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FEAR NOT Brave Investors
OPEC, Independence and Trade Wars
The Week That Was:
Another week of familar themes, the week was a build up to the G-20 in Japan and next week’s OPEC meeting in Vienna. We had Iran bully Europe into threatening to leave the nuclear treaty with the EU caving, or making a statement to the US at week’s end, depending on your bias. The stockmarkets seem hopeful for positive news touching new highs again. Yields continued to fall and the dollar with it. Gold and oil hit key highs but fell back at week’s end. The casino opened its doors to bitcoin again up 22% one day and down 25% the next. Who needs IPOs and fake meat stocks when you have crypto?
We had a mixed bag of earnings, homebuilders Lennar and KB Homes showing just how regional the economy is. Tech stocks were the standouts for the SPX and DJIA with MIcron and Western Digital leading the way. Last week the BoE, ECB and Fed bosses talked easing and we had more banker talk alomng those lines again.
Rare earth bans from China continues to gather headlines BUT should be noted that China does need that business also. We get closer to the much muted trade deal with the G-20 on the horizon, only eight months of about to happen deals with China.
We remind you to stay on your toes, ad nauseum we repeat; In this surreal world that market prices can only go up, with bizzare acceptance that we can’t go down and you are a fool if you think otherwise. We have had mixed economic data, no decision on the China and EU trade wars, no decision on Brexit and earnings have been marked down a beat won’t be hard to beat and here we are (see what ya wanna see).
The Week Ahead
It will be a thin week with America’s July 4 Independence Day holiday, and Canada Day on Monday. With OPEC, Iran and trade wars front and center the market spotlight will be on between the leaders of the world’s two biggest economies who are expected to meet in Japan on the sidelines of a Group of 20 (G20) summit. The market will be looking for a handshake and a commitment to resume talking. The market expects at least three rate cuts by the end of the year, with the probability of a July cut at 100% according to the CME FedWatch tool. This would all change with a positive Trump-Xi meeting.
Most analysts say a US-China trade deal will remain out of reach regardless of whether the two countries’ leaders meeting at the upcoming G-20 meeting in Osaka, Japan, on 28-29 June. On repeat “Again the issue is the disconnect between the story telling about the China deal and inconclusion between the Tories and Labor in the UK. What could go wrong?”
We start off Sunday night with the Tankan report out of Japan then we get a look at manufacturing and service PMIs and job reports out of Canada and the US. Central bank wise we have the Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision.
It is now over three months since the latest trade deal between the United States with China deadline of March 1. The White house said it needs more time, then turned around and slapped more tariffs on and said hey we are still talking. . Are we the only one that sees the constant reset to keep markets elevated? If you have half a non partisan brain it should be all pretty clear the great game going on.
For emerging markets the still high US dollar means the Fragile 5 continue to shake. Argentina and Turkey are red letter risks, 12 weeks of losses in the last 16 have the Turkish lira sliding back toward six to the dollar, the level that set caused panic last year. Voters will be going to the polls in Poland, Argentina, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand this year.
Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask?
If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.
Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have China and the U.S.trade wars.
-comment section below data-
Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar
- U.S. Adds Back 4 More Oil Rigs as Production Falls Slightly Again
- Iran Threatens To Follow North Korea And Withdraw From Nuclear Treaty
- Into The Vortex – EIA Reports +98 Bcf Build in Natural Gas Storage
- Around The Barrel – Crude Oil Draws Huge 12788k bbls Cushing Draws 1746k bbls
- Morgan Stanley Rates Gold No. 1 Commodity Pick as Price Hits Six Year High
- Texas Manufacturing Activity Slips as Order Growth and Capital Expenditure Slump
The Week That Was – Last Weeks Recap
- KB Homes Earnings Surprise After Homebuilder Selloff
- FedEx Earnings Beat, Warns of Amazon and Trade Wars Impact
- Micron Earnings Hit By Huawei Ban But Beats Lowered Expectations
- Lennar Guides Lower on Weaker West Sales and Order to Delivered Home Ratio
Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*
Which Stocks Moved US ETF’s Last Week
US Stock Indices Performance
The $SPX consolidated after new ATH back at Tenkan. We sit at +2/8 on the daily and Chikou. Options are the move is a B Flat or i-ii of wave V higher. Watch tenkan and Kijun for flattening or acceleration, Kijun is flat below. Note speed and channel lines in tune with algo calibration curve.
On the weekly we see the triple top or upper band test ahead. The ATH is +2/8 after impulse off down in 3 waves to the cloud and then impulse higher. We closed again over Tenkan and 50 wma. Clearer here the wave alts we asked on the daily.and note larger fibs
10 Year Treasury Note
Energy and Commodities
US Crude Oil (WTI)
WTI had 3 touches of the daily downtrend channel only to spit and reversed hard Friday to test the 50 dma while Kijun crossed through Tenkan below, Key are channel and 50 dma with Kijun tests. Expect volatility with OPEC. A C wave or a iii of I are the alternatives. WE closed right around the 50 dma at weeks end. Watch for spits now with fear in the pricing.
WTI spat hard to close at the weekly Tenkan and under 50wma (green), now as key resistance with channel, We got the expected retest there to bring chikou back in balance (blue) – watch Murrey confluence with the cloud acting as resistance.
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Natural Gas battled all week to close over the Tenkan (orange) with a flattening Kijun above but much work to do . Well under the 2017-18 low and -5/8 Murrey Math 3/8 recalc) after came off the 50dma. With record low futures longs be wary as at some point pressure gives way.
Natural Gas well under the 2017-18 low trying to retest the Tenkan upside resistance. Price caughtup to Chikou stopped the fall last week which the balance there.gave some strength.
Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
Australian Dollar – AUDUSD
The Aussie dollar continued from last week’s bounce the bottom weekly channel and Murrey Math 0/8 right to the Kijun for the second time, above which it needs to clear to get a meaningful bounce in.
New Zealand Dollar – NZDUSD
The Kiwi continued it’s rebound after failing to break recent lows has bounced through the ABC break and 50 dma after theTenken and Kijun to top of daily cloud. Murrey Math 6/8 Above here is 8/8 and breakdown retest. Watch NZDJPY for Momentum shifts.
Canadian Dollar – USDCAD
The false break on the Loonie was thrown back the top of the cloud and 50dma confluence which confirms the break was actually the Tenkan. This week’s shift tested the March dollar breakup. In cohesian gain with oil and Iran. Keep an eye on Tenjan and WTI control aspects.
Euro – EURUSD
Last week Euro Weekly back tested the flag break and Tenkan for a bull flag confirm forming since September last year and gathered the energy to get over the Kijun. . EUR ahead has the cloud and a 50% confluence, needs impulse to gather momentum.
EuroPound – EURGBP
Nothing new here .. EURGBP inching it’s way up to the 50 wma & top of channel locked in the channel with Tory leadership mess giving EUR a bid. Brexit channel closed over the Kijun & cloud. With all the politics the channel remains valid for now.
Japanese Yen – USDJPY
The dollar yen broke the uptrend and has been held down by the tenkan since and then the KIjun now ahead of the Chikou needing to revert downtrend of yen buying continued on the crosses, EURJPY and AUDJPY. We are testing the April break up which conicided with risk on Above us is flattening cloud, tenkan tenkan(orange) and Kijun (pink) however are on trend.
Mexican Peso USDMXN
Mexican peso continued to drift higher after last week’s gap. Watch Kijun as its flattening and we are over tenkan and in the cloud.
Turkish Lire USDTRY
The Turkish Lire last week stayed under the kijun and flirted with the cloud and Tenlan all weeks trying to find balance.Resiatance is old trend line and Kijun and cloud top
Bitcoin rally contues at pace once inside the weekly cloud from bottom to top.after liss of life from Kijun accelerated to over 38% of the total down move with 50% in sight. Use your MM rules as algos control the herd here, support is the cloud and tenkan, be wary of sharp ABC, 1-2 moves.
The Week Ahead
Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week
Sun June 30, 2019
- 18:30 AUD AIG Manufacturing Index (Jun)
- 19:00 AUD Manufacturing PMI
- 19:50 JPY Tankan All Big Industry CAPEX (Q2)
- 19:50 JPY Tankan All Small Industry CAPEX (Q2)
- 19:50 JPY Tankan Big Manufacturing Outlook Index (Q2)
- 19:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q2)
- 19:50 JPY Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Diffusion Index (Q2) 1
- 9:50 JPY Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q2)
- 19:50 JPY Tankan Small Manufacturers Diffusion Index (Q2)
- 19:50 JPY Tankan Small Manufacturing Index (Q2)
- 19:50 JPY Tankan Small Non-Manufacturers Diffusion Index (Q2)
- 19:50 JPY Tankan Small Non-Manufacturing Index (Q2)
- 20:00 KRW Trade Balance (Jun)
- 20:30 KRW Nikkei Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
- 20:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
- 21:00 AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM)
- 21:00 AUD MI Inflation Gauge (MoM)
- 21:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Monday, July 1, 2019
- All Day Holiday Canada – Canada Day
- All Day Holiday Hong Kong – Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day
- 01:00 INR Nikkei Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
- 01:00 JPY Household Confidence (Jun)
- 02:30 CHF Retail Sales (YoY) (May)
- 02:30 AUD Commodity Prices (YoY)
- 03:15 EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
- 03:45 EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
- 03:50 EUR French Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
- 03:55 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
- 03:55 EUR German Unemployment (Jun)
- 04:00 EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate (May)
- 04:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
- 04:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
- 04:30 GBP Mortgage Lending (May)
- 05:00 EUR Unemployment Rate (May)
- Tentative USD OPEC Meeting
- 09:00 BRL Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
- 09:45 USD Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
- 10:00 USD Construction Spending (MoM) (May)
- 10:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
- 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
- 18:00 NZD NZIER Business Confidence (Q2)
- 18:00 NZD NZIER QSBO Capacity Utilization (Q2)
- 18:45 NZD Building Consents (MoM) (May)
- 19:00 KRW CPI (MoM) (Jun)
- 19:50 JPY Monetary Base (YoY)
- 23:45 JPY 10-Year JGB Auction
Tues July 2, 2019
- 00:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jul)
- 00:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
- 02:00 GBP Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Jun)
- 02:00 EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
- 02:45 EUR French Government Budget Balance (May)
- 03:00 EUR Spanish Unemployment Change
- 03:30 CHF SVME PMI (Jun)
- 04:30 GBP Construction PMI (Jun)
- 04:30 HKD Retail Sales (YoY) (May)
- 05:00 EUR PPI (MoM) (May)
- 05:30 AUD RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
- 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM)
- 09:30 CAD RBC Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
- 09:45 USD ISM – NY Business Conditions (Jun)
- 10:00 USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
- Tentative NZD GlobalDairyTrade Price Index
- 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
- Tentative USD Total Vehicle Sales
- 18:30 AUD AIG Services Index (Jun)
- 19:00 AUD Services PMI
- 21:00 NZD ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM)
- 21:30 AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (May)
- 21:30 AUD Private House Approvals (May)
- 21:30 AUD RBA Chart Pack Release
- 21:30 AUD Trade Balance (May)
- 21:30 JPY BOJ Board Member Funo Speaks
Wed July 3 2019
- Holiday United States – Independence Day – Early close at 13:00
- 03:15 EUR Spanish Services PMI (Jun)
- 03:45 EUR Italian Services PMI (Jun)
- 03:50 EUR French Markit Composite PMI (Jun)
- 03:50 EUR French Services PMI (Jun)
- 03:55 EUR German Composite PMI (Jun)
- 03:55 EUR German Services PMI (Jun)
- 04:00 EUR Markit Composite PMI (Jun)
- 04:00 EUR Services PMI (Jun)
- 04:30 GBP Services PMI (Jun)
- 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
- 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
- 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
- 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index
- 07:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts (Jun)
- 08:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun)
- 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
- 08:30 USD Trade Balance (May)
- 08:30 CAD Trade Balance (May)
- 09:00 SGD Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
- 09:45 USD Markit Composite PMI (Jun)
- 09:45 USD Services PMI (Jun)
- 10:00 USD Cap Goods Ship Non Defense Ex Air (MoM)
- 10:00 USD Factory Orders (MoM) (May)
- 10:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
- 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
- 12:00 USD Natural Gas Storage
- 20:30 HKD Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
- 21:30 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
- 23:35 JPY 30-Year JGB Auction
Thursday July 4, 2019
- All Day Holiday United States – Independence Day
- 02:30 CHF CPI (MoM) (Jun)
- 05:00 EUR Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
- 18:30 AUD AIG Construction Index (Jun)
- 19:30 JPY Household Spending (MoM) (May)
- 19:50 JPY Foreign Reserves (USD)
Friday July 5, 2019
- 01:00 JPY Coincident Indicator (MoM) (May)
- 01:00 JPY Leading Index
- 02:00 EUR German Factory Orders (MoM) (May)
- 02:00 EUR German Industrial Production (MoM) (May)
- 02:45 EUR French Current Account (May)
- 02:45 EUR French Trade Balance (May)
- 03:00 EUR Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) (May)
- 03:30 GBP Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Jun)
- 06:15 EUR Spanish Consumer Confidence
- 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun)
- 08:30 USD Average Weekly Hours (Jun)
- 08:30 USD Manufacturing Payrolls (Jun)
- 08:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun)
- 08:30 USD Participation Rate (Jun)
- 08:30 USD U6 Unemployment Rate (Jun)
- 08:30 USD Unemployment Rate (Jun)
- 08:30 CAD Employment Change (Jun)
- 08:30 CAD Full Employment Change (Jun)
- 08:30 CAD Part Time Employment Change (Jun)
- 08:30 CAD Participation Rate (Jun)
- 08:30 CAD Unemployment Rate (Jun)
- 10:00 CAD Ivey PMI (Jun)
- 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Rig Count
- 15:30 GBP CFTC speculative net positions
Notable Earnings Reports This Week
*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available
Monday July 1
- SINGING MACHINE SMDM
- AETHLON MEDICAL AEMD
Tuesday July 2
- 1933 INDUSTRIES TGI ACUITY BRANDS AYI GREENBRIER COS GBX OMNOVA SOLUTION OMN SIMPLY GOOD FDS SMPL
Wednesday July 3
- INTL SPEEDWAY ISCA
- TECSYS INC TCS
Thursday July 4
Friday July 5
For More Earnings and estimates visit
Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.