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FEAR NOT Brave Investors
OPEC, Chaos and Trade Wars
The Week That Was:
Another week of confusion with China and POTUS comments spinning markets around like rag dolls. By week’s end the Dow closed above the recent lows but well under upside triggers. It seemed every time the market was about to puke a timely rumor or POTUS tweet came in to spark a rally. This is no accident, the constant panic selling and short covering keeps the market bid short term and taking out some of the froth.
Red flags remain; US political chaos, geopolitical chaos in Venezuela, Libya, Turkey, Iran, France and so many more. Oil seemed to be sidelined after it’s pullback from its lofty highs, much of this was squaring ahead of the OPEC JMMC.
Ad nauseum, This week should remind you to stay on your toes, ad nauseum we repeat; In this surreal world that market prices can only go up, with bizzare acceptance that we can’t go down and you are a fool if you think otherwise. We have had mixed economic data, no decision on the trade war, no decision on Brexit and earnings have been marked down a beat won’t be hard to beat and here we are (see what ya wanna see).
We did warn “The CBOE Volatility Index fell to another fresh seven-month low. There is NO Fear despite major nations in political chaos, including G-5 nations the US, France and the UK”
The Week Ahead
A big week for trade wars continues but we also have purchasing managers surveys in the eurozone and in the U.S., data on existing- and new-home sales plus durable goods orders are released. The results of the 2019 Indian general election will be announced on Thursday, 23 May. From 23-26 May European Union members across the EU are electing more than 700 politicians to fill the body’s parliament. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be releasing its minutes from its last meeting at 2 p.m. ET We start of the week with the Japan Q1 GDP Report, a look at another of the world’s largest economies and a China neighbour. It helps a guage the market’s perception of the effectiveness of policy stimulus measures in Japan.
Again the issue is the disconnect between the story telling about the China deal and inconclusion between the Tories and Labor in the UK. What could go wrong?
Keep an eye on IPO’s after the dismal reversal of Lyft’s IPOand the Uber (UBER) misstep.
It is now over two months since the latest trade deal between the United States with China deadline of March 1. The White house said it needs more time, then turned around and slapped more tariffs on and said hey we are still talking. . Are we the only one that sees the constant reset to keep markets elevated? If you have half a non partisan brain it should be all pretty clear the great game going on.
For emerging markets the high US dollar means theFragile 5 continue to shake. Argentina and Turkey are red letter risks, 11 weeks of losses in the last 13 have the Turkish lira sliding back toward six to the dollar, the level that set caused panic last year. Voters will be going to the polls in Poland, Argentina, India and Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand this year. Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask?
If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.
Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have China and the U.S.trade wars.
Earnings last week included Alibaba, Applied Materials, Cisco, Cyberark, Deere, iQiyi, Macy’s, Netease, NVidia, Pinterest, Ralph Lauren, Take-Two Interactive, Tilray and Walmart. This week we have Best Buy, Foot Locker, Home Depot, Lowe’s, Nordstrom, Splunk, Target,TJX and Urban Outfitters.
-comment section below data-
Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar
- Dude Where’s My Uber? A Story of Greed and Delusion or Opportunity?
- U.S. Takes off Another 2 Oil Rigs With Production Near Record Highs
- Canada Added More Jobs in April Than Any Month on Record
- Into The Vortex – EIA Reports +85 Bcf Natural Gas Storage Build
- U.S. Trade Deficit $50 Billion With Lower China Imports Again
- Around The Barrel – Crude Oil Draws 3963k bbl With Smaller Product Draws
- Spring Homebuying Season Sees Mortgage Applications Rise
- RBA Leaves Rate Unchanged With Further Spare Capacity in Australian Economy
The Week That Was – Last Weeks Recap
- Sonos Beats Earnings and Launches Google Assistant Support
- Dropbox Earnings Beat as Paying Cloud and File Sharing Customers Rise
Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*
Which Stocks Moved US ETF’s Last Week
US Stock Indices Performance
The $SPX momentum was thwarted at the daily cloud again after the recent ATH and spat the Tenkan on the rebound. The cloud and recent low are now support, The tenkan, +2/8 and the chikou resistance. The question is what that an A Complete, ABC complete or a 4 of (i) – use your 240 for guidance there.
On the weekly we see the previous high fail near +2/8. We had the fall but we spat back above the weekly Tenkan to close at it on the week. Clearer here the wave alts we asked on the daily.
10 Year Treasury Note
Energy and Commodities
US Crude Oil (WTI)
The daily WTi is a textbook in Ichimoku these last few weeks. reversed back inside the pennant and accelerated lower though the tenkan (orange) closing the week with a bounce off thr Kijun (pink) and lower pennant confluence. Then boom and through the Kijun to the channel and 50. Note the Adams theory in the last two spits. This week we have seen coiling between the 50dma and the Tenkan and channel.
WTI from the weekly cloud above the 50wma (green) and Kijun Sen (pink) to bring chikou back in balance (blue) . Tenkan remains support which we spat the week with the 50wma- watch Murrey confluence with cloud above.
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Natural Gas after holding the previous 100% or the 2017-18 low and -3/8 Murrey Math aclosed above the Kijun and 50 dma.With the Tenkan trying to go through the Kijun.
Natural Gas closed back over the prev 100% also the 2017-18 low and bounced. Upside resistance is heavy with Tenkan and previous breaks.
Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
Australian Dollar AUDUSD
The Aussie dollar broke under the recent lows with the weekly Tenkan and Kijun sending it lower just under .70 cents l but again no impulse there. AUD stayed in the range of 1/8 to 3/8 Murrey Math. Elections ahead may get some volatility.
New Zealand Dollar – NZDUSD
The kiwi broke lower with the RBNZ but came back at the end of the week over the Tenkan with impulse. Above is the previous daily channel, key is the tenkan and the Murrey Math 4/8.
Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)
The Loonie used the energy from the tenkan (orange) on the downside and the Murray Math 3/8 to break the weekly pennant (white), from here tenkan and break points. The Kijun flattened at the Tenkan.
The Euro Weekly remains in the channel and potential bull flag under the tenkan Again we now evaulate if the previous spit reversal after breaking the highlighted Fib was conclusive. If we do get a rally over Tenkan Adam’s Theory should apply.
No real change for EURGBP. The channel that is Brexit closed over the Tenkan as the EURUSD component held the channel, back testing the chikou and lower band. With all the politics the channel remains valid for now.
Japanese Yen (USDJPY)
The dollar yen has been the leader for risk, geopolitical and market. The daily gives us a clearer look of what happened on the weekly after it spat the previous highs at a time when the USD index was making significant highs, divergence between the Yen and other currencies. Above us is tenkan tenkan(orange) which held and the effective double bottom from Mar/Dec 2018 is below under the daily cloud. The weekly cloud and pennant break (blue) the range.
Mexican Peso (USDMXN)
The Mexican peso contues to weaken, through the cloud, MXN weakened this week with the rest of the emerging markets closing near the tenkan in the USDMXN with the Daily 3/8 Murrey Math resistance.
Turkish Lire (USDTRY)
The Turkish Lire broke above the +2/8 Murrey Math and ran to 6.20 USDTRY before pulling back to 6 back the tenkan. The downside the Kijun and the 50. Was that a 3 or c completing after the 6 stop losses, the level that set caused panic last year?
Bitcoinback through breakdown from Dec (red) above the pennant and the daily tenkan after flirting with 5-8 Murrey Math grid. Is this a C Wave playing out or something larger higher? Use your MM rules as the algos control the herd here with Tenkan and weekly highs your guides..
The Week Ahead
Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week
Mon May 20 2019
- All Day Holiday Canada – Victoria Day
- All Day Holiday Singapore – Vesak Day
- 00:30 JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (Mar)
- 00:30 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)
- 02:00 EUR German PPI (MoM) (Apr)
- 04:00 EUR ECB’s Praet Speaks
- 05:00 EUR Current Account (Mar)
- Tentative EUR German Buba Monthly Report
- 08:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity (Apr)
- 09:30 USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
- 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
- 12:30 GBP BoE MPC Member Broadbent Speaks
- 13:05 USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
- 13:05 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
- 17:00 KRW PPI (MoM) (Apr)
- 19:00 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
- 20:00 SGD GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
- 21:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
- 23:00 NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY)
Tues May 21 2019
- 04:00 EUR Spanish Trade Balance
- 04:30 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
- 04:30 GBP BoE MPC Member Saunders Speaks
- 04:30 GBP MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks
- 04:30 GBP BoE MPC Member Broadbent Speaks
- 05:00 EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
- Tentative GBP Inflation Report Hearings
- 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM)
- 10:00 USD Existing Home Sales (Apr)
- 10:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (May)
- 10:30 NZD GlobalDairyTrade Price Index
- 10:45 USD Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks
- 11:30 USD 52-Week Bill Auction
- 12:00 USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
- 17:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
- 18:45 NZD Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q1)
- 19:00 JPY Reuters Tankan Index (May)
- 19:50 JPY Core Machinery Orders (MoM) (Mar)
- 19:50 JPY Trade Balance (Apr)
- 20:30 AUD MI Leading Index (MoM)
- 21:30 AUD Construction Work Done (QoQ) (Q1)
- 21:30 JPY BOJ Board Member Harada Speaks
- 22:15 AUD RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
Wed May 22 2019
- 01:00 USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
- 03:30 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
- 04:30 GBP CPI (MoM) (Apr)
- 04:30 GBP House Price Index (YoY)
- 04:30 GBP PPI Input (MoM) (Apr)
- 04:30 GBP PPI Output (MoM) (Apr)
- 04:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Apr)
- 04:30 GBP Public Sector Net Cash Requirement (Apr)
- 05:30 EUR ECB’s Praet Speaks
- 05:40 EUR German 10-Year Bund Auction
- 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
- 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
- 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Market Index
- 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Refinance Index
- 08:30 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
- 08:30 CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
- 10:00 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
- 10:10 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks 1
- 0:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
- 14:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
- 19:00 AUD Manufacturing PMI
- 19:00 AUD Services PMI
- 19:50 JPY Foreign Bonds Buying
- 19:50 JPY Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks
- 20:00 SGD GDP (YoY) (Q2)
- 20:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI (May)
Thur May 23 2019
- 01:00 SGD CPI (YoY) (Apr)
- 02:00 EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
- 02:45 EUR French Business Survey (May)
- 03:15 EUR French Manufacturing PMI (May)
- 03:15 EUR French Markit Composite PMI (May)
- 03:15 EUR French Services PMI (May)
- 03:30 EUR German Composite PMI (May)
- 03:30 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (May)
- 03:30 EUR German Services PMI (May)
- 04:00 EUR German Business Expectations
- 04:00 EUR German Current Assessment
- 04:00 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index
- 04:00 EUR ECB Financial Stability Review
- 04:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI (May)
- 04:00 EUR Markit Composite PMI (May)
- 04:00 EUR Services PMI (May)
- 04:40 EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
- Tentative EUR European Parliament Elections
- 07:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
- 08:30 CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Mar)
- 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
- 09:45 USD Manufacturing PMI (May)
- 09:45 USD Markit Composite PMI
- 09:45 USD Services PMI (May)
- 10:00 USD New Home Sales (MoM) (Apr)
- 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
- 11:00 USD KC Fed Composite Index (May)
- 11:00 USD KC Fed Manufacturing Index (May)
- 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
- 12:00 EUR ECB’s Nowotny Speaks
- 13:00 USD 10-Year TIPS Auction
- 13:00 USD FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
- 13:00 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
- 13:00 USD FOMC Member Daly Speaks
- 13:00 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
- 18:45 NZD Trade Balance (MoM) (Apr)
- 19:30 JPY National Core CPI (YoY) (Apr)
- 19:30 JPY National CPI (YoY) (Apr)
- 19:30 JPY National CPI (MoM)
- 20:00 SGD GDP (YoY) (Q2)
- 20:00 SGD GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
Friday May 24, 2019
- 00:30 JPY All Industries Activity Index (MoM)
- 01:00 SGD Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr)
- 03:00 EUR Spanish PPI (YoY)
- 04:30 GBP Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
- 04:30 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
- 04:30 EUR ECB’s Nowotny Speaks
- Tentative EUR European Parliament Elections
- 05:15 GBP BoE Deputy Governor Woods Speaks
- 06:00 GBP CBI Distributive Trades Survey (May)
- 08:30 USD Cap Goods Ship Non Defense Ex Air (MoM)
- 8:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr)
- 08:30 CAD Corporate Profits (QoQ)
- 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Coun
- t15:30 USD CFTC speculative net positions
Notable Earnings Reports This Week
*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available
Monday May 20
- AZZ INC AZZ COMPUGEN LTD CGEN INTL GAME NEW IGT MICT INC MICT PINDUODUO INC PDD PUXIN LTD-ADR NEW QUIDAN INC QD SPARTAN NASH CO SPTN TARONIS TECH TRNX TATA MOTORS-ADR TTM
After Market Close
- 360 FINANCE-ADR QFIN ATENTO SA ATTO IPIC ENTERTNMNT IPIC LEGACY EDUCATN LEAI NORDSON CORP NDSN QUTOUTIAO INC QTT
Tuesday May 21
- AUTOZONE INC AZO CORPORACION SA CAAP DAQO NEW ENERGY DQ DYCOM INDS DY EATON VANCE EV ENDAVA PLC DAVA GOLAR LNG LTD GLNG GOLAR LNG PARTN GMLP HOME DEPOT HD ITURAN LOCATION ITRN KOHLS CORP KSS MAGAL SECURITY MAGS MEDIWOUND LTD MDWD MONRO MUFFLER MNRO PENNEY (JC) INC JCP SHIP FIN INTL SFL TJX COS INC NEW TJX X FINANCIAL-ADR XYF
- AMERICAS CAR-MT CRMT ARCO PLATFORM ARCE DEALNET CAPITAL DLS NORDSTROM INC JWN OOMA INC OOMA PURE STORAGE PSTG PYXIS TANKERS PXS SEA LTD-ADR SE SKYLINE CORP SKY TOLL BROTHERS TOL TRANSCAT INC TRNS URBAN OUTFITTER URBN
Wednesday May 22
- ADVANCE AUTO PT AAP AFFIMED N.V. AFMD ANALOG DEVICES ADI BAVARIAN NORDIC BVNRY CDN IMPL BK CM CDN IMPL BK-TS CM CNFINANCE HLDGS CNF CSW INDUSTRIALS CSWI EAGLE POINT CRD ECC GAZIT GLOBE LTD GZTGF GOLDEN OCEAN GP GOGL KLX ENERGY SVCS KLXE LOWES COS LOW OPERA LTD-ADR OPRA PHOTRONICS INC PLAB PROTECH HOME MD PTQ STEIN MART INC SMRT TARGET CORP TGT V F CORP VFC
COPART INC CPRT CTRIP.COM INTL CTRP EPLUS INC PLUS FANHUA INC FANH HUAZHU GROUP HTHT L BRANDS INC LB MODINE MANUFACT MOD NETAPP INC NTAP ORGANOVO HLDGS ONVO SHOE CARNIVAL SCVL SOC QUIMICA MIN SQM STAR BULK CARRS SBLK SYNOPSYS INC SNPS TARO PHARMA IND TARO UNIVL CORP -VA UVV VIPSHOP HOLDNGS VIPS
Thursday May 23
- ADV DRAINAG SYS WMS BEST BUY BBY BJS WHOLESALE BJ BRADY CORP CL A BRC CITI TRENDS INC CTRN DORIAN LPG LTD LPG HAMILTON THORNE HTL HEROUX-DEVTEK HRX HORMEL FOODS CP HRL MEDTRONIC MDT MOBILE TELE-ADR MBT POINTER TELOCAT PNTR RBC BEARINGS ROLL ROYAL BANK CDA RY SEADRILL LTD SDRL SEADRILL PTNRS SDLP SINA CORP SINA STAGE STORES SSI TEEKAY CORP TK TEEKAY LNG PTNR TGP TEEKAY TANKERS TNK TORO CO TTC TORONTO DOM BNK TD TUNIU CORP-ADR TOUR VIOMI TECHNOLGY VIOT WEIBO CORP ADS WB XINYUAN REAL ES XIN
- AUTODESK INC ADSK CAVCO INDUS INC CVCO DECKERS OUTDOOR DECK DXC TECHNOLOGY DXC EURODRY LTD EDRY HEWLETT PKD ENT HPE HP INC HPQ INTUIT INC INTU LEGEND PWR SYS LPS LIONS GATE ETMT LGF.A ROSS STORES ROST SILVERCORP METL SVM SPLUNK INC SPLK VIASAT INC VSAT
Friday May 24
- BUCKLE INC BKE DESTINATION XL DXLG FOOT LOCKER INC FL FUTU HOLDINGS FHL GREENTREE HOSPT GHG HIBBET SPORTS HIBB
- NATUZZI SPA-ADR NTZ
For More Earnings and estimates visit Morningstar Earnings Here
Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.