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FEAR NOT Brave Investors :Earnings Season is Here:
New Week Ahead – Oil and Trade Wars Roll On
We closed the week with the U.S. putting tariffs on China and the Chinese retaliating, the market appears oblivious to the risk and stock markets rallied strongly after a solid U.S. jobs report. Oil still remained bid as President Trump tweeted about greedy OPEC and Iran kept shouting about evil America and it’s calls that Iran’s oil importers go to zero. The Secretary of State met again with North Korea with the North Koreans ‘insulted’. Deeper risks with less fear with investors, how does that end historically?
This week ahead we have earnings season kick off with the big banks, $JPM, $WFC, $PNC and $C back from their stress tests. Expect more trade war statements to keep us busy such as General Motors’. The weeks U.S. market data includes Fed talkers, inflation and consumer sentiment. In Europe we have Germany’s ZEW, EU IP reports and ECB minutes. In the UK we have IP, retails sales and Brexit chatter. China June trade figures come out on Thursday, very topical we might say.
–comment section below data-
Last Week’s Big Stories
- U.S. Oil Rigs Add 5 as Oil Price Remains Elevated on Iran
- June US Non Farm Payrolls +213,000K With Unemployment Higher at 4.0%
- Japan Buying Pushes Australian Coal Prices Highest Since 2012
- EIA Reports Surprise +1245k bbl Build in Crude Oil
- Big Three of Ford, GM and Chrysler Lead Auto Sales Higher
- Germany’s Ruling Coalition Back From Brink as Merkel and Seehofer Strike Deal
The Week That Was – Last Weeks Recap
US Stock Indices Performance
US Yield Curve & SPX
10 Year Yields
S&P 500
US Crude Oil (WTI)
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
The Week Ahead
Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week
Monday July 9
- All Day Holiday Brazil – The Constitutional War of 1932
- 02:00 EUR German Trade Balance (May)
- 03:00 EUR ECB’s Praet Speaks
- 03:50 GBP BoE MPC Member Broadbent Speaks
- 09:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
- 09:10 USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
- 10:00 USD CB Employment Trends Index (Jun)
- 11:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
- 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
- 15:00 USD Consumer Credit (May)
- 15:30 CFTC Speculative net positions
Tuesday July 10
- 5:00 EUR German ZEW Current Conditions (Jul)
- 5:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul)
- Tentative CNY M2 Money Stock (YoY)
- Tentative CNY New Loans
- 06:00 USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (Jun)
- Tentative GBP NIESR GDP
- 08:55 USD Redbook
- 10:00 USD JOLTs Job Openings (May)
- 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
- 12:30 EUR ECB’s Angeloni Speaks
- 13:00 USD 3-Year Note Auction
- 13:00 EUR ECB’s Lautenschlaeger Speaks
- 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
Wednesday July 11
- 03:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
- 03:30 EUR ECB’s Praet Speaks
- 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
- 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index 245.5
- 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
- 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index
- 07:20 USD OPEC Monthly Report
- 08:00 EUR ECB’s Mersch Speaks
- 08:30 USD PPI (MoM) (Jun)
- 10:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (May)
- 10:00 CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report
- 10:00 CAD BoC Rate Statement
- 10:00 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision
- 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:15 CAD BOC Press Conference
- 11:35 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
- 12:30 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
- 13:00 USD 10-Year Note Auction 2.962%
- 16:30 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Thursday July 12
- 04:00 USD IEA Monthly Report
- 04:00 CNY Outstanding Loan Growth (YoY)
- Tentative EUR Eurogroup Meetings
- 07:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
- 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
- 08:30 USD CPI (MoM) (YoY) (Jun)
- 08:30 USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
- 08:30 USD Real Earnings (MoM) (Jun)
- 09:45 USD Bloomberg Consumer Confidence
- 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
- 11:00 USD Cleveland CPI (MoM) (Jun)
- 12:00 USD WASDE Report
- 12:15 USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
- 13:00 USD 30-Year Bond Auction
- 14:00 USD Federal Budget Balance (Jun)
- 20:00 USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
- 23:00 CNY Exports (YoY) (Jun)
- 23:00 CNY Imports (YoY) (Jun)
- 23:00 CNY Trade Balance (USD) (Jun)
Friday July 13
- Tentative EUR EU Finance Ministers Meeting
- 07:00 GBP BoE MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
- 08:30 USD Export Price Index (MoM) (Jun)
- 08:30 USD Import Price Index (YoY)
- 10:00 USD Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Jul)
- 10:00 USD Michigan Consumer Expectations (Jul)
- 10:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul)
- 10:00 USD Michigan Current Conditions (Jul)
- 10:00 USD Michigan Inflation Expectations (Jul)
- 12:30 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
- 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
15:30 CFTC Speculative net positions
Notable Earnings Reports This Week
*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available
Monday July 9
- HELEN OF TROY $HELE Before Open 1.33
- ALIMENT COU-NEW $ATD After Market Close 0.70
Tuesday July 10
- PEPSICO INC $PEP Before Open 1.51
- WD 40 CO $WDFC After Market Close 1.04
- VOXX INTL CP $VOXX After Market Close -0.02
- SIMULATION PLUS $SLP After Market Close 0.12
- SARATOGA INVEST $SAR After Market Close 0.54
- EXFO INC-TS $EXF After Market Close -0.08
- EXFO INC $EXFO After Market Close -0.06
- AAR CORP $AIR After Market Close 0.52
Wednesday July 11
- MSC INDL DIRECT $MSM Before Open 1.39
- FASTENAL $FAST Before Open 0.66
- ANGIODYNAMICS $ANGO Before Open 0.21
- THESCORE INC-A $SCR After Market Close -0.01
- GOODFOOD MKT-TS FOO After Market Close -0.04
- FIRAN TEC GP-TS $FTG After Market Close 0.03
- COGECO COMMUNIC $CCA After Market Close 1.79
- BANK OF OZARKS $OZRK After Market Close 0.89
- ARITZIA INC $ATZ After Market Close 0.09
Thursday July 12
- PEAK RESORTS $SKIS Before Open 0.62
- NATL BEVERAGE $FIZZ Before Open 0.89
- COMMERCE BANCSH $CBSH Before Open 0.89
- ARTS WAY MFG $ARTW Before Open N/A
- ASPEN GROUP INC $ASPU After Market Close -0.11
Friday July 13
- CITIGROUP INC $C Before Open 1.57
- FIRST REP BK SF $FRC Before Open 1.16
- JPMORGAN CHASE $JPM Before Open 2.24
- PNC FINL SVC CP $PNC Before Open 2.58
- WELLS FARGO-NEW $WFC Before Open 1.12
Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.
Trade Smart!