Market Weekly: July 4 – 11 2020

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FEAR NOT Brave Investors

Declaration of Independance
 Strange times But remember The Joker once served as the Iranian ambassador for the United Nations.


The Week That Was:


  • Stocks had their best quarter in around 20 years, and saw even higher levels after the big beat in US jobs reports, though those gains were worn down on Covid fears by Thursday’s close.
  • The Dow ended the second quarter with a 17.8% gain, the biggest quarterly rally since the first quarter of 1987, when it ripped up 21.6%. The S&P 500 had its biggest one-quarter surge since the fourth quarter of 1998, soaring nearly 20%. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 30.6% for the quarter, its best quarterly performance since 1999.
  • Stock valuations, as measured by forward price-to-earnings ratios are near their highest level since the 2000 dot-com boom.

Stock Performance Q2 2020


  • No surprise after increased testing, weeks of protesting, people in large airconditioning indoors we have record daily U.S. cases. On Saturday Florida on Saturday reported a daily record 11,445 new coronavirus cases. The U.S. reported more than 52,000 new coronavirus cases, the highest daily total of the year.
  • There does appear to a concerted effort to put the blame on an economy reopening and miraclously the mass ongoing priotests have nothing to do with that. Take that for what it is worth. There is little mention of the younger age group in the new cases and much lower mortality rate. Fear is the feature. Use commonsense in your own protection, spreading and decision making.


  • A rise in geopolitical tensions with China and India, China in Hong kong and threats with Taiwan.
  • Russia was in the headlines mocking US LBGT rights..
  • Brexit and the EU is bubbling along.

US Politics

  • New round of polls suggest Democrats are gaining momentum ahead of the November Preseidential election. Trump’s polling deficit is larger than any incumbent since George H.W. Bush in 1992.
  • Biden has said he would seek to raise the U.S. corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, which could potentially eat into profits and weigh on stock prices

Trade Wars

  • US Economic advisor again said January’s phase one U.S. trade deal with China is expected to hold, despite concerns surrounding China’s handling of the COVID-19 outbreak.
  • In addition to rising tensions with China, the United States Trade Representative said last month that the USTR is considering a new round of tariffs on $3.1 billion in European exports from France, Germany, Spain and the U.K.


Oil and Gas

  • Oil and gasoline prices had their strongest quarter in 30 Years after negatice prices and record lows on April 20 we saw the rally of all rallies in U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures surged 91% in the three months through to end of June, the best quarterly performance for U.S. crude since the third quarter of 1990 when it soared 131% during the first Gulf War.
  • Brent crude futures were up over 80% in the second quarter. This was the best quarterly performance since the third quarter of 1990, when it gained 142%. Brent futures did not enter negative territory in late April, but did slump to its lowest level since 1999
  • Gasoline futures were the best performer, up 122.24% for the second quarter.
  • For a reality check on the Covid destruction despite these extraordinary gains both Brent and WTI futures are still down over 34% since the start of the year. Gasoline futures were the best performer, up 122.24% for the second quarter.
  • Oil also got support from Baker Hughes reported U.S. oil and natural gas rigs operating fell to an all-time low for a seventh consecutive week.

Futures June 2020 Q

Expect the Fed Stability Report warning on what happens if the pandemic worsens to be the go tto by Fed speakers (We are all watching to see if I spike aftet the Floyd protests and riots with no social distancing).

The backdrop is the Covid-19 crisis. Despite that the stockmarket is up over 40% from lows and stubborn bears and bulls alike are frustrated based on cognitive biases.

We continually focus on overcoming our biases and as the accompanying chart highlights stocks and the economy are NOT the same thing despite what we are told by our influencers and biased or selective recalls.


On the Risk Radar

Fed Warnings on Possible Medium To Long Term Risks

Fed Financial Stability Report Risks May 2020

In todays sound bite, partisan world achieving full self-awareness has many roadblocks. Constantly we are faced by new biases from everything from the economy, geopolitics and the pandemic. We are trading in a fluid, constantly evolving world. Understand and admit you have biases is step one, with that be aware of mental obstacles that can be triggered. Remember we can’t fix what we don’t know. We aren’t all doctors when it comes to cures, sources and pandemics for one. We know we are living in a brutally divided political world and the upcoming presidential election will trigger biases. For your investing (and mental health) maintaining an open mindset, diversify your influener and media sources so you can not get caught with bias inertia or blindness.

Job Losses

The reality is we are experiencing unprecedented levels of unemployment claims. The US Labor Department reported the jobless claims of over 47 million in just eleven weeks as the Coronavirus hits the economy. This sends the unemployment rate soaring to near 15%.

Yield Curve

The Fed QE infinity programme is a yield curve control policy with long government bond yields coming down. Bond supply and continued central bank resistance to more negative policy rates limits the move. Central banks have been cutting rates and adding liquidity to avoid systematic failure. Where to from here? 

November US Election

The upcoming presidential election is another risk with RealClearPolitics having President Donald Trump trailing former Vice President Joseph Biden by 8.1 points in the latest average of polls. A potential for a resurgence in Covid cases will see Trump not benefiting from an economic recovery, and as a result, that gives Biden a better chance of being elected. Biden is representative of uncertainty. Trump is likely to be pushed by Powell for more stimulus and Trump is likely to move on this with the threat of more economic damage.


Geopolitically the US-Sino rhetoric is heating up and spilling over into Hong Kong and beyond. We expect continued volatility with the engulfing uncertainty of the Coronavirus and in commodity markets, particularly in oil and other commodities, not to mention unrest in Iran, Libya and Iraq. 

Fat Tail Virus Risk

Historically bear market rallies are fast and furious, and we are at the beginning of an economic recession (depression). In 2008 we had a 20% and 25% bounce in the S&P 500 during the total 57% top to bottom price fall. For the virus we have the great unknown with medical expertise not at a consensus how the virus destruction and recovery will play out.

Will virus cases level off in late spring and vanish so things can get back to some sort of normality by late summer? Or will there be a second wave of cases during the autumn/winter, forcing new lockdowns or leading to fear and voluntary social distancing (a W-recession scenario). For how long are you immune after having had the virus, a long time or a couple of months? Will there be a vaccine and when?

Our best advice is stay rational and be prepared for many alternatives, either way. With crisis comes opportunity. From a market point of view this is not unprecedented, many other bubbles have popped with similar results. What is unprecedented is the pandemic, the mass media and social media fear mongering, the massive QE and printing and the strange era of entitlement and no responsibilty fed down from politicians to the youth of today for electoral purproses. Put all that together and we see the result.  Again this isn’t unprecendented just a different catalyst and fuel. Stay tuned. take a breath and think clearly. Oh and now we have the riots to throw on the kindling ….

Remember, nothing is as it seems.

Stay alert to the political and geopolitical shifts with the world in flux. Government policies related to the environment, trade and tech sit high on the watch list.  Political and economic agendas that Influence policy-making is top of the list. For the US it is not just external threats, including increased political tensions between countries but also internal threats highlighted by the partisan impeachment devide. 

Politics influence all, directly or indirectly.  The virus and psychological affect on domestic and trade relationships have the potential to impact growth strategies with unexpected consequences with this markets are also vulnerable.  In a  fully fledged stock mania, nothing matters until it does. That is the feral nature of greed. Is Coronavirus that dreaded black swan?

Behind it all is world wide low interest rates and QE pump priming by the world’s major central banks,  the Federal Reserve, Swiss National Bank and ECB all preached more of the same. This has just been ramped up a notch.

Meanwhile tje Fed is committed to about 50 Billion a day in repo, funds  into the system to maintain liquidity, in its not QE4 repo program.The consumer had been keeping the economy robust. How will they act to alleviate the panic of the market drop, this is essential given the security of the repos they have out.

“Negative yields on long-dated government securities are more reflective of distorted market conditions than of stronger sovereign credit profiles, Fitch Ratings says. Lower interest service costs support sovereign creditworthiness, but this must be weighed against the impact of the economic conditions leading to lower yields and historically high government debt levels in a number of countries.- Fitch”

Akio Morita mistakes

The Week Ahead – Have a Trading Plan

The week begins with the ISM nonmanufacturing data Monday and ends with PPI Ffriday for US data. With the latest Covid worries halt any rebound in the U.S. economy ? Improvements in some economic indicators, such as home sales, manufacturing activity and another larger than expected bounce in employment data last month, have bolstered investor confidence and helped extend the rally in stocks. Support in markets comes from the Fed’s balance sheet which has ballooned to $7.2 trillion, and last Wednesday the central bank committed to monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities.

Again Weekly jobless claims will be important Thursday to see if there’s a drop in continuing clams, after May’s employment report showed a surprising record gain of 2.5 million jobs One component of Congress’ fiscal aid, a $600 per week supplement to unemployment insurance payments, is set to expire at the end of July.

Will the markets remain fixated on the COVID-19 news such as the infections count update, vacinations and the like?

 There is some important data in the week ahead,

  • Monday: US Services PMI, ISM nonmanufacturing
  • Tuesday: US Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, JOLTS, Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin on panel, API Oil Inventories
  • Wednesday: US Mortgage Applications, EIA Crude Oil Invemtories, Atlanta Fed’s Bostic, Consumer credit
  • Thursday: US Weekly jobless claims, Wholesale trade, EIA Natural Gas Storage Atlanta Fed’s Bostic
  • Friday:US PPI, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count and CFTC Speculative net positions

For emerging markets the high US dollar means the Fragile 5 continue to shake. Argentina and Turkey are red letter risks. Voters will also be going to the polls in Poland, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand this year.

Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask? 

If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have trade wars.


Analysts expect overall S&P 500 profits to drop by 12.8%, according to IBES data from Refinitiv,  a far steeper decline than the 4.7% drop projected as of April 1. Given that is a known investors (and algos) will focus pn the conference calls and outlooks.  Everyone is expecting the worse. We will see critical updates on production in coronavirus impacted regions and if there is extended halting of operations weighing on multi-nationals.

Last week we heard from Micron Technology, Inc. MU, FedEx Corporation FDX and General Mills GIS

We start off on Monday with earnings from:

Tuesday Earnings Include: <brPaychex, Levi’s Straus 

Wednesday Earnings Include: Bed Bath & Beyond

Thursday Earnings Include: Walgreens Boots Alliance

Friday Earnings Include:

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Trade Imbalances IMF

Italy CDS
Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week’s Big Stories

The Week That Was – Last Weeks Recap



Stock Markets

US Major Stock Indices

 US Stock Indices Performance

 US Indices W 7 3 2020


  • The Nasdaq Composite hit a record high, climbing 0.5% to 10,207.63.
  • The Nasdaq posited its best weekly performance since May 8, jumping 4.6% this week.
  • U.S. markets were closed on Friday for the July Fourth holiday


  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 92.39 points higher, or 0.4%, at 25,827.36.
  • Boeing contributed to the gains, rising 0.6% after $BA completed recertification flights for its grounded 737 Max jet.
  • The Dow rose 3.3% this week and the S&P 500 climbed 4% in the same time period.
  • It was the Dow and S&P 500′s biggest weekly gains since June 5.


  • The S&P 500 gained 0.5% to end the day at 3,130.01.
  • The S&P 500 gained  4% for the week
  • Thursday’s gains led to strong weekly performances for the major averages.
  • The S&P 500′s biggest weekly gains since June 5.

Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

Top 5 stocks W 7 3 2020

S&P 500 Index via @KnovaWave

Impulse on impulse .. $SPX corrected the impulse down as expected at a completion of a C Wave or a Wave 1. Very similar to the initial move down in March. continued with it’s sharp move,

From there we closed Friday down sharply to test Kijun as Chikou rebalanced. Important to note the high was a retest of that breakdown and MM +1/8 (yellow) our initial target with a rebalanced Chikou. The 3nd week above the 200dma swayed the balance. The balance from sharp reversal after the initial 3 wave down from the SPX wave 5 extension as Covid19 fed impulse accelerated under the tenkan. From there we had seen the ABC or 1-2-3 spinning around the 61.8% of the move. Support began at the October 2019 lows

A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages.  Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in.

SPX D 7 3 2020 

Friday’s quad expiration is a reminder that one violent rebalance in the SPX, comes another after markets take a breath. Gann called this the harmony of the markets or natures way.   Keep an eye on the putcall ratio with recognition to the sheer size of contracts  AND keep in mind the stimulus distortion  The spit per channel fractal and Adams rule launched back over the cloud where we were encased AND we are back testing it.  Watch Chickou rebalance off the 3 waves post spit.  Weekly tenkan key, Kijun and tenkan kisses to be watched. Watch if a spit or clear break support as chickou rebalances
 SPX W 7 3 2020

Semiconductors ETF – SMH

SMH W 7 3 2020

 Apple $AAPL

( Leading underlying strength of US Indices)

AAPL W 7 3 2020

Amazon $AMZN

AMZN W 7 3 2020


Fixed Interest

10 Year Treasury Note

TNX W 7 3 2020

Energy and Commodities

US Crude Oil (WTI)

WTI completed it’s A or 1 this week with impulse after its move higher after the violent wave 5 down had accelerated through the Tenkan 50 dma cross breaking the recent flag – we retested that this week The reversal had been a sustained impulse off the tenkan which also gave away – that is now resistance.   Key is crowd behavior to help tell the story, ignorance into a slew of resistance. We watch ABC corrections from here.

WTI D 7 3 2020

 WTI has again exhibited extreme crowd behavior, a series of fractals. expected in algorithm dominated price action.  We have completed 5 waves as marked, from here we watch 3 develop to confrm. These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have 50wma and Murrey Math time and price.

 WTI W 7 3 2020

 US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

US Natural Gas closed right under the kijun with rejection of Tenkan/50dma break locked in the flagging formation since the May peak. Consistent failed breaks despite the strength of spitting the previous low and -2/8 with an island reversal to test the Kijun and downtrend line but fell back to Tenkan The big question is was that a completed move down there or a 3? Support at cloud.

NG D 7 3 2020

Natty ran under the weekly tenkan but failed to run lower Above weekly Kijun and 50wma. Talking fractals, remember the tenkan/kijun kiss of death brought it down from the $2 range. Much work here churning away.

.NG W 7 3 2020

  Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

BDI W 7 3 2020


Precious Metals


Gold exudes strength after it back tested the previous wave 3 after finally cracked the Tenkan after correcting in 3 waves from 1556 to Murrey Math +3/8. In sight of the intraday high of $1765.43 reached on May 18. We have overcome the negative divergence between the weekly chikou, Silver spread and the recent highs. Support Tenkan & Kijun. From there does the 5 play out? Watch Fibs and chikou.
 Gold W 7 3 2020


Silver  did a fractal of the sharp C up to breakdown level above the cloud fed by divergence from gold reverting. no  Silver reverseds with much more violent impulse than gold . Given that we have to repsect this is a iii  but  here is also a chance this is an A

Silver W 7 3 2020 

Currency Markets

Australian Dollar – AUDUSD

Aussie dollar continues higher after it competed 5 waves in emotive  fashion. with vigor spitting the 100% panic muster. It has closed over the 50 Wma in 5 waves Resistance cloud is a long way off.  Support Tenkan and Kijun. From here we watch for 2 or X

AUD W 7 3 2020

New Zealand Dollar – NZDUSD

The Kiwi mirrored the AUD and has closed over the panic breakdown (0%) correcting all of the panic muster wave. We are now above the Tenkan, which is pivotal. Resistance 50wma

NZD W 7 3 2020

Canadian Dollar – USDCAD

The Loonie continues to correct in ABC after spitting the 261% Fib & Weekly 8/8 after 5 waves lower. We closed at the old 100% 61.8% confluence. Use Fib s for support and resisitance until Tenkan and Kijun catch up, 

CAD W 7 3 2020

 Euro – EURUSD

The Euro tested and held both the channel and cloud spits after so many false breaks to close at its best level since the BRexit spike. We are still in 3 waves so we need to see development for continuation. Resistance is Fibs as marked.  Watch for impulse off Chikou rebalance and Kijun above. Again governed by EURGBP and Bund volatility. 

EUR W 7 3 2020

 EuroPound – EURGBP

Back testing top of outer band and tenkan of Brexit. Johnson price reaction.after its classic ABC out of failure following the X wave. Tenkan will give us a clue if normalcy is returning to the channel trade.

EURGBP W 7 3 2020

 Japanese Yen – USDJPY

Classic channel trade, has been a series of failures and sharp bounces after X led 3 wave panic. Any change will come from the weekly Kijun Tenkan kiss. Use your Murrey 6/8 0/8 grid for now. #EURJPY #AUDJPY will determine risk on/off

JPY W 7 3 2020

 Mexican Peso USDMXN

The Peso has been correcting in ABC since it collapsed and spat 261% right back to the 100% Fib  We have seen violent moves with outisde uncertainty from oil and COVID19. Use the Gann octave and the extension fibs to help measure the noise. 

MXN W 7 3 2020

  Turkish Lire USDTRY

USDTRY after completing the large 5 waves corrected back to the channel acceleration point and finished testing Tenkan. Alternative is we are still in Wave 5 and this is another 1- Kijun support well above cloud  Impulse is needed to pull away from here.  Keep an eye on geopolitical risk factors.

 TRY W 7 3 2020


Nothing new for Bitcoin, more of the same as it continues to falter after 61.8% spit. Well under the tenkan and kijun. Needs to test downtrend for higher correction. Use your MM rules as algos control the herd here, support is the cloud – we said be wary of sharp ABC, 1-2 moves.

BTC W 7 3 2020


The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Sunday, July 5, 2020

  • 20:30 HKD Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
  • 21:00 AUD MI Inflation Gauge (MoM)
  • 21:00 NZD ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM)
  • 21:30 AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM)

Monday, July 6, 2020

  • 02:00 EUR German Factory Orders (MoM) (May)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) (May)
  • 03:30 EUR IHS Markit Construction PMI (Jun)
  • 04:30 GBP Construction PMI (Jun)
  • 04:30 GBP Housing Equity Withdrawal (QoQ)
  • 04:30 EUR Sentix Investor Confidence (Jul)
  • 05:00 EUR Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
  • 06:30 EUR Spanish Consumer Confidence
  • 09:45 USD Markit Composite PMI (Jun)
  • 09:45 USD Services PMI (Jun)
  • 10:00 USD CB Employment Trends Index (Jun)
  • 10:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
  • 10:30 CAD BoC Business Outlook Survey
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
  • 15:30 USD CFTC speculative net positions
  • 18:00 NZD NZIER Business Confidence (Q2)
  • 18:00 NZD NZIER QSBO Capacity Utilization (Q2)
  • 18:30 AUD AIG Services Index (Jun)
  • 19:00 KRW Current Account (May)
  • 19:30 JPY Household Spending (MoM) (May)

Tuesday, July 7, 2020

  • 00:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jul)
  • 00:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
  • 01:00 JPY Coincident Indicator (MoM) (May)
  • 01:00 JPY Leading Index (MoM) (May)
  • 02:00 EUR German Industrial Production (MoM) (May)
  • 02:45 EUR French Current Account (May)
  • 02:45 EUR French Trade Balance (May)
  • 03:30 GBP Halifax House Price Index (YoY)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
  • 04:00 CNY FX Reserves (USD)
  • 04:30 GBP Labour Productivity (Q1)
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM)
  • 10:00 USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
  • 10:00 USD JOLTs Job Openings (May)
  • 10:00 CAD Ivey PMI (Jun)
  • 11:20 NZD GlobalDairyTrade Price Index
  • 13:00 USD 3-Year Note Auction
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • Tentative USD Treasury Department Report
  • 19:50 JPY Bank Lending (YoY) (Jun)
  • 21:30 AUD RBA Chart Pack Release

Wednesday, July 8, 2020

  • 01:00 JPY Economy Watchers Current Index (Jun)
  • 01:45 CHF Unemployment Rate (Jun)
  • 05:00 EUR EU Economic Forecasts
  • Tentative GBP BoE MPC Treasury Committee Hearings
  • 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
  • 08:15 CAD Housing Starts (Jun)
  • 09:30 USD Seevol Cushing Storage Report
  • 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 13:01 USD 10-Year Note Auction
  • 15:00 USD Consumer Credit (May)
  • 19:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance (Jun)
  • 19:50 JPY Core Machinery Orders (MoM) (May)
  • 19:50 JPY PPI (YoY) (Jun)
  • 21:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence
  • 21:30 AUD Home Loans (MoM)
  • 21:30 AUD Invest Housing Finance (MoM)
  • 21:30 CNY CPI (YoY) (Jun)
  • 21:30 CNY CPI (MoM) (Jun)
  • 21:30 CNY PPI (YoY) (Jun)

Thursday, July 9, 2020

  • All Day Holiday Brazil – Constitution Day
  • 02:00 EUR German Current Account
  • 02:00 EUR German Trade Balance (May)
  • 02:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY)
  • 04:30 GBP BoE FPC Meeting Minutes
  • 05:30 ZAR Gold Production (YoY) (May)
  • 05:30 ZAR Mining Production (May)
  • Tentative EUR Eurogroup Meetings
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
  • 08:30 CAD Building Permits (MoM) (May)
  • 10:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM)
  • 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
  • 13:01 USD 30-Year Bond Auction
  • 18:45 NZD Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
  • 19:50 JPY PPI (MoM) (Jun)

Friday, July 10, 2020

  • 02:45 EUR French Industrial Production (MoM) (May)
  • 04:00 USD IEA Monthly Report
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Industrial Production (MoM) (May)
  • 08:30 USD PPI (MoM) (Jun)
  • 08:30 CAD Employment Change (Jun)
  • 08:30 CAD Full Employment Change (Jun)
  • 08:30 CAD Part Time Employment Change (Jun)
  • 08:30 CAD Participation Rate (Jun)
  • 08:30 CAD Unemployment Rate (Jun)
  • 12:00 USD WASDE Report
  • 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Rig Count
  • 15:30 USD CFTC speculative net positions

Saturday, July 11, 2020

Stock Buyback Watch



Note these charts, opinons news and estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!

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