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FEAR NOT Brave Investors
POTUS, Chaos and Trade Wars
The Week That Was:
This week started with market tremors after POTUS said on Sunday, thats it I am putting 25% tarriffs on $250 billion of China imports because the Chinese had not acted good faith. We saw gap downs, denials and more volatilty. By weeks’s end we saw a 500 point swing in the Dow to close green AFTER tariffs were implemented on the hope future talks are fruitful. In other words after a week’s noise we got more tariffs and trade promises to look forward too. This is no accident, the constant panic selling and short covering keeps the market short term and taking out some of the froth.
This week’s volatilty shouldn’t have been a suprise with all the red flags; stumbling earnings, economic softspots, US political chaos, geopolitical chaos in Venezuela, Libya, Turkey, France and so many more. Does nothing else matter is this greed forsaken market. We have a POTUS claiming we have a great economy BUT must have another QE and rates cut 1 bp. VIX futures shorts had reached record highs, CFTC data shows, surpassing the build-up seen before last February’s “Volmageddon” blowup. To finish the week we had another IPO flop, the biggie this time, UBER, which ended it’s first day down 7.6% at $41.57, even as the S&P 500 reversed losses to end positive. Only about 20% of IPOs have ended their first day of trading in the red in the last two years, according to Dealogic data.
Oil seemed to be sidelined after it’s pullback from its lofty highs, were all the oil trader in Houston at the OTC?
This week should remind you to stay on your toes, ad nauseum we repeat; In this surreal world that market prices can only go up, with bizzare acceptance that we can’t go down and you are a fool if you think otherwise. We have had mixed economic data, no decision on the trade war, no decision on Brexit and earnings have been marked down a beat won’t be hard to beat and here we are (see what ya wanna see).
We did warn “The CBOE Volatility Index fell to another fresh seven-month low. There is NO Fear despite major nations in political chaos, including G-5 nations the US, France and the UK”
The Week Ahead
A big week for trade wars continues but we also have U.S. retail sales, industrial production, business inventories, Empire State manufacturing survey and Consumers sentiment. Key Economic reports out of Europe and China are out also.
Again the issue is the disconnect between the story telling about the China deal and inconclusion between the Tories and Labor in the UK. What could go wrong?
Keep an eye on IPO’s after the dismal reversal of Lyft’s IPO and the Uber (UBER) misstep.
It is now over two months since the latest trade deal between the United States with China deadline of March 1. The White house said it needs more time, then turned around and slapped more tariffs on and said hey we are still talking. . Are we the only one that sees the constant reset to keep markets elevated? If you have half a non partisan brain it should be all pretty clear the great game going on.
For emerging markets the high US dollar means the Fragile 5 continue to shake. Argentina and Turkey are red letter risks, 11 weeks of losses in the last 13 have the Turkish lira sliding back toward six to the dollar, the level that set caused panic last year. Voters will be going to the polls in Poland, Argentina, India and Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand this year. Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask?
If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.
Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have China and the U.S.trade wars.
Earnings last week included Allergan, Electronic Arts, Dropbox, Emerson Electric, Lyft, Occidental Petroleum, Marriott, Pioneer Natural Resources, Norwegian Cruise, Sonos, Tyson Foods, Viacom, Yelp and Zillow. This week we get Alibaba, Applied Materials, Cisco, Cyberark, Deere, iQiyi, Macy’s, Netease, NVidia, Pinterest, Ralph Lauren, Take-Two Interactive, Tilray and Walmart reporting
-comment section below data-
Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar
- Dude Where’s My Uber? A Story of Greed and Delusion or Opportunity?
- U.S. Takes off Another 2 Oil Rigs With Production Near Record Highs
- Canada Added More Jobs in April Than Any Month on Record
- Into The Vortex – EIA Reports +85 Bcf Natural Gas Storage Build
- U.S. Trade Deficit $50 Billion With Lower China Imports Again
- Around The Barrel – Crude Oil Draws 3963k bbl With Smaller Product Draws
- Spring Homebuying Season Sees Mortgage Applications Rise
- RBA Leaves Rate Unchanged With Further Spare Capacity in Australian Economy
The Week That Was – Last Weeks Recap
Earnings
- Sonos Beats Earnings and Launches Google Assistant Support
- Dropbox Earnings Beat as Paying Cloud and File Sharing Customers Rise
Stock Markets
Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*
Which Stocks Moved US ETF’s Last Week
US Stock Indices Performance
S&P 500
The $SPX momentum continued with a sharp thrust after the recent ATH after breaking the Tenkan we fell a fast 100 handles to hold the cloud and break up lovel for March. These are now support, we bounced back to the tenkan and +2/8 and the chikou. The question is what that an A Complete, ABC complete or a 4 of (i) – use your 240 for guidance there.
On the weekly we see the previous high fail near +2/8. Why we opined “well overbought signals, caution if long with target now met from the 1.618% downside extenstion break retention.” We had the fall but we spat back above the weekly Tenkan. Clearer here the wave alts we asked on the daily.
Apple $AAPL
Amazon $AMZN
Fixed Interest
10 Year Treasury Note
Energy and Commodities
US Crude Oil (WTI)
The daily WTi is a textbook in Ichimoku these last few weeks. reversed back inside the pennant and accelerated lower though the tenkan (orange) closing the week with a bounce off thr Kijun (pink) and lower pennant confluence. Then boom and through the Kijun to the channel and 50. Note the Adams theory in the last two spits. This week we have seen coiling between the 50dma and the Tenkan and channel.
WTI from the weekly cloud above the 50wma (green) and Kijun Sen (pink) to bring chikou back in balance (blue) . Tenkan remains support which we spat the week with the 50wma- watch Murrey confluence with cloud above.
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Natural Gas after holding the previous 100% or the 2017-18 low and -3/8 Murrey Math aclosed above the Kijun and 50 dma.With the Tenkan trying to go through the Kijun.
Natural Gas closed back over the prev 100% also the 2017-18 low and bounced. Upside resistance is heavy with Tenkan and previous breaks.
Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
Currency Markets
Australian Dollar AUDUSD
The Aussie dollar broke under the recent lows with the weekly Tenkan and Kijun sending it lower just under .70 cents l but again no impulse there. AUD stayed in the range of 1/8 to 3/8 Murrey Math. Elections ahead may get some volatility.
New Zealand Dollar – NZDUSD
The kiwi broke lower with the RBNZ but came back at the end of the week over the Tenkan with impulse. Above is the previous daily channel, key is the tenkan and the Murrey Math 4/8.
Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)
The Loonie used the energy from the tenkan (orange) on the downside and the Murray Math 3/8 to break the weekly pennant (white), from here tenkan and break points. The Kijun flattened at the Tenkan.
Euro (EURUSD)
The Euro Weekly remains in the channel and potential bull flag under the tenkan Again we now evaulate if the previous spit reversal after breaking the highlighted Fib was conclusive. If we do get a rally over Tenkan Adam’s Theory should apply.
EuroPound (EURGBP)
No real change for EURGBP. The channel that is Brexit closed over the Tenkan as the EURUSD component held the channel, back testing the chikou and lower band. With all the politics the channel remains valid for now.
Japanese Yen (USDJPY)
The dollar yen has been the leader for risk, geopolitical and market. The daily gives us a clearer look of what happened on the weekly after it spat the previous highs at a time when the USD index was making significant highs, divergence between the Yen and other currencies. Above us is tenkan tenkan(orange) which held and the effective double bottom from Mar/Dec 2018 is below under the daily cloud. The weekly cloud and pennant break (blue) the range.
Mexican Peso (USDMXN)
The Mexican peso contues to weaken, through the cloud, MXN weakened this week with the rest of the emerging markets closing near the tenkan in the USDMXN with the Daily 3/8 Murrey Math resistance.
Turkish Lire (USDTRY)
The Turkish Lire broke above the +2/8 Murrey Math and ran to 6.20 USDTRY before pulling back to 6 back the tenkan. The downside the Kijun and the 50. Was that a 3 or c completing after the 6 stop losses, the level that set caused panic last year?
Bitcoin
Bitcoinback through breakdown from Dec (red) above the pennant and the daily tenkan after flirting with 5-8 Murrey Math grid. Is this a C Wave playing out or something larger higher? Use your MM rules as the algos control the herd here with Tenkan and weekly highs your guides..
The Week Ahead
Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week
Mon May 13 2019
- All Day Holiday Hong Kong – The day following the Birthday of the Buddha
- 01:00 JPY Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Mar)
- 01:00 JPY Leading Index (MoM) (Mar)
- 03:00 AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
- 09:10 USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
- 09:10 USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
- 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
- 13:20 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
- 17:00 KRW Export Price Index (YoY) (Apr)
- 17:00 KRW Import Price Index (YoY) (Apr)
- 17:30 CAD BoC Gov Council Member Lane Speaks
- 19:50 JPY Current Account
- 19:50 JPY Bank Lending (YoY) (Apr)
- 20:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (May)
- 21:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence (Apr)
- 21:30 AUD NAB Business Survey (Apr)
- 23:35 JPY 30-Year JGB Auction
Tues May 14 2019
- 01:00 JPY Economy Watchers Current Index (Apr)
- 02:00 EUR German CPI (MoM) (Apr)
- 02:30 CHF PPI (MoM) (Apr)
- 03:00 EUR Spanish CPI (MoM) (Apr)
- 03:15 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
- 04:30 GBP Average Earnings
- 04:30 GBP Claimant Count Change (Apr)
- 04:30 GBP Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM)
- 04:30 GBP Unemployment Rate (Mar)
- 05:00 EUR German ZEW Current Conditions (May)
- 05:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (May)
- 05:00 EUR Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)
- 05:00 EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment
- 06:00 USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (Apr)
- 07:00 USD OPEC Monthly Report
- 08:30 USD Export Price Index (MoM) (Apr)
- 08:30 USD Import Price Index (MoM) (Apr)
- 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM)
- 12:45 USD FOMC Member George Speaks
- 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
- 18:00 USD FOMC Member Daly Speaks
- 20:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (May)
- 21:30 AUD Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q1)
- 22:00 CNY Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Apr)
- 22:00 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Apr)
- 22:00 CNY Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr)
- 22:00 CNY Chinese Unemployment Rate
Wed May 15 2019
- JPY Construction Orders (YoY) (Mar)
- 01:00 JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (Apr)
- 02:00 EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
- 02:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY)
- 02:45 EUR French CPI (MoM) (Apr)
- 04:00 USD IEA Monthly Report
- 04:00 EUR Italian Industrial New Orders (MoM)
- 04:00 EUR Italian Industrial Sales (MoM) (Mar)
- 05:00 EUR Employment Change (QoQ)
- 05:00 EUR GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 05:40 EUR German 30-Year Bund Auction
- 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
- 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
- 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Market Index
- 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Refinance Index
- 08:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
- 08:30 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (May)
- 08:30 CAD CPI (MoM) (Apr)
- 09:15 USD Capacity Utilization Rate (Apr)
- 09:15 USD Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr)
- 09:30 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
- 10:00 USD Business Inventories (MoM) (Mar)
- Tentative USD MBA Delinquency Rates (QoQ)
- 10:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index (May)
- 10:15 EUR ECB’s Coeure Speaks
- 10:30 USD EIA Crude Oil Inventories
- 12:00 USD FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
- 12:30 EUR ECB’s Praet Speaks
- 16:00 USD US Foreign Buying, T-bonds (Mar)
- 16:00 USD Overall Net Capital Flow (Mar)
- 16:00 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Mar)
- 16:00 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions including Swaps (Mar)
- 19:50 JPY PPI (MoM) (Apr)
- 21:00 AUD MI Inflation Expectations
- 21:30 AUD Employment Change (Apr)
- 21:30 AUD Unemployment Rate (Apr)
- 21:30 CNY House Prices (YoY) (Apr)
- 22:45 AUD RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speaks
Thur May 16 2019
- 03:30 EUR ECB’s Praet Speaks
- 04:00 EUR Italian CPI (MoM) (Apr)
- 04:15 EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
- 05:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance (Mar)
- 05:00 EUR Trade Balance (Mar)
- Tentative EUR Eurogroup Meetings
- 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
- 08:30 USD Building Permits (MoM) (Apr)
- 08:30 USD Housing Starts (MoM) (Apr)
- 08:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May)
- 08:30 CAD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
- 08:30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases (Mar)
- 08:30 CAD Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Mar)
- 08:30 EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
- 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
- 10:30 CAD BoC Financial System Review
- 11:15 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
- 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
- 12:05 USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
- 12:15 USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
- 13:30 GBP MPC Member Haskel Speaks
- 14:00 EUR ECB’s Coeure Speaks
- Tentative USD Treasury Department Report
- 18:30 NZD Business NZ PMI (Apr)
- 18:45 NZD PPI Input (QoQ) (Q1)
- 18:45 NZD PPI Output (QoQ) (Q1)
- 20:30 SGD Non-Oil Exports (MoM) (Apr)
- 20:30 SGD Trade Balance
Friday May 17, 2019
- 00:30 JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM)
- 02:00 EUR German WPI (MoM) (Apr)
- 04:30 HKD GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
- 05:00 EUR CPI (MoM) (Apr)
- Tentative EUR EU Finance Ministers Meeting
- 10:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May)
- 11:15 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
- 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Rig Count
- 13:40 USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
- 14:00 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
- 15:30 USD CFTC speculative net positions
Notable Earnings Reports This Week
*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available
Monday May 13
Before Open
- CATALYST PHARMA CPRX CONSOLTD WATER CWCO ENSIGN EGY SVCS ESI GEODRILL LTD GEO MAV BEAUTY BRND MAV NATIONAL ENERGY NESR PREMIUM BRND-TS PBH UNUM THERAPTICS UMRX XUNLEI LTD-ADR XNET ACERINOX SA ADR ANIOY
After Market Close
- CAPRICOR THERAP CAPR CORMEDIX INC CRMD DIAMEDICA THERA DMAC FAMOUS DAVES DAVE FUEL TECH INC FTEK IMMERSION CORP IMMR LEGG MASON INC LM PACIFIC DRILLNG PACD RA MEDICAL SYST RMED SIERRA METALS SMTS SUPREME CANNABS FIR TAKE-TWO INTER TTWO TENCENT MUS-ADR TME
Tuesday May 14
Before Open
- AUTOLUS THERAPT AUTL BIOLINE RX LTD BLRX CATABASIS PHARM CATB CYBER-ARK SFTWR CYBR HYDROGENICS CP HYGS INSPIREMD INC NSPR MATINAS BIOPHAR MTNB MIX TELEMATICS MIXT ONCONOVA THERAP ONTX PERSHING SQUARE PSHZF RALPH LAUREN CP RL SUPERIOR GOLD SGI TAKEDA PHARMACT TAK XCEL BRANDS INC XELB
After Close
- 8X8 INC EGHT AGILENT TECH A AMDOCS LTD DOX AURORA CANNABIS ACB CONTAINER STORE TCS CYCLACEL PHARMA CYCC DARE BIOSCIENCE DARE FORTUNA SILVER FSM ONCOCYTE CORP OCX TILRAY INC TLRY TRACON PHARMACT TCON YOGAWORKS INC YOGA
Wednesday May 15
Before Open
- ALIBABA GROUP BABA CHILDRENS PLACE PLCE INMED PHARMACT IN MACYS INC M RUBIUS THERAPTC RUBY TOWER SEMICOND TSEM UQM TECH INC UQM VASCULAR BIOGNC VBLT
After Close
- CAPSTONE CO INC CAPC CISCO SYSTEMS CSCO FLOWERS FOODS FLO GREAT PANTHER GPL JACK IN THE BOX JACK NETEASE INC NTES PAYMENT DATA SY PYDS SECOND SIGHT MD EYES VIRTUSA CORP VRTU
Thursday May 16
Before Open
- ATS AUTOMATION ATA BOXLIGHT CORP BOXL KEMET CORP KEM A MAGIC SOFTWARE MGIC MANCHESTER UTD MANU QIWI PLC-ADR QIWI WALMART INC WMT WIX.COM LTD WIX ZEALAND PHARMA ZEAL
After Close
- 21VIANET GP-ADR VNET AGILYSYS INC AGYS APPLD MATLS INC AMAT BAIDU INC BIDU IQIYI INC-ADR IQ LATAM AIRLINES LTM NVIDIA CORP NVDA PINTEREST INC PINS VOXELJET AG-ADR VJET
Friday May 17
Before Open
- CAE INC CAE DEERE & CO DE DOCTOR REDDYS RDY
After Close
- Nil
For More Earnings and estimates visit Morningstar Earnings Here
Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.
Trade Smart!