wants and proclaims or that their jaded firecasts were wrong?
By week’s end the Dow held off multipole sell off attempts and closed above the recent lows but well under upside triggers. Crude oil recovered about half its loss. Red flags remain; US political chaos, geopolitical chaos in Venezuela, Libya, Turkey, Iran, France and so many more. Economically the global PMI’s were all soft.
Ad nauseum, This week should remind you to stay on your toes, ad nauseum we repeat; In this surreal world that market prices can only go up, with bizzare acceptance that we can’t go down and you are a fool if you think otherwise. We have had mixed economic data, no decision on the trade war, no decision on Brexit and earnings have been marked down a beat won’t be hard to beat and here we are (see what ya wanna see).
The Week Ahead
A big week for trade wars continues the People’s Republic of China release of the ‘official’ manufacturing sector Purchasing Managers’ Index. With most analysts saying a US-China trade deal will remain out of reach regardless of whether the two countries’ leaders meet at the upcoming G-20 meeting in Osaka, Japan, on 28-29 June.
The Federal Reserve vice-chairman speaks this week and we see data on personal income and spending, factory activity and a final reading on the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index. In Europe we have the results of the elections to the European Parliament to paw over. German consumer confidence and Bank of England mortgage lending and consumer credit data is up and over in Japan unemployment, CPI and industrial production are due
Again the issue is the disconnect between the story telling about the China deal and inconclusion between the Tories and Labor in the UK. What could go wrong?
It is now over two months since the latest trade deal between the United States with China deadline of March 1. The White house said it needs more time, then turned around and slapped more tariffs on and said hey we are still talking. . Are we the only one that sees the constant reset to keep markets elevated? If you have half a non partisan brain it should be all pretty clear the great game going on.
For emerging markets the high US dollar means the Fragile 5 continue to shake. Argentina and Turkey are red letter risks, 12 weeks of losses in the last 14 have the Turkish lira sliding back toward six to the dollar, the level that set caused panic last year. Voters will be going to the polls in Poland, Argentina, India and Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand this year.
Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask?
If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.
Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have China and the U.S.trade wars.
Earnings last week included Best Buy, Foot Locker, Hibberts, Home Depot, Lowe’s, Nordstrom, Splunk, Target,TJX and Urban Outfitters. This week we get a deluge of retailers earnings including Abercrombie & Fitch, Burlington Stores, Canada Goose, Costco, Designer Brands, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Dollar Tree, Gap, Calvin Klein parent PVH and Ulta Beauty.
-comment section below data-
Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar
- U.S. Takes off 5 More Oil Rigs, Now off 91 Rigs Since Cycle High
- Oil and Gas Midstream Services Unit of Diamondback, Rattler Midstream IPO
- Into The Vortex – EIA Reports +100 Bcf Natural Gas Storage Build
- American Military Companies Most Dependant on Chinese Rare Earth Supplies
- US Gulf Coast LNG Export Capacity To Exceed 7 Bcf/d By End of Year
- Around The Barrel – Crude Oil, Gasoline and Distillate Inventories All Build With Rising Production
- U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue To Fall as Inventories Rise
The Week That Was – Last Weeks Recap
- Hibbert Sports Smashes Earnings Sending Stock Up 20%
- Golar LNG Focuses on FLNG With TFDE LNG Carrier Spinoff
Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*
Which Stocks Moved US ETF’s Last Week
US Stock Indices Performance
The $SPX spent all week stuck in the cloud ina relative tight range with multiple attempts to break down. M omentum was thwarted at the daily cloud again after the recent ATH and spat the Tenkan on the rebound. The cloud and recent low are now support, The tenkan, +2/8 and the chikou resistance. The question is what that an A Complete, ABC complete or a 4 of (i) – use your 240 for guidance there.
On the weekly we see the previous high fail near +2/8. We had the fall but we spat back above the weekly Tenkan to close at it last week and under it this week. Clearer here the wave alts we asked on the daily.
10 Year Treasury Note
Energy and Commodities
US Crude Oil (WTI)
Crude oil broke down hard and fast out of its tight range. The Daily ABC B or ii) broke with impulse testing the highlighted 38% but managed to bounce back into the cloud at week’s end. Note the acceleration after the kiss of death from Tenkan touching Kijun. Note the Adams theory in the last two spits. Energy came from coiling between the 50dma and the Tenkan and channel.
WTI on the weekly cloud came off after touching the cloud twist, signifying all in – finished the week under the 50wma (green) and Tekan with Kijun Sen (pink) to bring chikou back in balance (blue) attracted to the cloud twist.- watch Murrey confluence with the cloud acting as resistance.
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Natural Gas remians ina tight range, after holding the previous 100% or the 2017-18 low and -3/8 Murrey Math it is jammed between the Kijun and Tenkan under the 50 dma. At some point pressure gives way.
Natural Gas since closed back over the prev 100% also the 2017-18 low and bounced has been floating sideways with upside resistance heavy with Tenkan and previous breaks. When do the doldrums end?
Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
Australian Dollar AUDUSD
The Aussie dollar showed life at the end of the week with the chikou and the Tenkan flattenimg above. AUD trying to get back into the range of 1/8 to 3/8 Murrey Math. THe LNP Election suprise may ease volatility.
New Zealand Dollar – NZDUSD
The kiwi reversed higher at the end of the week over the Tenkan with impulse. Above is the previous daily channel, key is the tenkan and the Murrey Math 4/8
Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)
The Loonie contues in its weekly channel above the tenkan (orange) on the downside and the Murray Math 3/8 , from here tenkan and break points. The Kijun flattened at the Tenkan.
The Euro Weekly remains in the channel and potential bull flag under the tenkan Again we now evaulate if the previous spit reversal after breaking the highlighted Fib was conclusive. If we do get a rally over Tenkan Adam’s Theory should apply.
EURGBP locked in the channel with the recent May resignation putting it back to the mean. The channel that is Brexit closed over the Kijun as the EURUSD component held the channel, back testing the cloud. With all the politics the channel remains valid for now.
Japanese Yen (USDJPY)
The dollar yen again led with for risk, geopolitical and market. The daily gives us a clearer look of what happened on the weekly after it spat the previous highs at a time when the USD index was making significant highs, divergence between the Yen and other currencies. Above us is tenkan tenkan(orange) which held and the effective double bottom from Mar/Dec 2018 is below under the daily cloud. The weekly cloud and pennant break (blue) the range.
Mexican Peso (USDMXN)
The Mexican peso in the big picture has been sideways for a LONG time under the cloud, MXN soft with the rest of the emerging markets closing near the tenkan in the USDMXN with the Weekly 5/8 Murrey Math resistance.
Turkish Lire (USDTRY)
The Turkish Lire despite the move still sits above the tenkan above the +3/8 Murrey Math and 6.05 USDTRY. We watch this develop, a right shoulder for a sharp ABC or another 1-2?
Bitcoinback through breakdown from Dec (red) above the pennant and the daily tenkan after flirting with 1-8 Murrey Math grid. Is this a C Wave playing out or something larger higher? Use your MM rules as the algos control the herd here with Tenkan and weekly highs your guides..
The Week Ahead
Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week
Sunday, May 26, 2019
Tentative EUR European Parliament Elections 07:45 EUR ECB’s Lautenschlaeger Speaks 23:00 JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
Mon May 27 2019
- All Day Holiday United States – Memorial Day
- All Day Holiday United Kingdom – Spring Bank Holiday
- 01:00 JPY Leading Index
- Tentative GBP Nationwide HPI (MoM)
- 02:30 CHF Employment Level (Q1)
- 04:30 HKD Trade Balance
- 06:00 EUR France Jobseekers Total
- 19:50 JPY Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI)
Tues May 28 2019
- 01:00 JPY BoJ Core CPI (YoY)
- 01:45 CHF GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
- 02:00 CHF Trade Balance (Apr)
- 02:00 EUR German Import Price Index (MoM)
- 02:00 EUR GfK German Consumer Climate (Jun)
- 02:45 EUR French Consumer Confidence (May)
- 04:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance Non-EU (Apr)
- 04:00 EUR M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Apr)
- 04:00 EUR Private Sector Loans (YoY)
- 04:30 GBP Gross Mortgage Approvals
- Tentative GBP Inflation Report Hearings
- 05:00 EUR Business and Consumer Survey (May)
- 05:00 EUR Business Climate (May)
- 05:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (May)
- 05:00 EUR Services Sentiment (May)
- 05:00 EUR Industrial Sentiment (May)
- 06:15 EUR Spanish Business Confidence
- 09:00 USD House Price Index (MoM) (Mar)
- 09:00 USD S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 s.a. (MoM) (Mar)
- 10:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence (May)
- 10:30 USD Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (May)
- 11:30 USD 2-Year Note Auction
- 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
- 13:00 USD 5-Year Note Auction
- 17:00 KRW Manufacturing BSI Index (Jun)
- 17:00 NZD RBNZ Financial Stability Report
- 19:00 GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY)
- 20:00 JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
- Tentative AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)
- 21:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence (May)
- 21:00 NZD NBNZ Own Activity (May)
- 21:00 NZD RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
Wed May 29 2019
- 02:00 EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (Apr)
- 02:45 EUR French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Apr)
- 02:45 EUR French CPI (MoM)
- 02:45 EUR French GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
- 02:45 EUR French PPI (MoM) (Apr)
- 03:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicators (May)
- 03:55 EUR German Unemployment Change (May)
- 03:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate (May)
- 03:55 EUR German Unemployment (May)
- 04:00 EUR Italian Business Confidence (May)
- 04:00 EUR Italian Consumer Confidence (May)
- 04:00 CHF ZEW Expectations (May)
- 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
- 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
- 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
- 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index
- 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM)
- 10:00 USD Richmond Manufacturing Index
- 10:00 USD Richmond Services Index (May)
- 10:00 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision
- 10:30 USD Dallas Fed Services Revenues (May)
- 10:30 USD Texas Services Sector Outlook (May)
- 13:00 USD 7-Year Note Auction
- 17:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
- 18:45 NZD Building Consents (MoM) (Apr)
- 19:50 JPY Foreign Bonds Buying
- 19:50 JPY Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks
- 21:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence (May)
- 21:00 NZD NBNZ Own Activity (May)
- 21:30 AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (Apr)
- 21:30 AUD Building Capital Expenditure (MoM) (Q1)
- 21:30 AUD Plant/Machinery Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q1)
- 21:30 AUD Private House Approvals (Apr)
- 21:30 AUD Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q1)
- 22:00 NZD Annual Budget Release
Thur May 30 2019
- All Day Holiday Switzerland – Ascension Day
- 03:00 EUR Spanish CPI (MoM)
- 04:00 EUR Spanish Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr)
- 08:30 USD Core PCE Prices
- 08:30 USD Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q1)
- 08:30 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
- 08:30 USD GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q1)
- 08:30 USD Goods Trade Balance (Apr)
- 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
- 08:30 USD PCE Prices
- 08:30 USD Real Consumer Spending (Q1)
- 08:30 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Apr)
- 08:30 CAD Current Account (Q1)
- 10:00 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Apr)
- 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
- 11:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
- 12:00 USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
- 14:15 CAD BoC Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks
- 19:00 KRW Industrial Production (MoM)
- 19:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence (May)
- 19:30 JPY Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (May)
- 19:30 JPY Unemployment Rate (Apr)
- 19:50 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr)
- 19:50 JPY Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr)
- 21:00 KRW Interest Rate Decision (May)
- 21:00 CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI (May)
- 21:30 AUD Housing Credit (Apr)
- 22:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI (May)
Friday June 1, 2019
- 01:00 JPY Construction Orders (YoY) (Apr)
- 01:00 JPY Household Confidence (May)
- 02:00 GBP Nationwide HPI (MoM) (May)
- 02:00 EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
- 02:30 CHF Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr)
- 04:00 EUR Italian GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
- 04:00 EUR Spanish Current account (Mar)
- 04:30 GBP BoE Consumer Credit (Apr)
- 04:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals (Apr)
- 04:30 HKD Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr)
- 05:00 EUR Italian CPI (MoM) (May)
- 06:00 EUR Italian PPI (MoM) (Apr)
- 08:00 EUR German CPI (MoM) (May)
- 08:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Apr)
- 08:30 USD PCE Deflator (MoM)
- 08:30 USD Personal Income (MoM) (Apr)
- 08:30 USD Personal Spending (MoM) (Apr)
- 08:30 USD Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Apr)
- 08:30 CAD GDP Implicit Price (QoQ) (Q1)
- 08:30 CAD GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
- 08:30 CAD GDP (MoM) (Mar)
- 08:30 CAD IPPI (MoM) (Apr)
- 08:30 CAD RMPI (MoM) (Apr)
- 09:00 JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (Apr)
- 09:45 USD Chicago PMI (May)
- 10:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May)
- 11:00 CAD Budget Balance (Mar)
- 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count
- 15:30 CFTC speculative net positions
Notable Earnings Reports This Week
*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available
Monday May 27
After Market Close
Tuesday May 28
- AMER WOODMARK AMWD ANAPLAN INC PLAN BANK OF NOVA SC BNS BOOZ ALLEN HMLT BAH CELLCOM ISRAEL CEL JIANPU TECH-ADR JT LAIX INC LAIX MOMO INC -ADR MOMO ORCHARD THERAPT ORTX QUOTIENT LTD QTNT SAFE BULKERS SB XEBEC ADSORPTN XBC
- CANGO INC-ADR CANG ENWAVE CORP ENW HEICO CORP HEI INDIGO BKS&MSC IDG LIVERAMP HLDGS RAMP WORKDAY INC-A WDAY YY INC-ADR YY
Wednesday May 29
- 58.COM INC-ADR WUBA ABERCROMBIE ANF BANK MONTREAL BMO BIOSYENT INC RX BRAINSWAY LTD BWAY CANADA GOOSE HD GOOS CAPRI HOLDINGS CPRI COLUMBUS MCKINN CMCO DAKTRONICS INC DAKT DICKS SPRTG GDS DKS ELTEK LTD ELTK HAMILTON LANE HLNE ICLICK INTERACT ICLK VERSABANK VB
- AMERCO INC UHAL DESCARTES SYS DSGX ENERSYS INC ENS KEYSIGHT TECH KEYS PALO ALTO NETWK PANW PVH CORP PVH QAD INC-A QADA RTW RETAILWINDS RTW SEMTECH CORP SMTC TILLYS INC TLYS VEEVA SYSTEMS-A VEEV VERINT SYSTEMS VRNT WESTELL TECH-A WSTL
Thursday May 30
- BETTER ONLN SOL BOSC BITAUTO HOLDNGS BITA BRP INC DOOO BURLINGTON STRS BURL CANADIAN SOLAR CSIQ CORVEL CORP CRVL DESIGNER BRANDS DBI DOLLAR GENERAL DG DOLLAR TREE INC DLTR EXPRESS INC EXPR J JILL INC JILL LAURENTIAN BK LB MOGU INC-ADR MOGU NATL BK CDA NTIOF NEXUS REIT NXR NGL ENERGY PART NGL PARTNER COMM PTNR REX AMERICAN RS REX SANDERSON FARMS SAFM SPORTSMANS WRHS SPWH TECH DATA CORP TECD TITAN MACHINERY TITN XPEL TECHNOLOGS DAP
- ASCENDIS PHARMA ASND COOPER COS COO COSTCO WHOLE CP COST DELL TECHNOLOGS DELL GAP INC GPS IANTHUS CAP HLD IAN LIGHTSPEED POS LSP MARVELL TECH GP MRVL NUTANIX INC-A NTNX OKTA INC OKTA RED ROBIN GOURM RRGB ULTA BEAUTY INC ULTA VMWARE INC-A VMW YEXT INC YEXT ZSCALER INC ZS ZUORA INC ZUO
Friday June 1
- BUILD-A-BEAR WK BBW GENESCO INC GCO YINTECH INVSTMT YIN
For More Earnings and estimates visit Morningstar Earnings Here
Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.