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FEAR NOT Brave Investors
Central Banks, Iran and Trade Wars
The Week That Was:
The week saw more trade war talk and denial with Mexico and China Tariffs. we had 2 tankers attacked in the Straight of Hormuz putting a bid under oil. The U.S. claims Iran did it, Iran denies it, false flag and conspiracy theories run amok. One gets the feeling the Mid East is just starting to warm up.
On Friday after a week of mainly poor economic reports we saw large upside revisions of U.S, retail sales see the U.S. dollar rise and yields as an imminent cut fell from around 81% expections to a 24% expectaion. Just a week ago we had the big miss in the payrolls report. The May PPI and CPI show inflation pressure is not leaking through. While we are back in the bad news is good cycle the stock market didn’t flinch on the better news.
The Fed chair has a tricky meeting as he is now witness to a situation where they are not only likely to lower rates but more than they would like. The question is how can they sell putting it off to market, and POTUS?
Rare earth bans from China continues to gather headlines BUT should be noted that China does need that business also.
We remind you to stay on your toes, ad nauseum we repeat; In this surreal world that market prices can only go up, with bizzare acceptance that we can’t go down and you are a fool if you think otherwise. We have had mixed economic data, no decision on the China and EU trade wars, no decision on Brexit and earnings have been marked down a beat won’t be hard to beat and here we are (see what ya wanna see).
The Week Ahead
With Iran and trade wars front and center the market spotlight will be on central banks, The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan all meet to decide on policy. On Wednesday we see if the Fed pushed back market expectations for rate cuts. We should note US first quarter GDP was 3.1%, near record low unemployment and a stock market near all-time highs, is a rate cut a given, and if so why? The next day the BoE meet and with the Brexit deadline extended to October and the latest soft economic data any talk of rate hikes appears detached from reality.
The UK will also be monitoring the televised Conservative party leadership debate, on Tuesday. With another round of soft European inflation data the German ZEW institute’s economic confidence index for June will be watched closely. Most analysts say a US-China trade deal will remain out of reach regardless of whether the two countries’ leaders meet at the upcoming G-20 meeting in Osaka, Japan, on 28-29 June. On repeat “Again the issue is the disconnect between the story telling about the China deal and inconclusion between the Tories and Labor in the UK. What could go wrong?”
It is now over three months since the latest trade deal between the United States with China deadline of March 1. The White house said it needs more time, then turned around and slapped more tariffs on and said hey we are still talking. . Are we the only one that sees the constant reset to keep markets elevated? If you have half a non partisan brain it should be all pretty clear the great game going on.
For emerging markets the high US dollar means the Fragile 5 continue to shake. Argentina and Turkey are red letter risks, 12 weeks of losses in the last 16 have the Turkish lira sliding back toward six to the dollar, the level that set caused panic last year. Voters will be going to the polls in Poland, Argentina, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand this year.
Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask?
If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.
Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have China and the U.S.trade wars.
-comment section below data-
Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar
- U.S. Takes Off More Oil Rigs in Texas as Production Falls Slightly
- Into The Vortex – EIA Reports Build of 102 Bcf in Natural Gas Storage
- OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report June 2019
- CrowdStrike IPO Hacks a 97% Gain on Debut
- Around The Barrel – Crude Oil and Gasoline Build, Surprise Production Fall
- Mortgage Applications Rise 26.8% as Refinancing Surges on Lower Rates
- Goldman Sachs Warns of Surprise Banco de México Rate Cut as Mexican Economy Deteriorates
The Week That Was – Last Weeks Recap
- Lululemon Earnings Beat Sending LULU To Another Record High
- RV Maker Thor Revenue Boosted by Erwin Hymer European Sales
Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*
Which Stocks Moved US ETF’s Last Week
US Stock Indices Performance
The $SPX stopped just under the b or ii and +2/8 at the top of the cloud. The index is flagging after it blew off the ABC through tenkan and Kijun in impulse. From here completed ABC and new 5 wave either X or i, alternative is recent low abc of A. The chikou, Cloud, ATH resistance. Use your 240 for guidance there.
On the weekly we see the previous high fail near +2/8 down in 3 waves to the cloud and then impulse higher. We closed over Tenkan with topside held by 50 wma. Clearer here the wave alts we asked on the daily.and note larger fibs
10 Year Treasury Note
Energy and Commodities
US Crude Oil (WTI)
WTI reversed hard through the 61.8% Fib after breaking down retesting the cloud and getting the ‘kiss of death’ on the Tenkan/kijun touch. The Daily ABC, B or ii) broke with impulse testing the breakup level Feb. On the bounce we broke above the Tenkan at week’s end but failed to close above it. Key going forward.
WTI spat hard to close the week at the weekly Kijun but failed to get over falling away, mark this as key resistance. Well under the 50wma (green) and Tenkan, We got the expected retest there to bring chikou back in balance (blue) – watch Murrey confluence with the cloud acting as resistance.
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Natural Gas did rally at week’s end to get over the daily Tenkan (orange) with a flattening Kijun above but much work to do . Well under the 2017-18 low and -3/8 Murrey Math after came off the 50dma. With record low futures longs be wary as at some point pressure gives way.
Natural Gas closed back under the prev 100% also the 2017-18 low has continued to dribble lower. Upside resistance heavy with Tenkan and previous breaks proving too strong. When do the doldrums end?
Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
Australian Dollar – AUDUSD
The Aussie dollar reversed sharply off the Kijun again at end of last week closing back with the chikou near the channel base at 0/8 Murrey Math. Higher US/Australai yield spreads the catalyst.
New Zealand Dollar – NZDUSD
The Kiwi after topping out at the 50 dma and bottom of the cloud in 3 waves after reversed lower, accelerated at the Tanken/Kijun kiss of death. Key was the tenkan and the Murrey Math 4/8 bust. Key is previous low and break retest.
Canadian Dollar – USDCAD
Why that was a false break from the Loonie after the USDCAD touched the upper band to sell off hard, accelerating as Kijun and Tenkan crossed as it went through cloud, breaking channel and cloud base it snapped back through channel to Tenkan and top of cloud
Euro – EURUSD
The Euro Weekly is back testing the break out of the bull flag that has been forming since September last year after failing at the Kijun. All the way back to Tenkan.
EuroPound – EURGBP
Nothing new here .. EURGBP locked in the channel with the recent May resignation mess giving EUR a bid. Brexit channel closed over the Kijun testing the cloud. With all the politics the channel remains valid for now.
Japanese Yen – USDJPY
The dollar yen got over the tenkan in 1-2 but with no impulse as yen buying continued on the crosses, EURJPY and AUDJPY. We are testing the February break up which conicided with risk on Above us is flattening cloud, tenkan tenkan(orange) and Kijun (pink) be wary of a reversal.
Mexican Peso USDMXN
Mexican peso gapped up Sunday with the US deal news and game back just to sludge around the cloud for the week. With the deal done after the close watch Kijun, tenkan cloud as resistance with the Weekly 1/8 Murrey Math support.
Turkish Lire USDTRY
The Turkish Lire last week after completing the 8/8 move reversed in an ABC, accelerating through the Tenkan/Kijun crossover to restest the cloud. bounced back to tenkan, which is now resistance
Bitcoinback trading orderly after spitting +2/8 restested +8/8 and Kijun confuence Use your MM rules as algos control the herd here with Tenkan and weekly highs your guides.. Support is the cloud, be wary of sharp ABC, 1-2 moves.
The Week Ahead
Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week
Sun June 16, 2019
- All Day Holiday South Africa – Youth Day
- 19:00 GBP Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)
- 20:30 SGD Non-Oil Exports (MoM) (May)
Mon June 17 2019
- All Day Holiday South Africa – Public Holiday
- Tentative GBP Inflation Report Hearings
- 05:00 EUR Labor Cost Index (YoY) (Q1)
- Tentative EUR German Buba Monthly Report
- 08:30 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun)
- 08:30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases (Apr)
- 08:30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (Apr)
- 10:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index (Jun)
- 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
- 16:00 USD US Foreign Buying, T-bonds (Apr)
- 16:00 USD Overall Net Capital Flow (Apr)
- 16:00 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Apr)
- 16:00 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions including Swaps (Apr)
- 17:00 NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Q2)
- 19:00 JPY Reuters Tankan Index (Jun)
- 20:45 SGD Trade Balance
- 21:30 AUD House Price Index (QoQ) (Q1)
- 21:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
- 21:30 CNY House Prices (YoY) (May)
Tues June 18 2019
- 02:00 EUR German PPI (MoM) (May)
- 02:00 EUR German WPI (MoM) (May)
- 05:00 EUR German ZEW Current Conditions (Jun)
- 05:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jun)
- 05:00 EUR CPI (MoM) (May)
- 05:00 EUR Trade Balance (Apr)
- 05:00 EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment
- 05:45 GBP 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction
- 08:30 USD Building Permits (MoM) (May)
- 08:30 USD Housing Starts (MoM) (May)
- 08:30 CAD Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Apr)
- 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM)
- Tentative NZD GlobalDairyTrade Price Index
- 11:30 USD 52-Week Bill Auction
- 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
- 18:45 NZD Current Account (QoQ) (Q1)
- 19:50 JPY Trade Balance (May)
- 20:30 AUD MI Leading Index (MoM)
- 23:00 NZD RBNZ Offshore Holdings (May)
Wed June 19 2019
- 02:00 EUR German PPI (MoM)
- 04:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance (Apr)
- 04:00 EUR Current Account (Apr)
- 04:30 GBP CPI (MoM) (May)
- 04:30 GBP House Price Index (YoY)
- 04:30 GBP PPI Input (MoM) (May)
- 04:30 GBP PPI Output (MoM) (May)
- 04:30 GBP RPI (MoM) (May)
- 04:30 HKD Unemployment Rate (May)
- 05:40 EUR German 30-Year Bund Auction
- 06:00 GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders
- 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
- 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
- 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
- 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index
- 08:30 08:30 CAD CPI (MoM) (May)
- 09:00 CHF SNB Quarterly Bulletin
- 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
- 14:00 USD FOMC Economic Projections
- 14:00 USD FOMC Statement
- 14:00 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
- 14:30 USD FOMC Press Conference
- 17:00 KRW PPI (MoM) (May)
- 18:45 NZD GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
- 19:50 JPY Foreign Bonds Buying
- 21:00 KRW BOK Financial Stability Board Meeting
- 21:15 AUD RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
- 21:30 AUD RBA Bulletin
- Tentative JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
- Tentative JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision
Thur June 20 2019
- All Day Holiday Brazil – Corpus Christi Day
- 00:30 JPY All Industries Activity Index (MoM)
- 02:00 CHF Trade Balance (May)
- Tentative JPY BoJ Press Conference
- 04:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
- 04:30 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
- 07:00 GBP BoE QE Total (Jun)
- 07:00 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jun)
- 07:00 GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
- 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
- 08:30 USD Current Account (Q1)
- 08:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun)
- 08:30 CAD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
- 10:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (Jun)
- 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
- 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
- 13:00 USD 5-Year TIPS Auction
- 19:00 AUD Manufacturing PMI
- 19:00 AUD Services PMI
- 19:30 JPY National CPI (MoM)
- 20:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Friday June 28, 2019
- 03:15 EUR French Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
- 03:15 EUR French Markit Composite PMI (Jun)
- 03:15 EUR French Services PMI (Jun)
- 03:30 EUR German Composite PMI (Jun)
- 03:30 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
- 03:30 EUR German Services PMI (Jun)
- 04:00 EUR Spanish Trade Balance
- 04:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
- 04:00 EUR Markit Composite PMI (Jun)
- 04:00 EUR Services PMI (Jun)
- 04:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (May)
- 04:30 GBP Public Sector Net Cash Requirement (May)
- 04:30 HKD CPI (YoY) (May)
- 07:00 GBP BoE Quarterly Bulletin
- 08:30 CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
- 09:45 USD Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
- 09:45 USD Markit Composite PMI
- 09:45 USD Services PMI (Jun)
- 10:00 USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (May)
- 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Rig Count
- 15:00 USD FOMC Member Daly Speaks
- 15:30 GBP CFTC speculative net positions
Notable Earnings Reports This Week
*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available
Monday June 16
- SFUNA Fang Holdings Ads
After Market Close
Tuesday June 17
- PSN Parsons HX Hexindai ADR
- ADBE Adobe Inc. JBL Jabil Inc. LZB La-Z-Boy Incorporated CO Global Cord Blood KEQU Kewaunee Scientific CHKE Cherokee Inc.
Wednesday June 18
- WGO Winnebago Industries Inc. BKS Barnes & Noble Inc
- ORCL Oracle SCS Steelcase AOBC American Outdoor Brands AMSWA American Software Inc. – Class A
Thursday June 19
- KR Kroger Company DRI Darden Restaurants Inc. CMC Commercial Metals Company MEI Methode Electronics Inc.
- RHT Red Hat Inc. CGC Canopy Growth KFY Korn/Ferry Intl
Friday June 20
For More Earnings and estimates visit
Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.