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FEAR NOT Brave Investors
China National Congress, ECB and US Jobs Report
The Week That Was:
Another week of chaos in both the US and abroad, we had POTUS abandoning the summit with North Korea’s Kim after the Koreans wouldn’t commit to denuclearisation BEFORE sanctions lifted, yet in to many it was a failed summit. That is the world we live in, the partisan nature calling a rational decision a fail so all could hear. Then we have the Cohen testimony charade, which has made everyone look rather pathetic ,and really didn’t America already know Trump was a New York property developer. Meanwhile we had India and Pakistan, both have nukes mind you, itching for more than cricket but to at least half of America a lawyer who betrayed his nation. profession, family and client is more important, how self indulgent are we?
Then we have Brexit, oh my, UK Prime Minister May signaled readiness to allow Brexit to be delayed a few months beyond the March 29 deadline to ensure Britain doesn’t crash out of the EU without a trade deal. A “meaningful” vote on the arrangement she negotiated with Brussels will be held by March 12 in parliament. UK opposition leader Corbyn has backed holding another referendum, the first time he has endorsed giving voters a chance to change their mind aking no-deal Brexit looking less likely
We also noticed that this was the first inflows of stockmarket money since the great dump, a rush to risk-on, or just regular 401k buy ins? The Fed, which seems oblivious to risk gave more mixed signals, read Bostic’s comments to see how much there is no direction in thought. Economically the month’s PMI’s were not pretty, other than the ISM Chicago PMI, so not all is bad, the shutdown delayed US advance Q4 GDP which was better than expected but doesn’t gel with Markit and other numbers, so expect a downgrade there.
Oil whipped around all week as bulls fought bad economics and Trump and SPR affects. Remember people what you are trading, what Midland, WTI and Brent contracts represent for starters. We had ANOTHER all time high in US crude production report as Exxon, Chevron, Halliburton and Schlumberger all pointed to, higher production. Rigs did come off in the Permian, as shale companies had said would in their earnings reports. We saw more Russian cracks are appearing. More talk that Chinese shadow banking is less risky and under a control, okay then.
The Week Ahead
Markets will look to China again with their National People’s Congress on March 5, will they introduce more growth boosting measures such as tax cuts, alongside laws banning forced technology transfer and government “interference” in foreign business practices, which would assist in the intellectual property theft segment of the US trade deal. China will also reports it’s latest trade numbers, and the impact the trade war has had.
Much focus will be on Europe this week with the prospect of another round of euro zone stimulus to be touted ahead of the ECB’s March 7 meeting, in the line of fire are European banks and Italian government bonds. The ECB will release economic projections, a day after the OECD with downward revisions expected while Germany is struggling and Italy is in recession.
The February employment report is due on Friday March 8, and will no doubt get more Federal Reserve doublespeak on rate flexibility. The U.S. economy continues to add jobs while inflation remains very low. We added 304,000 non-farm payrolls last month BUT average hourly earnings rose a meagre 0.1 percent, the slowest rise since October 2017.
Repetitive I know but emerging markets have bounced with everything else since December and it’s not just the the Fragile 5 that we should keep an eye on. Presidential elections are scheduled in Ukraine on March 31 with local elections in Turkey also scheduled that day. South Africa has Presidential elections on May 8. Voters will be going to the polls in Poland, Argentina, India and Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand this year. Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask?
If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.
Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have China and the U.S.trade wars.
Earnings last week included Shake Shack, Range Resources, Keane Group, Carrizo, Etsy, Home Depot, Bank of Montreal, Chenier, Macy’s, Sempra Energy, EOG Resources, Whiting Petroleum, Lowe’s, Chesapeake Energy, Best Buy, Rowan Cos, Apache, Campbell Soup,Petrobras. Square, Box, PG&E, Toronto-Dominion, Canadian Imperial Bank, JD.com, Nordstrom, Workday and Autodesk.
The week ahead’s earnings include Burlington Stores, Costco, Dollar Tree, Kohl’s, Kroger, Ross Stores, Salesforce.com, Target, Thor Industries and Urban Outfitters
-comment section below data-
Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar
Last Week’s Big Stories
- U.S. Oil Rigs Fall 10, 7 in Permian As Crude Production Hits Another Record
- EIA Reports Draw of 166 Bcf in Natural Gas Storage
- US Advance Estimates Q4 GDP 2.6%, Higher Than Expected
- China Purchasing Manager Indices Worsen, Highlight Trade War Debt
- EIA Reports Huge Crude Oil Draw as Production Hits Another Record High
The Week That Was – Last Weeks Recap
Earnings
- Apache Earnings Beat As Permian Production Hits Record High
- Whiting Petroleum Turns To Loss With Rising Oil Differentials
- Matador Resources Reports Record Production, Divesting Non Core Assets
- EOG Resources Earnings Miss With Lower Prices Despite Revenue Beat
- Sempra Energy Earnings Beat On Top and Bottom Lines
- Cheniere Energy Announce Record LNG Revenue in 2018
- Carrizo Oil and Gas Revenue Rises With Delaware Basin Production up 96% in 2018
- Keane Group Earnings Improve With Fracking Fleet Profitability
Stock Markets
Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*
Which Stocks Moved US ETF’s Last Week
US Stock Indices Performance
S&P 500
Apple $AAPL
Amazon $AMZN
Fixed Interest
10 Year Treasury Note
Energy and Commodities
US Crude Oil (WTI)
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
Currency Markets
Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)
New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)
Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)
Euro (EURUSD)
EuroPound (EURGBP)
Japanese Yen (USDJPY)
Mexican Peso (USDMXN)
Turkish Lire (USDTRY)
Bitcoin
The Week Ahead
Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week
Mon Mar 4 2019
- All Day Holiday Brazil – Carnival
- All Day Holiday India – Mahasivarathri Day
- 03:00 EUR Spanish Unemployment Change
- 04:30 GBP Construction PMI (Feb)
- 04:30 EUR Sentix Investor Confidence (Mar)
- 05:00 EUR PPI (MoM) (Jan)
- 08:00 SGD Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
- 09:45 USD ISM – NY Business Conditions (Feb)
- 10:00 USD Construction Spending (MoM) (Dec)
- 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
- 16:30 AUD AIG Services Index (Feb)
- 17:00 AUD Services PMI
- 18:00 KRW GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
- 19:00 NZD ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM)
- 19:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Feb)
- 19:30 AUD Current Account (Q4)
- 19:30 AUD Net Exports Contribution (Q4)
- 19:30 HKD Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
- 20:45 CNY Caixin Services PMI (Feb)
- 22:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (Mar) 1
- 22:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
- 22:35 JPY 10-Year JGB Auction
Tues Mar 5 2019
- All Day Holiday Brazil – Carnival
- 02:30 CHF CPI (MoM) (Feb)
- 03:15 EUR Spanish Services PMI (Feb)
- 03:45 EUR Italian Services PMI (Feb)
- 03:50 EUR French Markit Composite PMI (Feb)
- 03:50 EUR French Services PMI (Feb)
- 03:55 EUR German Composite PMI (Feb)
- 03:55 EUR German Services PMI (Feb)
- 04:00 EUR Italian GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
- 04:00 EUR Spanish Consumer Confidence
- 04:00 EUR Markit Composite PMI (Feb)
- 04:00 EUR Services PMI (Feb)
- 04:30 GBP Services PMI (Feb)
- 05:00 EUR Retail Sales
- 06:00 USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (Feb)
- 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM)
- Tentative NZD GlobalDairyTrade Price Index
- 09:45 USD Markit Composite PMI (Feb)
- 09:45 USD Services PMI (Feb)
- Tentative USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
- 10:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
- 10:00 USD New Home Sales (Dec)
- 10:00 CAD Ivey PMI (Feb)
- 14:00 USD Federal Budget Balance (Jan)
- 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
- 17:10 AUD RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
- 19:30 AUD GDP (YoY) (Q4)
- 20:30 JPY BOJ Board Member Harada
Wed Mar 6 2019
- 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
- 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
- 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
- 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index
- 08:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb)
- 08:30 USD Trade Balance (Dec)
- 08:30 CAD Labor Productivity (QoQ) (Q4)
- 08:30 CAD Trade Balance (Dec)
- 10:00 CAD BoC Rate Statement
- 10:00 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision
- 10:00 CAD Ivey PMI (Feb) 54.7
- 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
- 12:00 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
- 14:00 USD Beige Book
- 16:30 AUD AIG Construction Index (Feb)
- 19:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance (Feb)
- 19:30 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
- 19:30 AUD Trade Balance (Jan)
- 22:35 JPY 30-Year JGB Auction
Thur Mar 7 2019
- 00:00 JPY Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Jan)
- 00:00 JPY Leading Index
- 01:45 CHF Unemployment Rate (Feb)
- 03:00 CNY FX Reserves (USD)
- 03:30 GBP Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Feb)
- 04:00 EUR Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
- 05:00 EUR Employment Change (QoQ) (Q4)
- 05:00 EUR GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
- 07:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts (Feb)
- 07:45 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Mar)
- 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg
- 08:30 USD Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q4)
- 08:30 USD Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q4)
- 08:30 CAD Building Permits (MoM) (Jan)
- 08:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
- 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
- 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
- 15:00 USD Consumer Credit (Jan) 1
- 18:30 JPY Household Spending (MoM) (Jan)
- 18:50 JPY Current Account n.s.a. (Jan)
- 18:50 JPY GDP (YoY) (Q4)
Fri Mar 8 2019
- All Day Holiday Russia – Women’s Day
- 00:00 JPY Economy Watchers Current Index (Feb)
- 02:00 EUR German Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan)
- 02:45 EUR French Current Account (Jan)
- 02:45 EUR French Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan)
- 02:45 EUR French Trade Balance (Jan)
- 03:00 EUR Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) (Jan)
- 04:00 EUR Italian Industrial Production (YoY) (Jan)
- 04:30 GBP Inflation Expectations
- 05:00 EUR Italian PPI (MoM) (Jan)
- 08:15 CAD Housing Starts (Feb)
- 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Feb)
- 08:30 USD Average Weekly Hours (Feb)
- 08:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)
- 08:30 USD Participation Rate (Feb)
- 08:30 USD U6 Unemployment Rate (Feb)
- 08:30 USD Unemployment Rate (Feb)
- 08:30 USD Building Permits (Jan)
- 08:30 USD Housing Starts (Jan)
- 08:30 CAD Capacity Utilization Rate (Q4)
- 08:30 CAD Employment Change (Feb)
- 08:30 CAD Unemployment Rate (Feb)
- 10:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Jan)
- 10:40 CNY Trade Balance (USD) (Feb)
- 12:00 USD WASDE Report
- 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Rig Count
- 15:30 CFTC speculative net positions
- 20:30 CNY CPI (MoM) (Feb)
- 20:30 CNY PPI (YoY) (Feb)
Notable Earnings Reports This Week
*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available
Monday Mar 4
Before Open
- BIOCRYST PHARMA BCRX GEODRILL LTD GEO INTER PARFUMS IPAR LUNA INNOVATION LUNA MAGIC SOFTWARE MGIC SLATE OFFC REIT SOT SPARK ENERGY SPKE
After Market Close
- 21VIANET GP-ADR VNET ADAMAS PHARMA ADMS ADDUS HOMECARE ADUS CLARUS CORP CLAR CTRIP.COM INTL CTRP FAMOUS DAVES DAVE GIBSON ENERGY GEI SALESFORCE.COM CRM SANDRIDGE ENRGY SD STERLING CONSTR STRL After Market Close
Tuesday Mar 5
Before Open
- CHIMERIX INC CMRX CIENA CORP CIEN GLOBAL SHIP LS GSL GMS INC GMS GOODRICH PET CP GDP KOHLS CORP KSS NEURONETICS INC STIM SINA CORP SINA TARGET CORP TGT TURNING PT BRND TPB WEIBO CORP ADS WB WILEY (JOHN) A JW.A
After Close
- AMBARELLA INC AMBA AXONICS MODULTN AXNX BIOLASE TECH BIOL CARDLYTICS INC CDLX CLEAR CHANL OUT CCO COOPER COS COO EAGLE BULK SHPG EGLE HORIZON TECHNOL HRZN INNERWORKINGS INWK KURA ONCOLOGY KURA MICROVISION INC MVIS RENEWABLE ENERG REGI ROSS STORES ROST URBAN OUTFITTER URBN UTD NATURAL FDS UNFI VIVINT SOLAR VSLR
Wednesday Mar 6
Before Open
- ABERCROMBIE ANF BJS WHOLESALE BJ BROWN FORMAN B BF.B CHICOS FAS INC CHS DOLLAR TREE INC DLTR DONALDSON CO DCI J JILL INC JILL MEET GROUP INC MEET STARS GROUP INC TSG THOR INDS INC THO VERTEX ENERGY VTNR
After Close
- AMER EAGLE OUTF AEO AROTECH CORP ARTX BALLARD PWR SYS BLDP BERRY PETE CP BRY CRAFT BREW ALLN BREW DESCARTES SYS DSGX FLOTEK INDU INC FTK GUIDEWIRE SFTWR GWRE PURE BIOSCIENCE PURE QUINTANA ENERGY QES TRECORA RESRCS TREC VAALCO ENERGY EGY
Thursday Mar 7
Before Open
- BARNES & NOBLE BKS BLOCK H & R HRB BURLINGTON STRS BURL CARE.COM INC CRCM CDN NTRL RSRCS CNQ FUELCELL ENERGY FCEL GNC HOLDINGS GNC INTL GAME NEW IGT KROGER CO KR MCCLATCHY CO-A MNI STAGE STORES SSI STRATASYS LTD SSYS TECH DATA CORP TECD TECNOGLASS INC TGLS ULTRA PETRO COR UPL
After Close
- ACELRX PHARMACT ACRX AM OUTDOOR BRND AOBC AUTOWEB INC AUTO CHUYS HOLDINGS CHUY COSTCO WHOLE CP COST EL POLLO LOCO LOCO ENERGY RECOVERY ERII EVENTBRITE INC EB IDT CORP-CL B IDT MARVELL TECH GP MRVL PRGX GLOBAL INC PRGX
Friday Mar 8
Before Open
- ALLOGENE THERPS ALLO ELOXX PHARMACT ELOX MEG ENERGY CORP MEG NAVISTAR INTL NAV PLX PHARMA INC PLXP TOTAL ENRGY SVC TOT TRANSPORTADORA TGS VAIL RESORTS MTN
After Close
- PFB CORP PFB
For More Earnings and estimates visit Morningstar Earnings Here
Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.
Trade Smart!