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FEAR NOT Brave Investors :
Banks Earnings, Trade Wars, Shutdowns and Flexible Fed
Week 2 of 2019 gave us a calmer market after the chaos from the Apple warning. we saw stock markets continue to rally on the hopes of a flexible and friendly Fed with WTI closing the week over $50 also. However the US government is shut down for 2 weeks and the division between the Demcocrats and Trump over collusion only grew louder. Bank earnings kick in next week with the focus to shift there.
The change of the Fed’s tone has this far put a bid under the markets with the hope of a trade deal, at what point does scepticism outweigh hope?
What else has changed, we see still have the EU budget to watch in Italy, the Marcon mess, the Brexit bungle and U.S. politics making for a real life black comedy. Emerging markets continue to overhang, particularly the Fragile 5 and Argentina with the new year normally a busy time for sovereign debt issuers. Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance.
If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.
The week ahead begins
Focus on your self and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have China and the U.S.trade wars.
Earnings wise we have the major banks; Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, PNC and Wells Fargo also Alcoa, American Express, CSX, Delta Airlines, Netflix, Schlumberger, United Continental, UnitedHealth Group and VF Corp all reporting this week.
-comment section below data-
Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar
Last Week’s Big Stories
- U.S. Oil Rigs Fall 4 As Canada Adds Back 83
- EIA Reports Draw of -87 Bcf in Natural Gas Storage
- Pokemon Go Maker Niantic Raises $190 million For Harry Potter Game
- Bank of Canada Holds Interest Rate at 1.75%, Oil Fall Material Effect
- US Crude Oil Draws With Huge Gasoline and Distillates Builds
- IBM Unwraps New GRAF Weather Forecasting System at CES 2019
- LNG Weekly – Liquid Natural Gas Export Monitor
The Week That Was – Last Weeks Recap
Stock Markets
Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*
Which Stocks Moved US ETF’s Last Week
US Stock Indices Performance
S&P 500
Apple $AAPL
Amazon $AMZN
Fixed Interest
10 Year Treasury Note 
Energy and Commodities
US Crude Oil (WTI)
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
Currency Markets
Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)
New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)
Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)
Euro (EURUSD)
EuroPound (EURGBP)
Japanese Yen (USDJPY)
Mexican Peso (USDMXN)
Turkish Lire (USDTRY)
Bitcoin
The Week Ahead
Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week
Data that could be delayed by the US Government Shutdown
via @Yogi_Chan
Mon Jan 14
- All Day Holiday Japan – Coming of Age (Adults’) Day
- Tentative CNY FDI
- 02:00 EUR German WPI (MoM) (Dec)
- 05:00 EUR Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov)
- Tentative CNY Trade Balance (USD) (Dec)
- Tentative USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
- 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
- Tentative USD WASDE Report
- 16:00 NZD NZIER Business Confidence (Q4)
- 16:00 NZD NZIER QSBO Capacity Utilization (Q4)
Tues Jan 15
- 01:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY)
- 01:30 EUR French GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
- 02:45 EUR French CPI (MoM) (Dec)
- 02:45 EUR French Government Budget Balance (Nov)
- 03:00 EUR German GDP Annual
- 03:00 EUR Spanish CPI (MoM) (Dec)
- 04:30 ZAR Gold Production (YoY) (Nov)
- 04:30 ZAR Mining Production (Nov)
- Tentative GBP UK Parliament vote on Brexit deal
- 05:00 EUR Trade Balance (Nov)
- Tentative USD Trade Balance
- 08:30 USD PPI (MoM) (Dec)
- 08:30 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jan)
- 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM)
- Tentative NZD GlobalDairyTrade Price Index
- 10:00 USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
- 13:00 USD FOMC Member George Speaks
- 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
- 18:30 AUD MI Leading Index (MoM)
- 18:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment
- 18:50 JPY Core Machinery Orders (MoM) (Nov)
- 18:50 JPY PPI (MoM) (Dec)
- 20:30 CNY House Prices (YoY) (Dec)
- 23:30 JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM)
Wed Jan 16
- 02:00 EUR German CPI (MoM) (Dec)
- 04:30 GBP PPI (MoM) (Dec)
- 04:30 GBP CPI (MoM) (Dec)
- 05:00 EUR Italian CPI (MoM) (Dec)
- 05:40 EUR German 30-Year Bund Auction
- 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
- 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
- 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
- 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index
- 08:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
- 08:30 USD Export Price Index (MoM) (Dec)
- 08:30 USD Import Price Index (MoM) (Dec)
- 10:00 USD Business Inventories (MoM) (Nov)
- Tentative USD Factory Orders (MoM)
- 10:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index (Jan)
- 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
- 14:00 USD Beige Book 16:00
- 16:00 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions including Swaps (Nov)
- 18:30 USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
- 18:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Jan)
- Tentative AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM)
- Tentative CNY GDP (YoY) (Q4)
- 21:00 CNY NBS Press Conference
Thur Jan 17
- 04:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance (Nov)
- 05:00 EUR CPI (MoM) (Dec)
- 06:00 USD OPEC Monthly Report
- 06:00 EUR ECB’s Lautenschlaeger Speaks
- 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
- 08:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan)
- 08:30 CAD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
- 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
- 10:45 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
- 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
- 13:00 USD 10-Year TIPS Auction
- 16:30 NZD Business NZ PMI (Dec)
- 18:30 JPY National Core CPI (YoY) (Dec)
- Tentative AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM)
- 23:30 JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (Nov)
- 23:30 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov)
Fri Jan 18
- 04:00 USD IEA Monthly Report
- 04:00 EUR Current Account (Nov)
- 04:30 GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec)
- 08:30 CAD CPI (YoY) (Dec)
- 09:05 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
- 09:15 USD Capacity Utilization Rate (Dec)
- 09:15 USD Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec)
- 10:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan)
- 11:00 USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
- 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Notable Earnings Reports This Week
*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available
Monday Jan 14
Before Open
- CITIGROUP INC C POLARITY TE INC PTE SHAW COMMS-CL B SJR SHAW COMM-TS SJR
After Close
- GOODFOOD MKT-TS FOO
Tuesday Jan 15
Before Open
- DELTA AIR LINES DAL FIRST REP BK SF FRC IHS MARKIT LTD INFO JPMORGAN CHASE JPM SYNOVUS FINL CP SNV UNITEDHEALTH GP UNH WELLS FARGO-NEW WFC
After Close
- FULTON FINL FULT HANMI FINL CP HAFC PINNACLE FIN PT PNFP UNITED CONT HLD UAL
Wednesday Jan 16
Before Open
- BANK OF AMER CP BAC BANK OF NY MELL BK BLACKROCK INC BLK COMERICA INC CMA GOLDMAN SACHS GS PNC FINL SVC CP PNC US BANCORP USB
After Close
- ALCOA CORP AA CSX CORP CSX EAGLE BCP INC EGBN FULLER(HB) CO FUL HANCOCK WHITNEY HWC PLEXUS CORP PLXS
Thursday Jan 17
Before Open
- BB&T CORP BBT COMMERCE BANCSH CBSH FASTENAL FAST HOME BANCSHARES HOMB INSTEEL INDS IIIN KEYCORP NEW KEY M&T BANK CORP MTB MGIC INVSTMT CP MTG MORGAN STANLEY MS PPG INDS INC PPG SANDY SPRING SASR WNS HLDGS-ADR WNS
After Close
- AMER EXPRESS CO AXP ATLASSIAN CP-A TEAM BANK OZK OZK BRIGHT SCHL-ADR BEDU ENTEGRA FINL CP ENFC HUNT (JB) TRANS JBHT INDEP BK MASS INDB NETFLIX INC NFLX PEOPLES UTD FIN PBCT PREFERRED BANK PFBC
Friday Jan 18
Before Open
- CITIZENS FIN GP CFG FIRST HRZN NATL FHN KANSAS CITY SOU KSU REGIONS FINL CP RF SCHLUMBERGER LT SLB STATE ST CORP STT SUNTRUST BKS STI V F CORP VFC WIPRO LTD-ADR WIT
After Close
- Nil
Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.
Trade Smart!