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FEAR NOT Brave Investors
Via Michael Rameriz.com
Iran, G-20 and Trade Wars
The Week That Was:
The week was highlighted by more Iranian tensions following last week’s 2 tanker attack in the Straight of Hormuz putting a bid under oil. We saw oil jump another 6% after Iran shot down an American drone and we were just 15 mins from a U.S.attack on Iran. The Mid East is just starting to warm up.
The SPX and DJIA hit new all time highs after BoE, ECB and Fed bosses talked easing and concern. Another week of mainly poor economic reports helped see the U.S. dollar sell off and gold break higher as yields fell. We are back in the bad news is good cycle the stock market didn’t flinch on the news, good or bad.
Rare earth bans from China continues to gather headlines BUT should be noted that China does need that business also. We get closer to the much muted trade deal with the G-20 on the horizon, only eight months of about to happen deals with China.
We remind you to stay on your toes, ad nauseum we repeat; In this surreal world that market prices can only go up, with bizzare acceptance that we can’t go down and you are a fool if you think otherwise. We have had mixed economic data, no decision on the China and EU trade wars, no decision on Brexit and earnings have been marked down a beat won’t be hard to beat and here we are (see what ya wanna see).
The Week Ahead
With Iran and trade wars front and center the market spotlight will be on between the leaders of the world’s two biggest economies who are expected to meet in Japan on the sidelines of a Group of 20 (G20) summit next week. The market will be looking for a handshake and a commitment to resume talking. The market expects at least three rate cuts by the end of the year, with the probability of a July cut at 100% according to the CME FedWatch tool. This would all change with a positive Trump-Xi meeting.
Most analysts say a US-China trade deal will remain out of reach regardless of whether the two countries’ leaders meet at the upcoming G-20 meeting in Osaka, Japan, on 28-29 June. On repeat “Again the issue is the disconnect between the story telling about the China deal and inconclusion between the Tories and Labor in the UK. What could go wrong?”
It is now over three months since the latest trade deal between the United States with China deadline of March 1. The White house said it needs more time, then turned around and slapped more tariffs on and said hey we are still talking. . Are we the only one that sees the constant reset to keep markets elevated? If you have half a non partisan brain it should be all pretty clear the great game going on.
For emerging markets the high US dollar means the Fragile 5 continue to shake. Argentina and Turkey are red letter risks, 12 weeks of losses in the last 16 have the Turkish lira sliding back toward six to the dollar, the level that set caused panic last year. Voters will be going to the polls in Poland, Argentina, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand this year.
Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask?
If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.
Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have China and the U.S.trade wars.
Earnings last week included Adobe, Canopy Growth, Carmax, Darden Restaurants, Kroger and Oracle reporting. Next week we have Accenture, Conagra, FedEx, General Mills, KB Home, Lennar, Micron Technology, Nike, Paychex, Rite Aid and Walgreens
-comment section below data-
Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar
- U.S. Takes Off More 4 More Oil Rigs in Texas, Canada Adds 11 as Production Falls Slightly Again
- Slack Lists Direct To Public With A $20 Billion Valuation
- Into The Vortex – EIA Reports Build of 115 Bcf in Natural Gas Storage
- Bank of England Holds Base Rate at 0.75%, Cuts UK Growth Rate
- Federal Reserve Keeps Rates Unchanged as Expected, Labor Market Strong
- Around The Barrel – Crude Oil and Gasoline Storage Draw as Production Falls For Second Week
- Weak Global Manufacturing Sees United States Steel Slash Production
- Domino’s and Nuro Combine For Self Driving Pizza Delivery Trial in Houston
The Week That Was – Last Weeks Recap
Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*
Which Stocks Moved US ETF’s Last Week
US Stock Indices Performance
The $SPX hit a new ATH and closed just under the previous ATH. We sit at +2/8 on the daily and Chikou. Options are the move is a B Flat or i-ii of wave V higher. Watch tenkan and Kijun for flattening or acceleration. To here completed ABC and new 5 wave either X or i, Use your 240 for guidance there.
On the weekly we see the triple top or upper band test ahead. The ATH is +2/8 after impulse off down in 3 waves to the cloud and then impulse higher. We closed over Tenkan and 50 wma. Clearer here the wave alts we asked on the daily.and note larger fibs
10 Year Treasury Note
Energy and Commodities
US Crude Oil (WTI)
Since WTI reversed hard through the 61.8% Fib and gaining energy after the Kijun tests impulse picked up, is this a C wave or a iii of I are the alternatives. WE closed right around the 50 dma at weeks end. Watch for spits now with fear in the pricing.
WTI spat hard last week to close at the weekly Kijun, this week we saw it give way and the impulse that resulted. Above we have tenkan, cloud and 50wma (green) as key resistance, We got the expected retest there to bring chikou back in balance (blue) – watch Murrey confluence with the cloud acting as resistance.
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Natural Gas broke down futher under the Tenkan (orange) with a flattening Kijun above but much work to do . Well under the 2017-18 low and -5/8 Murrey Math 3/8 recalc) after came off the 50dma. With record low futures longs be wary as at some point pressure gives way.
Natural Gas well under the 2017-18 low has continued to dribble lower, with a quick 20c off the Tenkan Upside resistance heavy with Tenkan and previous breaks proving too strong. Price catching up to Chikou stopped the fall at week’s end, which the balance there.
Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
Australian Dollar – AUDUSD
The Aussie dollar bounced sharply off the bottom weekly channel and Murrey Math 0/8 again with the Kijun flattening above which it needs to clear to get a meaningful bounce in.
New Zealand Dollar – NZDUSD
The Kiwi after failing to break the recent lows again after the sharp ABC sell off the 50 dma bounced sharply and through theTenken, Murrey Math 4/8. Heavy conjestion above with daily cloud, Kijun and 50 dma. Watch NZDJPY for Momentum shifts.
Canadian Dollar – USDCAD
The false break on the Loonie was thrown back the top of the cloud and 50dma confluence which confirms the break was actually the Tenkan. This week’s shift tested the March dollar breakup. In cohesian gain with oil and Iran. Keep an eye on Tenjan and WTI control aspects.
Euro – EURUSD
The Euro Weekly back tested the flag break and Tenkan for a bull flag confirm forming since September last year. EUR held and took off with impulse, we would like into gather momentum over the Kijun to the cloud at 1.1460.
EuroPound – EURGBP
Nothing new here .. EURGBP inching it’s way up to the 50 wma & top of channel locked in the channel with the Tory leadership mess giving EUR a bid. Brexit channel closed over the Kijun & cloud. With all the politics the channel remains valid for now.
Japanese Yen – USDJPY
The dollar yen broke the uptrend and has been held down by the tenkan since and then the KIjun now ahead of the Chikou needing to revert downtrend of yen buying continued on the crosses, EURJPY and AUDJPY. We are testing the April break up which conicided with risk on Above us is flattening cloud, tenkan tenkan(orange) and Kijun (pink) however are on trend.
Mexican Peso USDMXN
Mexican peso continued to drift higher after last week’s gap. Watch Kijun as its flattening and we are over tenkan and in the cloud.
Turkish Lire USDTRY
The Turkish Lire last week stayed under the kijun and flirted with the cloud and Tenlan all weeks trying to find balance.Resiatance is old trend line and Kijun and cloud top
Bitcoin rally contues at pace once inside the weekly cloud from bottom to top.after liss of life from Kijun accelerated to over 38% of the total down move with 50% in sight. Use your MM rules as algos control the herd here, support is the cloud and tenkan, be wary of sharp ABC, 1-2 moves.
The Week Ahead
Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week
Sun June 23, 2019
- 10:00 USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
- 19:30 AUD RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
- 23:00 NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY)
Mon June 24 2019
- 01:00 JPY Leading Index
- 01:00 SGD CPI (YoY) (May)
- 04:00 EUR German Business Expectations
- 04:00 EUR German Current Assessment
- 04:00 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index
- Tentative GBP Inflation Report Hearings
- 08:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity (May)
- 10:30 USD Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Jun)
- 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
- 17:00 KRW Consumer Confidence (Jun)
- 18:45 NZD Trade Balance (MoM) (May)
- 19:50 JPY Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) (YoY)
- 19:50 JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Tues June 25 2019
- 01:00 JPY BoJ Core CPI (YoY)
- 02:45 EUR French Business Survey (Jun)
- 03:00 EUR Spanish PPI (YoY)
- 03:05 AUD RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speaks
- 04:30 HKD Trade Balance
- Tentative USD OPEC Meeting
- 08:30 CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Apr)
- 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM)
- 09:00 USD House Price Index (MoM)
- 09:00 USD S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 (MoM)
- 10:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Jun)
- 10:00 USD New Home Sales (MoM) (May)
- 10:00 USD Richmond Manufacturing Index (Jun)
- 10:00 USD Richmond Services Index (Jun)
- 10:30 USD Dallas Fed Services Revenues (Jun)
- 10:30 USD Texas Services Sector Outlook (Jun)
- 12:00 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
- 13:00 USD 2-Year Note Auction
- 13:00 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
- 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
- 18:30 USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
- 22:00 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
- 22:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
- 23:00 NZD RBNZ Press Conference
Wed June 26 2019
- 01:00 SGD Industrial Production (MoM) (May)
- 02:00 EUR GfK German Consumer Climate (Jul)
- 02:45 EUR French Consumer Confidence (Jun)
- 04:00 EUR Italian Public Deficit (Q1)
- 04:00 CHF ZEW Expectations (Jun)
- 04:30 GBP Gross Mortgage Approvals
- 06:00 EUR France Jobseekers Total
- 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
- 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
- 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
- 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index
- 08:30 USD Cap Goods Ship Non Defense Ex Air (MoM)
- 08:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May)
- 08:30 USD Goods Trade Balance (May)
- 08:30 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM)
- 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
- 13:00 USD 5-Year Note Auction
- 17:00 KRW Manufacturing BSI Index (Jul)
- 19:50 JPY Foreign Bonds Buying
- 19:50 JPY Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks
- 19:50 JPY Retail Sales (YoY) (May)
- 21:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence (Jun)
- 21:00 NZD NBNZ Own Activity (Jun)
Thur June 27 2019
- 03:00 EUR Spanish HICP (YoY) (Jun)
- 04:00 EUR Italian Business Confidence (Jun)
- 04:00 EUR Italian Consumer Confidence (Jun)
- 05:00 EUR Business and Consumer Survey (Jun)
- 05:00 EUR Business Climate (Jun)
- 05:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (Jun)
- 06:15 EUR Inflation Expectation (Jun)
- 06:15 EUR Spanish Business Confidence
- 08:00 EUR German CPI (MoM) (Jun)
- 08:00 EUR German HICP (MoM) (Jun)
- 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
- 08:30 USD Core PCE Prices (Q1)
- 08:30 USD Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q1)
- 08:30 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
- 08:30 USD GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q1)
- 08:30 USD GDP Sales (Q1)
- 08:30 USD PCE Prices (Q1)
- 08:30 USD Real Consumer Spending (Q1)
- 10:00 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (May)
- 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
- 11:00 USD KC Fed Composite Index (Jun)
- 11:00 USD KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun)
- 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
- 13:00 USD 7-Year Note Auction
- 19:00 KRW Industrial Production (MoM) (May)
- 19:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence (Jun
- 19:30 JPY Tokyo CPI (YoY) (Jun)
- 19:30 JPY Unemployment Rate (May)
- 19:50 JPY BoJ Summary of Opinions
- 19:50 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (May)
- 21:30 AUD Housing Credit (May)
- 21:30 AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM) (May)
Friday June 28, 2019
- 01:00 JPY Construction Orders (YoY) (May)
- 01:00 JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (May)
- 02:00 GBP Nationwide HPI (MoM)
- 02:00 EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (May)
- 02:00 EUR German Import Price Index (YoY) (May)
- 02:45 EUR French Consumer Spending (MoM) (May)
- 02:45 EUR French CPI (MoM)
- 02:45 EUR French HICP (MoM)
- 02:45 EUR French PPI (MoM) (May)
- 03:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicators (Jun)
- 03:00 EUR Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
- 03:00 EUR Spanish Retail Sales (YoY) (May)
- 04:00 EUR Spanish Current account (Apr)
- 04:30 GBP Business Investment (QoQ) (Q1)
- 04:30 GBP Current Account (Q1)
- 04:30 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
- 05:00 EUR Italian CPI (MoM) (Jun)
- 05:00 EUR Italian HICP (MoM) (Jun)
- 05:00 EUR CPI (YoY) (Jun)
- 06:00 EUR Italian PPI (MoM) (May)
- 08:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (May)
- 08:30 USD PCE Deflator (MoM)
- 08:30 USD Personal Income (MoM) (May)
- 08:30 USD Personal Spending (MoM) (May)
- 08:30 USD Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (May)
- 08:30 CAD GDP (MoM) (Apr)
- 08:30 CAD IPPI (MoM) (May)
- 08:30 CAD RMPI (MoM) (May)
- 09:45 USD Chicago PMI (Jun)
- 10:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun)
- 10:30 CAD BoC Business Outlook Survey
- 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Rig Count
- 15:30 GBP CFTC speculative net positions
Notable Earnings Reports This Week
*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available
Monday June 24
- SCWX Secureworks Corp. – Class A
After Market Close
Tuesday June 24
- LEN Lennar Class A FDS Factset Research Systems BNED Barnes & Noble Education
Wednesday June 25
- GIS General Mills Inc. PAYX Paychex Inc. INFO Ihs Markit BB Blackberry UNF Unifirst ATU Actuant SCHN Schnitzer Steel Industries ACST Acasti Pharma
- FUL HB Fuller Co MLHR Herman Miller KBH KB Home WOR Worthington Industries PIR Pier 1 Imports Inc. NG Novagold Resources Inc. RAD Rite Aid FFHL Fuwei Films
Thursday June 26
- ACN Accenture PLC Class A WBA Walgreen Boots Alliance MKC Mccormick Incorporated CAG Conagra Brands SJR Shaw Communications PDCO Patterson Companies Inc. APOG Apogee Enterprises GMS GMS Inc. SKIS Peak Resorts Inc. SOL Renesola Ltd. American Depsitary Shares
- NKE Nike Inc.PRGS Progress Software SGH Smart Global Holdings FC Franklin Covey Company CAMP Calamp Corp.
Friday June 27
- STZ Constellation Brands RSH Jerash Holdings JKS Jinkosolar Holding Co ADS
For More Earnings and estimates visit
Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.