Market Weekly: Jan 20 2019 – Jan 26 2019

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 MLK Dream

FEAR NOT Brave Investors

Dream, Trade Wars, Shutdowns and Flexible Fed

That chaos from the Apple warning. seems so long ago – supsiciously timed and denied China trade announcements came out at just the right time to push stock markets and even oil higher this week. Bank earnings were mixed and Schlumberger gave us a timely look at the O&G sector. Europe continues to flounder with Brexit not helping their cause as we saw with weak industrial production reports. The US government has shut down for 3 weeks and the division between the Demcocrats and Trump over collusion and more only grew louder. 

The biggie has been change of the Fed’s tone has this far put a bid under the markets with the hope of a trade deal, at what point does scepticism outweigh hope?

What else has changed, we see still have the EU budget to watch in Italy, the Marcon mess, the Brexit bungle and U.S. politics making for a real life black comedy. Emerging markets continue to overhang, particularly the Fragile 5 and Argentina with the new year normally a busy time for sovereign debt issuers. Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance.

If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it.  Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

The week ahead begins we have a slew of PMI’s from Asia, Europe and the Americas, we also have rate decisions from the ECB, BOJ and BOK.

Focus on your self and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have China and the U.S.trade wars. 

Earnings wise we had the major banks report last week; Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, PNC and Wells Fargo  plus Netflix, and Schlumberger. The week ahead we get Wynn Resorts, WYNN, TD Ameritrade, AMTD, Travelers, TRV , Halliburton, HAL , United Technologies Corp. UTX . Johnson & Johnson JNJ, IBM, P&G, PG, Raytheon, RTN, Ford, F, Celegene, CELG, Freeport-McMoRan, FCX, Texas Instruments, TXN American Airline AAL,  Southwest LUV,  Bristol-Myers Squibb BMY, E*TRADE ETFC, Intel INTC, Starbucks, SBUX. Intuitive Surgical ISRG, and Colgate-Palmolive CL

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Italy CDS
Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week’s Big Stories

The Week That Was – Last Weeks Recap

Earnings

 

Stock Markets

Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

 MW Top 5 1 18 19

 Which Stocks Moved US ETF’s Last Week

 MW Top 5 ETF 1 18 19

 US Stock Indices Performance

 MW US Perf 1 18 19

  S&P 500

 MW SPX W 1 18 19

  Apple $AAPL

 MW AAPL W 1 18 19

Amazon $AMZN 

MW AMZN D 1 18 19 

 

Fixed Interest

10 Year Treasury Note  

MW TNX W 1 18 19

Energy and Commodities

US Crude Oil (WTI)

 MW WTI W 1 18 19

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

 MW NG W 1 18 19

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

  MW BDI W 1 18 19

Currency Markets

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

 MW AUDUSD W 1 18 19

 New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

MW NZDUSD W 1 18 19 

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

MW USDCAD W 1 18 19 

Euro (EURUSD)

 MW EURUSD W 1 18 19

EuroPound (EURGBP)

 MW EURGBP D 1 18 19

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

MW USDJPY W 1 18 19 

 Mexican Peso (USDMXN)

 MW USDMXN D 1 18 19

Turkish Lire (USDTRY)

 MW USDTRY D 1 18 19

Bitcoin

  MW BTC W 1 18 19

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Data that could be delayed by the US Government Shutdown

via @Yogi_Chan

Mon Jan 21

  • All Day Holiday United States – Martin Luther King, Jr. Day
  • 02:00 EUR German PPI (MoM) (Dec)
  • Tentative EUR Eurogroup Meetings
  • Tentative EUR German Buba Monthly Report
  • Tentative GBP U.K. Prime Minister May Speaks
  • Tentative USD WASDE Report 

Tues Jan 22

  • 00:00 JPY BoJ Core CPI (YoY)
  • 04:00 EUR Spanish Trade Balance
  • 04:30 GBP Employment Change
  • 04:30 GBP Unemployment Rate (Nov) 
  • 05:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan)
  • 08:30 CAD Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Nov)
  • 08:30 CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Nov)
  • 10:00 USD Existing Home Sales (Dec)
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
  • 16:45 NZD CPI (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 18:30 AUD MI Leading Index (MoM)
  • 18:50 JPY Trade Balance (Dec)
  • Tentative JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
  • Tentative JPY BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)
  • Tentative JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision
  • 23:30 JPY All Industries Activity Index (MoM)

Wed Jan 23

  • Tentative JPY BoJ Press Conference
  • 02:45 EUR French Business Survey (Jan)
  • 04:30 GBP BoE MPC Member Broadbent Speaks
  • 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index
  • 08:30 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
  • 08:30 CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM) (YoY)
  • 09:00 USD House Price Index (MoM) (Nov)
  • 10:00 USD Richmond Manufacturing Index (Jan)
  • 10:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (Jan)
  • Tentative USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 18:50 JPY Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks
  • 19:30 AUD Employment Report (Dec)
  • 19:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
  • 20:00 KRW Interest Rate Decision (Jan) 

Thur Jan 24

  • 00:00 JPY Leading Index 
  • 02:45 EUR French Business Survey (Jan)
  • 03:15 EUR French Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
  • 03:15 EUR French Markit Composite PMI (Jan)
  • 03:15 EUR French Services PMI (Jan)
  • 03:30 EUR German Composite PMI (Jan)
  • 03:30 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
  • 03:30 EUR German Services PMI (Jan)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance Non-EU (Dec)
  • 04:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
  • 04:00 EUR Markit Composite PMI (Jan)
  • 04:00 EUR Services PMI (Jan)
  • 07:45 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jan)
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 2
  • 08:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
  • 09:45 USD Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 
  • 09:45 USD Markit Composite PMI (Jan)
  • 09:45 USD Services PMI (Jan)
  • 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
  • 11:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 11:00 USD KC Fed Composite Index (Jan)
  • 11:00 USD KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan)
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
  • 18:30 JPY Tokyo CPI (YoY) (Jan) 

Fri Jan 25

  • All Day Holiday Brazil – São Paulo City Anniversary
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish PPI (YoY)
  • 04:00 EUR German Business Expectations
  • 04:00 EUR German Current Assessment
  • 04:00 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index
  • 04:30 GBP Gross Mortgage Approvals
  • Tentative USD Cap Goods Ship Non Defense Ex Air (MoM)
  • 08:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec)
  • Tentative USD New Home Sales
  • 11:00 CAD Budget Balance (Nov)
  • 12:00 EUR France Jobseekers
  • 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count

Notable Earnings Reports This Week

*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available

Monday Jan 21

Before Open

After Close

  • ENTERPRISE FINL EFSC FIRST DEFIANCE FDEF LOGITECH INTL LOGI

Tuesday Jan 22

Before Open

  • ALLEGHENY TECH ATI FIFTH THIRD BK FITB FLAGSTAR BANCP FBC FNB CORP FNB GATX CORP GATX HALLIBURTON CO HAL HOMESTREET INC HMST JOHNSON & JOHNS JNJ MB FINANCL INC MBFI MERCANTILE BANK MBWM NEW ORIENTAL ED EDU OFG BANCORP OFG OLD NATL BCP ONB PEOPL BNCP-OHIO PEBO PETMED EXPRESS PETS PROLOGIS INC PLD SOUTHWEST GA FN SGB STANLEY B&D INC SWK STEEL DYNAMICS STLD TRAVELERS COS TRV UBS GROUP AG UBS UNION BANKSHARS UBSH

After Close

  • ACCURAY INC ARAY BANKFINANCIAL BFIN CAPITAL ONE FIN COF CONMED CORP CNMD FB FINANCIAL CP FBK FIRST MIDWST BK FMBI GREAT SOUTH BCP GSBC HOPE BANCORP HOPE INTERACTIVE BRK IBKR INTL BUS MACH IBM K12 INC LRN LEGACY TX FINL LTXB NAVIENT CORP NAVI RENASANT CORP RNST SERVISFIRST BCS SFBS SIMMONS FIRST A SFNC TD AMERITRADE AMTD TRIUMPH BANCORP TBK UNITED FIN BCP UBNK UTD CMNTY BK/GA UCBI UTD COMM FIN CP UCFC WINTRUST FINL WTFC WSFS FINL CORP WSFS ZIONS BANCORP ZION

Wednesday Jan 23

Before Open

  • ABBOTT LABS ABT AGF MGMT -CL B AGF AMPHENOL CORP-A APH ASML HOLDING NV ASML BANKUNITED INC BKU COMCAST CORP A CMCSA COMMNTY BK SYS CBU KIMBERLY CLARK KMB LSI INDUSTRIES LYTS MARINE PRODUCTS MPX MARINEMAX INC HZO NORTHERN TRUST NTRS POPULAR INC BPOP PROCTER & GAMBL PG PROGRESSIVE COR PGR ROLLINS INC ROL RPC INC RES SHARPS COMPLIAN SMED TE CONNECT-LTD TEL TELEDYNE TECH TDY UTD TECHS CORP UTX WATERS CORP WAT

After Close

  • ADTRAN INC ADTN ASPEN TECH INC AZPN BANCORPSOUTH BK BXS BERKSHIRE HILLS BHLB BRIGGS & STRATT BGG CATHAY GENL BCP CATY CDN PAC RLWY CP CDN PAC RLWY-TS CP CITRIX SYS INC CTXS COHEN&STRS INC CNS COSTAMARE INC CMRE CROWN CASTLE CCI CVB FINL CVBF EQUITY BANCSHRS EQBK F5 NETWORKS INC FFIV FIRST FIN BC-OH FFBC FIRST INTRNT BC INBK FORD MOTOR CO F FRANKLIN FNL NW FSB HEXCEL CORP HXL LAM RESEARCH LRCX LAS VEGAS SANDS LVS LIVE OAK BNCSH LOB NEXTGEN HLTHCR NXGN NOVAGOLD RES-TS NG NOVAGOLD RSRCS NG NVE CORP NVEC PTC INC PTC RELIANT BANCORP RBNC SL GREEN REALTY SLG SLM CORP SLM STERLING BANCP STL TERADYNE INC TER TEXAS CAP BCSHS TCBI TEXAS INSTRS TXN THESCORE INC-A SCR TRUSTMARK CP TRMK UMPQUA HLDGS CP UMPQ UNIVEST CORP PA UVSP UTD RENTALS INC URI VARIAN MEDICAL VAR XILINX INC XLNX

Thursday Jan 24

Before Open

  • AMER AIRLINES AAL AMER ELEC PWR AEP AMER RIVER BSH AMRB APPLD INDL TECH AIT AVX CORP AVX BANC OF CA INC BANC BRISTOL-MYERS BMY COLUMBIA BK SYS COLB CONNECTONE BCP CNOB DELUXE CORP DLX DOVER DOWNS GAM DDE DOVER MOTORSPRT DVD EAST WEST BC EWBC FREEPT MC COP-B FCX GRAINGER W W GWW GREAT WSTRN BCP GWB HERITAGE FIN CP HFWA HUNTINGTON BANC HBAN INTL SPEEDWAY ISCA INTL SPEEDWAY-B ISCB JETBLUE AIRWAYS JBLU MAKEMYTRIP LTD MMYT MCCORMICK & CO MKC MCCORMICK -COM MKC.V MERIDIAN BIOSCI VIVO NEUROMETRIX INC NURO OLD REP INTL ORI ROGERS COM B-TS RCI ROGERS COMM CLB RCI SOUTHWEST AIR LUV STMICROELECTRON STM TAL EDUCATN-ADR TAL TEXTRON INC TXT UNION PAC CORP UNP WEBSTER FINL CP WBS WEST BANCORP WTBA

After Close

  • AGILYSYS INC AGYS ALASKA AIR GRP ALK ASSOC BANC CORP ASB AVNET AVT BANCORP BNK/THE TBBK BYLINE BANCORP BY CAPSTAR FIN HLD CSTR CAROLINA FIN CP CARO CUSTOMERS BANCP CUBI DIME COMM BNCSH DCOM DISCOVER FIN SV DFS E TRADE FINL CP ETFC FEDERATED INVST FII FIRST BK HAM NJ FRBA FIRST HAWAIIAN FHB FIRST WESTRN FN MYFW GLACIER BANCORP GBCI HILLTOP HLDGS HTH INTEL CORP INTC INTUITIVE SURG ISRG LANTRONIX INC LTRX MIDLAND STATES MSBI NATIONAL BK HLD NBHC NORFOLK SOUTHRN NSC OCEANFIRST FINL OCFC ORIGIN BANCORP OBNK QCR HLDGS INC QCRH RESMED INC RMD SB FINANCIAL GP SBFG SEACOAST BKNG A SBCF STARBUCKS CORP SBUX SVB FINL GP SIVB TESSCO TECH INC TESS WESTERN ALLIANC WAL WESTERN DIGITAL WDC

Friday Jan 25

Before Open

  • ABBVIE INC ABBV AIR PRODS & CHE APD AMERIS BANCORP ABCB COLGATE PALMOLI CL D R HORTON INC DHI ERICSSON LM ADR ERIC HILL-ROM HLDGS HRC IBERIABANK CORP IBKC LEAR CORPORATN LEA MOOG INC A MOG.A MOOG INC B MOG.B NEXTERA EGY PTR NEP NEXTERA ENERGY NEE SYNCHRONY FIN SYF

After Close

  • Nil

Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!  

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