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FEAR NOT Brave Investors
Fed, BREXIT and Housing
The Week That Was:
Despite the negative themes that hovered over global markets this week the stockmarkets shrugging off two Boeing planes falling out of the sky, to get a a 5 second $10 dollar rip on reports it was a software glitch. $BA has lost almost $28 billion, or 13 percent since the March 10 Ethiopian Airlines’ crash. Its shares hit record highs just a week before the crash, up a jawdropping 52 percent since the end of December. That there sums up 2019 equities, the only fear is FOMO. The so called Powell Put and POTUS obsession with the Dow has put us in the Twilight zone with risk reward. The S&P 400 Mid-Cap index has surged to its best start to a year since 1991. Even the Leprechuans on St Patrick’s Day would blink at this.
Markets continue to discount the abject failure, morose earnings and data swallowed by swelling debt. The SPX sits over 2800 and WTI over $57 despite waiver extensions, Citgo sanction reversal and OPEC lowering demand and increasing supply estimates.
Brexit continues to highlight the ineptitude of leadership and disregard of voters wishes, that UK Parliment March 29 deadline to leave the EU is upon us.
The Week Ahead
After the huge miss on US jobs we focus on incoming data, which was a mix last week, we will continue in that vein but be aware the risk markets are in full no fear all FOMO mode. The Federal Reserve meets on Tuesday and Wednesday with money markets building in some easing in 2020. Housing is much what the Fed and successive U.S. administrations base American success on given its multiplier effect and we are entering the strongest time of the year for home sales. From here there is going to be a lot of attention, and hope placed on housing data as a gauge of economic growth. On Monday we get the NAHB Housing Market Index. Over in Europe we get another Brexit vote plus eurozone flash March PMI’s.
Despite bankers chasing fees and sating egos ermerging markets continue to flutterafter the with Argentina’s Peso hit a record low last week, rocking the Turkish Lire with it. As we preach every week it’s not just the Fragile 5 that we should keep an eye on. Presidential elections are scheduled in Ukraine on March 31 with local elections in Turkey also scheduled that day. South Africa has Presidential elections on May 8. Voters will be going to the polls in Poland, Argentina, India and Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand this year. Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask?
If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.
Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have China and the U.S.trade wars.
Earnings last week included Adidas, Adobe, Azul, Broadcom, Casey’s General, Cloudera, Dollar General, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Domo, Coupa Software, Embraer, Jabil Circuit, Momo, Oracle,Tribune Publishing, Ulta Beauty, Volkswagen, ZTO and Zumiez.
Ahead this week we have Darden Restaurants, FedEx, Five Below, Lumber Liquidators, Micron Technology, Nike, Tiffany and Tilray.
-comment section below data-
Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar
- U.S. Oil Rigs Fall Just 1 With Crude Production Off Record High
- Into The Vortex – EIA Reports Draw of -204 Bcf in Natural Gas Storage
- OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report March 2019
- Around The Barrel – Crude Oil and Gasoline Storage Draws
- Consumer Price Inflation Remains Subdued as Real Hourly Wages Rise
- China Producer Inflation Low Reflecting Weak Demand
The Week That Was – Last Weeks Recap
Earnings
Stock Markets
Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*
Which Stocks Moved US ETF’s Last Week
US Stock Indices Performance
S&P 500
With all the noise $SPX got back into the weekly cloud and held. On the daily we can see the Kijun-Sen spat with accelerating momentum and reversed back over the tenkan over the 8/8 MurreyMath and chikou
Apple $AAPL
Amazon $AMZN
Fixed Interest
10 Year Treasury Note
Energy and Commodities
US Crude Oil (WTI)
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
Currency Markets
Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)
The Aussie Weekly closer up we see the shelf clearly o/t the fall to 67 on the $AAPL warning has held despite all the bearish news, Range is 1/8 to 3/8 Murrey MAth until proven otherwise.
New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)
The kiwi was been in the Weekly Cloud for a few week’s now, it would need to break out from that to move from the sideways action. After the terrorist attack in Christchurch many players are sidelined
Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)
Euro (EURUSD)
The Euro Weekly Tenkan spit reversed after breaking the highlighted Fib and twice come back into the channel. If we do get a rally over Tenkan Adam’s Theory should apply.
EuroPound (EURGBP)
Japanese Yen (USDJPY)
With that same $AAPL warning sell where risk off rushed to Yen we have sincer seen $USDJPY rally which is now an effective double bottom from Mar/Dec 2018. The weekly cloud and pennant break (blue) the range,
Mexican Peso (USDMXN)
Turkish Lire (USDTRY)
Movement in Emerging Markets again after the Argentina Peso $USDARS hit a record low against the dollar to close at 42.5 pesos 2 weeks ago With the $USDTRY breaking and retesting but locked between the 4/8 and daily cloud with Tenkan and 50 supporting for now. Local elections scheduled on March 31 in Turkey and USD strength be alert
Bitcoin
The Week Ahead
Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week
Mon Mar 18 2019
- 00:30 JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (Jan)
- 00:30 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan)
- 06:00 EUR Trade Balance (Jan)
- 07:00 EUR German Buba Monthly Report
- 08:30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases (Jan)
- 09:15 EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
- 10:00 USD Cap Goods Ship Non Defense Ex Air (MoM)
- 10:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index (Mar)
- 11:10 EUR ECB’s Praet Speaks
- 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
- 17:00 NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Q1)
- 18:00 AUD RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks
- 20:30 AUD House Price Index (QoQ) (Q4)
- 20:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Tues Mar 19 2019
- 03:00 CHF Trade Balance (Feb)
- 04:30 HKD Unemployment Rate (Feb)
- 05:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance (Jan)
- 05:30 GBP Average Earnings ex Bonus (Jan)
- 05:30 GBP Claimant Count Change (Feb)
- 05:30 GBP Unemployment Rate (Jan)
- 05:35 EUR ECB’s Praet Speaks
- 06:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar)
- 06:00 EUR Wages in euro zone (YoY) (Q4)
- 06:00 EUR Labor Cost Index (YoY) (Q4)
- 06:00 EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment
- 08:55 USD Redbook (YoY)
- 10:00 USD Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan)
- Tentative NZD GlobalDairyTrade Price Index
- 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
- 17:45 NZD Current Account (YoY) (Q4)
- 19:00 JPY Reuters Tankan Index (Mar)
- 19:30 AUD MI Leading Index (MoM)
- 19:50 JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
- 20:00 AUD RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speaks
Wed Mar 20 2019
- 01:00 JPY Leading Index
- 02:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY)
- 03:00 EUR German PPI (YoY) (Feb)
- Tentative ZAR SARB Quarterly Bulletin
- 05:30 GBP Core CPI (YoY) (Feb)
- 05:30 GBP Core PPI Output (YoY)
- 05:30 GBP House Price Index (YoY)
- 05:30 GBP RPI (MoM) (Feb)
- 07:00 GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Mar)
- 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
- 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
- 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
- 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index
- 10:00 CHF SNB Quarterly Bulletin
- 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
- 14:00 USD FOMC Economic Projections
- 14:00 USD FOMC Statement
- 14:00 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
- 14:30 USD FOMC Press Conference
- 17:45 NZD GDP (QoQ)
- 20:30 AUD Employment Change
- 20:30 AUD RBA Bulletin
- 20:30 AUD Unemployment Rate (Feb)
- 22:00 NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY)
Thur Mar 21 2019
- All Day Holiday Japan – Vernal Equinox
- All Day Holiday India – Holi
- All Day Holiday South Africa – Human Rights Day
- 04:30 CHF SNB Interest Rate Decision
- 04:30 CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
- 05:00 CHF SNB Press Conference
- 05:00 EUR Spanish Trade Balance
- 05:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
- 05:30 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
- Tentative EUR EU Leaders Summit
- 08:00 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision (Mar)
- 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
- 08:30 USD Current Account (Q4)
- 08:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar)
- 08:30 CAD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
- 08:30 CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Jan)
- 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
- 11:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (Mar)
- 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
- 13:00 USD 10-Year TIPS Auction
- 18:00 AUD Manufacturing PMI
- 18:00 AUD Services PMI
- 19:30 JPY National CPI (MoM)
- 19:50 JPY Foreign Bonds Buying
- 19:50 JPY Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks
- 20:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
Friday, March 22, 2019
- 04:15 EUR French Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
- 04:15 EUR French Markit Composite PMI (Mar)
- 04:15 EUR French Services PMI (Mar)
- 04:15 EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
- 04:30 EUR German Composite PMI (Mar)
- 04:30 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
- 04:30 EUR German Services PMI (Mar)
- 04:30 EUR ECB’s Angeloni Speaks
- 05:00 EUR Current Account (Jan)
- 05:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
- 05:00 EUR Markit Composite PMI (Mar)
- 05:00 EUR Services PMI (Mar)
- 05:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Feb)
- Tentative EUR EU Leaders Summit
- 06:15 EUR ECB’s Mersch Speaks
- 08:00 GBP BoE Quarterly Bulletin
- 08:30 CAD CPI (MoM) (Feb)
- 08:30 CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
- 09:30 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
- 09:45 USD Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
- 09:45 USD Services PMI (Mar)
- 10:00 USD Existing Home Sales (Feb)
- 10:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Jan)
- 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Rig Count
- 14:00 USD Federal Budget Balance (Feb)
- 15:30 USD CFTC speculative net positions
Notable Earnings Reports This Week
*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available
Monday Mar 18
Before Open
- ACLARIS THERAPT ACRS CELLCOM ISRAEL CEL CYPRESS EGY PTR CELP FOSTER LB CO FSTR GENESIS HLTHCR GEN HORIZON GLBL CP HZN LUMBER LIQUIDAT LL NOVAVAX INC NVAX OVERSTOCK.COM OSTK PROTALIX BIOTHR PLX TELIGENT INC TLGT
After Market Close
- AKEBIA THERAP AKBA CATALYST PHARMA CPRX DEL TACO RSTRNT TACO HEALTHEQUITY HQY ICAD INC ICAD STONECO LTD STNE TILRAY INC TLRY
Tuesday Mar 19
Before Open
- ALIMENT COU-NEW ATD BITAUTO HOLDNGS BITA DSW INC CL-A DSW ELBIT SYSTEMS ESLT HD SUPPLY HLDGS HDS MICHAELS COS MIK NEW LOOK VISION BCI X FINANCIAL-ADR XYF
After Close
- AAR CORP AIR ARCO PLATFORM ARCE ATENTO SA ATTO AURINIA PHARMA AUP FEDEX CORP FDX PROVENTION BIO PRVB ROMACO RESOURCS METC SMARTSHEET INC SMAR STEELCASE INC SCS TENCENT MUS-ADR TME WESTPORT FUEL WPRT
Wednesday Mar 20
Before Open
- 360 FINANCE-ADR QFIN GAZIT GLOBE LTD GZTGF GENL MILLS GIS INNATE PHARMA IPHYF MTBC INC MTBC PINTEC TECH HLD RADA ELECTRONIC STRONGCO CORP SQP
After Close
- DIRTT ENVIRNMNT DRT GUESS INC GES HERMAN MILLER MLHR INFORMATION SVC ISV MICRON TECH MU MOSAIC CAP CP M MOUNTAIN PRV MPVD NTN BUZZTIME NTN QAD INC-A QADA RAVEN INDS INC RAVN WHEATON PRC MTL WPM WILLIAMS-SONOMA WSM WORTHINGTON IND WOR
Thursday Mar 21
Before Open
ACTUANT CORP ATU CANADIAN SOLAR CSIQ COMMERCIAL METL CMC CONAGRA BRANDS CAG DARDEN RESTRNT DRI HEIDELBERGCEMNT HDELY HLS THERAPEUTCS HLS LANDS END INC LE LAZYDAYS HLDGS LAZY PHOTON CONTROL PHO SUPERCOND TECH SCON POXEL SA FRANCE PXXLF
After Close
- AUTO PROP REIT APR AVEDRO INC AVDR CALERES INC CAL CANACOL ENERGY CNNEF COREPOINT LODGE CPLG INTELLICHECK MO IDN NEOVASC INC NVC NIKE INC-B NKE WIDEPOINT CORP WYY ZUORA INC ZUO
Friday Mar 22
Before Open
- BRP INC DOOO DESTINATION XL DXLG FIERA CAP CORP FSZ HIBBET SPORTS HIBB IMV INC IMV JINKOSOLAR HLDG JKS SUNLANDS ONLINE STG TIFFANY & CO TIF
After Close
- Nil
For More Earnings and estimates visit Morningstar Earnings Here
Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.
Trade Smart!