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FEAR NOT Brave Investors
Economy, BREXIT and Emerging Markets
The Week That Was:
Negative themes hovered over global markets this week with the ECB effectively admitting to the folly of QE and negative rates bringing elusive growth, expect some honesty here from the Fed in time. The RBA and BoC voiced similar views and over in China exports collapsed, while at the same time the U.S. announced 2018 was the largest trade deficit in 10 years. Markets continue to discount the abject failure, morose earnings and data swallowed by swelling debt. The SPX sits ovr 2700 and WTi over $55.
Then we have Brexit, oh my, a potential 3 votes ahead in UK Parliment ahead of the March 29 deadline to ensure Britain doesn’t crash out of the EU without a trade deal. A “meaningful” vote on the arrangement she negotiated with Brussels will be held by March 12 in parliament.
The huge miss on US jobs has us focused on incoming data, and an eye to revisions of the US advance Q4 GDP which was better than expected but doesn’t gel with Markit and other numbers, so expect a downgrade there.
Oil continues to be shale v KSA with Exxon raising its Shale output targets by 400% while at the same OPEC is happy the exports to the US is at 30 year lows. Economics is not the strongest point in the price ficing cartel. While production stayed at record highs rigs did come off again north America. We saw more Russian cracks are appearing. After the National Congress in China doubt the talk that Chinese shadow banking is less risky and under a control.
The Week Ahead
Markets will look to US data following the big US non-farm payrolls miss. We get January’s delayed retail sales report, durable goods and February’s CPI inflation data. Retail sales fell 1.2% in December on the heels of a 0.1% increase in November. Excluding autos, retail sales declined 1.8% in December after being unchanged in November. Few people believed the December report was as bad as indicated since it followed the strong employment report for December. Now the latest jobs report unsettles the consensus expecting upward revisions to the December data. China will continue to be in the news feed, particularly around stock market dips.
Emerging markets shook again with Argentina’s Peso hitting a record low, rocking the Turkish Lire with it. As we preach every week it’s not just the Fragile 5 that we should keep an eye on. Presidential elections are scheduled in Ukraine on March 31 with local elections in Turkey also scheduled that day. South Africa has Presidential elections on May 8. Voters will be going to the polls in Poland, Argentina, India and Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand this year. Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask?
If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.
Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have China and the U.S.trade wars.
Earnings last week included Burlington Stores, Costco, Dollar Tree, Kohl’s, Kroger, Ross Stores, Salesforce.com, Target, Thor Industries and Urban Outfitters.
The week ahead we see reports from Adidas, Adobe, Azul, Broadcom, Casey’s General, Cloudera, Dollar General, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Domo, Coupa Software, Embraer, Jabil Circuit, Momo, Oracle,Tribune Publishing, Ulta Beauty, Volkswagen, ZTO and Zumiez.
-comment section below data-
Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar
- China Producer Inflation Low Reflecting Weak Demand
- U.S. Oil Rigs Fall Another 9 With Crude Production at Record High
- Australia Hits All Time High Gold Production
- US Creates Only 20,000 Non Farm Jobs in February Missing Expected 190,000
- Huge Chinese Trade Miss as China Exports Fall 16.6%
- Into The Vortex – EIA Reports -149 Bcf Draw in Natural Gas Storage
- ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged As Expected But Announces New TLTRO
- Crude Oil Builds 7.069 Million Barrels Gasoline Draws 4.227 Million Barrels
- Bank of Canada Tones Down Hiking Mantra Holding Interest Rate at 1.75% as Expected
- U.S. Trade Deficit Highest in 10 Years With Record China, Mexico and EU Gaps
- RBA Leaves Rate Unchanged With Low Rates Supporting Economy
- Goldman Sachs Raises Gold and Silver Price Forecasts
The Week That Was – Last Weeks Recap
Earnings
Stock Markets
Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*
Which Stocks Moved US ETF’s Last Week
US Stock Indices Performance
S&P 500
With all the noise $SPX got back into the weekly cloud but on the daily we can see the Kijun-Sen with accelerating momentum to the breakline holding so far has the 8/8 MurreyMath sell rules apply
Apple $AAPL
Amazon $AMZN
Fixed Interest
10 Year Treasury Note
Energy and Commodities
US Crude Oil (WTI)
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
Currency Markets
Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)
New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)
Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)
Euro (EURUSD)
The ECB surprised this week in admitting what we all thought – $EURUSD hit new lows and tested the weekly Fib BUT didnt run – the prev channel and new lows give us guidance.
EuroPound (EURGBP)
Japanese Yen (USDJPY)
Mexican Peso (USDMXN)
Turkish Lire (USDTRY)
Movement in Emerging Markets again as the Argentina Peso $USDARS hit a record low against the dollar to close at 42.5 pesos. With the $usdtry breaking and retesting & local elections scheduled on March 31 in Turkey and USD strength be alert
Bitcoin
The Week Ahead
Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week
Mon Mar 11 2019
- 02:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY)
- 03:00 EUR German Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan)
- 03:00 EUR German Trade Balance (Jan)
- Tentative CNY FDI 4.80%
- Tentative CNY M2 Money Stock (YoY)
- Tentative CNY New Loans
- Tentative CNY Outstanding Loan Growth (YoY)
- 04:00 EUR Spanish Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan)
- 05:30 GBP Inflation Expectations
- Tentative EUR Eurogroup Meetings
- 08:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
- 10:00 USD Business Inventories (MoM) (Dec)
- 10:00 USD CB Employment Trends Index (Feb)
- 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
- 13:00 USD 3-Year Note Auction
- 19:50 JPY BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions (Q1)
- 20:30 AUD Home Loans (MoM)
- 20:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence (Feb)
- 20:30 AUD NAB Business Survey (Feb)
Tues Mar 12 2019
- 02:30 EUR French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q4)
- 02:30 AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
- 05:30 GBP BoE FPC Meeting Minutes
- 05:30 GBP U.K. Construction Output (YoY) (Jan)
- 05:30 GBP GDP (MoM) -0.4%
- 05:30 GBP Index of Services
- 05:30 GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (Jan)
- 05:30 GBP Trade Balance (Jan)
- 06:00 USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (Feb)
- Tentative EUR EU Finance Ministers Meeting
- 08:30 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Feb)
- 08:30 USD CPI (MoM) (Feb)
- 08:30 USD Real Earnings (MoM) (Feb)
- 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM)
- 09:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate
- 11:00 USD Cleveland CPI (MoM) (Feb)
- 13:00 USD 10-Year Note Auction
- Tentative GBP UK Parliament vote on Brexit deal
- 15:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
- 17:45 NZD FPI (MoM) (Feb) 1.0%
- 19:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Mar)
- 19:50 JPY Core Machinery Orders (MoM) (Jan)
- 19:50 JPY PPI (YoY) (Feb)
Wed Mar 13 2019
- 00:30 JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM)
- 04:00 EUR Spanish CPI (YoY) (Feb)
- 04:30 EUR ECB’s Mersch Speaks
- 04:45 EUR ECB’s Angeloni Speaks
- 05:00 EUR Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate
- Tentative GBP UK Parliament vote on No Brexit Deal
- 06:00 EUR Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan)
- 06:40 EUR German 30-Year Bund Auction
- 06:45 EUR Italian 30-Year BTP Auction
- 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
- 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
- 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
- 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index
- 08:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb)
- Tentative GBP Annual Budget Release
- 08:30 GBP Spring Forecast Statement
- 08:30 USD PPI (YoY) (Feb)
- 08:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jan)
- 10:00 USD Construction Spending (MoM) (Jan)
- 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1
- 13:00 USD 30-Year Bond Auction
- 13:00 EUR ECB’s Coeure Speaks
- 19:50 JPY Foreign Bonds Buying
- 20:00 AUD MI Inflation Expectations
- 20:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance (Feb)
- 22:00 CNY Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Jan)
- 22:00 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Jan)
- 22:00 CNY Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan)
- 22:00 CNY Chinese Unemployment Rate
Thur Mar 14 2019
- 01:45 CHF SECO Economic Forecasts
- 03:00 EUR German CPI (MoM) (Feb)
- 03:30 CHF PPI (MoM) (Feb)
- 03:45 EUR French CPI (MoM) (Feb)
- 05:30 ZAR Gold Production (YoY) (Jan)
- 06:45 GBP 30-Year Treasury Gilt Auction
- 07:00 USD OPEC Monthly Report
- 08:30 USD Export Price Index (YoY)
- 08:30 USD Import Price Index (YoY)
- 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
- 08:30 CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Jan)
- 10:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index (Mar)
- 10:00 USD New Home Sales (MoM) (Jan)
- 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
- 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
- 17:30 NZD Business NZ PMI (Feb)
- 18:50 CAD BoC Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks
- 21:30 CNY House Prices (YoY) (Feb)
- 23:00 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
- 23:00 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision
Friday, March 15, 2019
- Tentative JPY BoJ Press Conference
- 03:00 EUR German WPI (YoY) (Feb)
- 04:55 JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
- 05:00 USD IEA Monthly Report
- 05:00 EUR Italian Industrial New Orders (MoM) (Jan)
- 05:00 EUR Italian Industrial Sales (YoY) (Jan)
- 06:00 EUR Italian CPI (MoM) (Feb)
- 06:00 EUR Core CPI (YoY) (Feb)
- 06:00 EUR CPI (YoY) (Feb)
- 08:30 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Mar)
- 08:30 CAD Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Jan)
- 09:15 USD Capacity Utilization Rate (Feb)
- 09:15 USD Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb)
- 10:00 USD JOLTs Job Openings (Jan)
- 10:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar)
- 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Rig Count
- 15:30 USD CFTC speculative net positions
- 16:00 USD US Foreign Buying, T-bonds (Jan)
- 16:00 USD Overall Net Capital Flow (Jan)
- 16:00 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Jan)
- 16:00 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions including Swaps (Jan) –
- 17:30 NZD Business NZ PMI (Feb)
- 60B 17:30 NZD Business NZ PMI (Feb) 53.1 Legend
- 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Rig Count
- 15:30 CFTC speculative net positions
Notable Earnings Reports This Week
*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available
Monday Mar 11
Before Open
- ATHENEX INC ATNX CENTURY CASINOS CNTY HUTCHISN CH-ADR HCM ITURAN LOCATION ITRN NEO PERFORMANCE NEO OIL DRI CORP AM ODC SPRING BANK PHR SBPH
After Market Close
- ADT INC ADT ASPEN GROUP INC ASPU AVID BIOSERVICS CDMO CHEMOCENTRYX CCXI COMML VEHICLE CVGI COUPA SOFTWARE COUP DICERNA PHARMA DRNA ENDRA LIFE SCI NDRA FANHUA INC FANH FORTERRA INC FRTA HALLADOR ENERGY HNRG KALA PHARMCTLS KALA LUXFER HOLDINGS LXFR MISTRAS GROUP MG OCEAN POWER TEC OPTT OXFORD IMMUNOTC OXFD PACIFIC DRILLNG PACD PETIQ INC PETQ STITCH FIX-A SFIX TARENA INTL-ADR TEDU ZAFGEN INC ZFGN
Tuesday Mar 12
Before Open
- BG STAFFING INC BGSF CALYXT INC CLXT DEL FRISCOS RST DFRG DICKS SPRTG GDS DKS ENZO BIOCHEM ENZ INTL SEAWAYS INSW INTREPID POTASH IPI KEYW HOLDING CP KEYW KLX ENERGY SVCS KLXE KOPIN CORP KOPN MOMO INC -ADR MOMO NORTHRN OIL&GAS NOG ORION GROUP HLD ORN SYNLOGIC INC SYBX THESTREET.COM TST
After Close
- APTOSE BIOSCI APTO B2GOLD CORP BTG CARA THERAPEUTC CARA CLEAN EGY FUELS CLNE COHU INC COHU CV SCIENCES INC CVSI INOVIO PHARMAC INO LATAM AIRLINES LTM LIMONEIRA CO LMNR MOGO FIN TECH MOGO NATERA INC NTRA PAC ETHANOL INC PEIX PARETEUM CORP TEUM QUORUM HEALTH QHC SUNWORKS INC SUNW SWITCH INC-A SWCH TEAM INC TISI VERASTEM INC VSTM ZAGG INC ZAGG ZTO EXPRESS INC ZTO
Wednesday Mar 13
Before Open
- BUILD-A-BEAR WK BBW CHRISTOPHER&BNK CBK CORREVIO PHARMA CORV DAQO NEW ENERGY DQ EARTHSTONE EGY ESTE EVOGENE LTD EVGN EXPRESS INC EXPR GALMED PHARMA GLMD ON TRACK INNOV OTIV PEAK RESORTS SKIS SUPERIOR GOLD SGI VERA BRADLEY VRA
After Close
- ALEXCO RESOURCE AXU APYX MEDICAL CP APYX CLOUDERA INC CLDR DOMO INC DOMO FORTUNA SILVER FSM MELINTA THERAPT MLNT MIRAGEN THERAP MGEN NORTHWEST PIPE NWPX SEMTECH CORP SMTC SOLIUM CAPITAL SUM STEIN MART INC SMRT TAILORED BRANDS TLRD TALOS EGY INC TALO TRIBUNE PUBLISH TPCO VIKING THERAPTC VKTX
Thursday Mar 14
Before Open
- AXSOME THERPTCS AXSM AZUL SA AZUL DOLLAR GENERAL DG EYEPOINT PHARMA EYPT FRONTERA ENERGY FEC HUDSON LTD HUD INFINITY PHARMA INFI INTERNAP NETWRK INAP LIFETIME BRANDS LCUT NATURAL GAS SVC NGS NEOS THERAPTCS NEOS PREMIUM BRND-TS PBH PROGENICS PHARM PGNX VALEURA ENERGY VLE VANTAGE DRILLNG VTGDF
After Close
- ADOBE SYSTEMS ADBE ASURE SOFTWARE ASUR AVID TECH INC AVID BROADCOM INC AVGO DOCUSIGN INC DOCU HELIUS MEDICAL HSDT JABIL INC JBL ORACLE CORP ORCL PDL BIOPHARMA PDLI PIVOTAL SOFTWR PVTL ULTA BEAUTY INC ULTA
Friday Mar 15
Before Open
- CITI TRENDS INC CTRN Before Open HYDROGENICS CP HYGS KIRKLANDS INC KIRK STELLA-JONES SJ VUZIX CORP VUZI
After Close
- ‘ FUTUREFUEL CORP FF
For More Earnings and estimates visit Morningstar Earnings Here
Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.
Trade Smart!