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FEAR NOT Brave Investors
SOTU, Year of The Pig, Venezuela and Central Banks
This week we saw the Fed basically say the economy is not strong enough to raise rates, the market cheered then we had strong PMI and jobs numbers so is the rate talk just about the stock markets as we suspect? Furthermore the previous month’s jobs number was downgraded around 100k and that barely got a mention so how much do we place on January’s report? We get Chairman Powell and other Fed Speakers to enlighten us the week ahead.
POTUS will make his SOTU this week and no doubt the partisan meters will be on bright red, with more and more political uncertainty in the US this is not a stable picture. Reality tells us the risk on is all about FOMO, China who bailed out the West post GFC is not improving economically, that is lost in the trade war bytes. Brexit is an inconclusive mess, we are back to touting high PE, or no PE stocks such as Facebook and Tesla.
We have seen earnings from Exxon, Chevron, Halliburton and Schlumberger all pointing to higher production, natural gas prices are getting near 50% of what they were a month ago despite the Polar Vortex while WTI trades at $55 with Venezuela and a fragmented OPEC as the rationale. The market has risk on, despite the backdrop and crash of 6 weeks ago.
Chinese Vice Premier Liu headed to the United States last week with 30-member delegation for the next round of trade negotiations, and did we see anything substantial out of it? This year is The Year of The Pig, appropriate in more ways than one with the continual dismissing of market risk.
Emerging markets have bounced with everything else since December but it’s not just the the Fragile 5 that we should keep an eye on. Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. This week we have a slew of Central Bank Meetings that we should listen to, the obvious the BoE and RBA but also we have India, The Philippines, Poland, Mexico, Romania, the Czech Republic and Brazil out.
If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.
The week ahead will focus be much thinner with the Chinese Lunar New Year closing China for the week. Focus will be on the SOTUS, Fed, political snipes and trade war stories and the Services PMI in a light week.
Focus on your self and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have China and the U.S.trade wars.
Earnings wise we had Tech names Amazon, AMD, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft plus Boeing, Caterpillar, General Electric, Honeywell, SAP, Tesla, Conoco, Royal Dutch, Valero, Exxon Mobil and Chevron. This week we here from about 90 S&P 500 companies including Alphabet (GOOGL), Clorox (CLX), Gilead Sciences (GILD), and Seagate Technology (STX) on Monday. Tuesday sees Anadarko (APC), Walt Disney (DIS), Snap (SNAP), Viacom (VIAB), Electronic Arts (EA), BP (BP), Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Hi-Crush (HCLP), Ralph Lauren (RL) and Tableau Software (DATA) report. General Motors (GM), Eli Lilly (LLY), Spotify (SPOT), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Take-Two Interactive (TTWO), Regeneron (REGN), Humana (HUM), Boston Scientific (BSX), GoPro (GPRO), Match Group (MTCH), Zynga (ZNGA), FireEye (FEYE), and Sonos (SONO) report Wednesday. Thursday sees Total (TOT),Twitter (TWTR), Grubhub (GRUB), Expedia (EXPE), Yum! Brands (YUM), Dunkin Brands (DNKN), Philip Morris (PM), News Corp (NWSA), Kellogg (K), Mattel (MAT), Skechers (SKX), Tyson Foods (TSN), Tapestry (TPR), and World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) report. Friday brings us Arconic (ARNC), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), Phillips 66 (PSX), and Hasbro (HAS).
-comment section below data-
Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar
Last Week’s Big Stories
The Week That Was – Last Weeks Recap
Earnings
Stock Markets
Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*
Which Stocks Moved US ETF’s Last Week
US Stock Indices Performance
S&P 500 
Apple $AAPL
Amazon $AMZN
Fixed Interest
10 Year Treasury Note
Energy and Commodities
US Crude Oil (WTI) 
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub) 
Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
Currency Markets
Australian Dollar (AUDUSD) 
New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD) 
Canadian Dollar (USDCAD) 
Euro (EURUSD) 
EuroPound (EURGBP) 
Japanese Yen (USDJPY) 
Mexican Peso (USDMXN) 
Turkish Lire (USDTRY) 
Bitcoin 
The Week Ahead
Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week
Mon Feb 4 2019
- All Day Holiday South Korea – Seollal (New Year’s Day by the lunar)
- All Day Holiday China – Spring Festival
- Holiday Hong Kong – Lunar New Year’s Eve – Early close at 12:00
- Holiday Singapore – Chinese New Year – Early close at 12:10
- 03:00 EUR ECB’s Mersch Speaks
- 04:30 GBP Construction PMI (Jan)
- 04:30 EUR Sentix Investor Confidence (Feb)
- 05:00 EUR Italian CPI (MoM) (Jan)
- 05:00 EUR PPI (MoM) (Dec)
- 08:30 USD Payrolls Benchmark
- 09:45 USD ISM – NY Business Conditions
- 10:00 USD Cap Goods Ship Non Defense Ex Air (MoM)
- 10:00 USD CB Employment Trends Index (Jan)
- 10:00 USD Factory Orders (MoM) (Nov)
- 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
- Tentative USD Loan Officer Survey
- 16:30 AUD AIG Services Index (Jan)
- 19:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Jan)
- 19:30 USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks
- 19:30 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
- 19:30 AUD Trade Balance (Dec)
- 22:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (Feb) 1
- 22:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
Tues Feb 5 2019
- All Day Holiday Hong Kong – Lunar New Year
- All Day Holiday South Korea – Seollal (New Year’s Day by the lunar)
- All Day Holiday Singapore – Chinese New Year
- All Day Holiday China – Spring Festival
- 03:15 EUR Spanish Services PMI (Jan)
- 03:45 EUR Italian Services PMI (Jan)
- 03:50 EUR French Markit Composite PMI (Jan)
- 03:50 EUR French Services PMI (Jan)
- 03:55 EUR German Composite PMI (Jan)
- 03:55 EUR German Services PMI (Jan)
- 04:00 EUR Spanish Consumer Confidence
- 04:00 EUR Markit Composite PMI (Jan)
- 04:00 EUR Services PMI (Jan)
- 04:30 GBP Services PMI (Jan)
- 05:00 EUR Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
- 08:30 CAD Trade Balance (Dec)
- 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM) (YoY)
- 09:45 USD Markit Composite PMI (Jan)
- 09:45 USD Services PMI (Jan)
- Tentative USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
- 10:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
- 13:00 USD 3-Year Note Auction
- 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
- 20:30 AUD RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
Wed Feb 6 2019
- All Day Holiday Hong Kong – Lunar New Year
- All Day Holiday South Korea – Seollal (New Year’s Day by the lunar)
- All Day Holiday Singapore – Chinese New Year
- All Day Holiday New Zealand – Waitangi Day
- All Day Holiday China – Spring Festival
- 02:00 EUR German Factory Orders (MoM) (Dec)
- 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
- 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
- 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
- 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index
- 08:30 USD Building Permits
- Tentative USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM)
- Tentative USD GDP (QoQ)
- Tentative USD Goods Trade Balance
- Tentative USD Housing Starts
- 08:30 USD Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q4)
- Tentative USD PCE Prices
- Tentative USD Retail Sales (MoM)
- Tentative USD Trade Balance (Nov)
- 08:30 USD Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q4)
- 08:30 CAD Building Permits (MoM) (Dec)
- 08:35 CAD BoC Gov Council Member Lane Speaks
- Tentative NZD GlobalDairyTrade Price Index
- 10:00 CAD Ivey PMI n.s.a (Jan)
- 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
- 13:00 USD 10-Year Note Auction
- 14:00 USD Federal Budget Balance
- 16:30 AUD AIG Construction Index (Jan)
- 16:45 NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (Q4)
- 18:05 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
- 19:00 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
- 19:30 AUD NAB Quarterly Business Confidence
Thur Feb 7 2019
- All Day Holiday Hong Kong – Lunar New Year
- All Day Holiday China – Spring Festival
- 00:00 JPY Leading Index (MoM) (Dec)
- 02:00 EUR German Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec)
- 02:45 EUR French Industrial Investments (Q1)
- 02:45 EUR French Trade Balance (Dec)
- 03:00 EUR Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec)
- 03:30 GBP Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (Jan)
- 04:00 EUR Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
- 04:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
- 05:00 EUR EU Economic Forecasts
- 07:00 GBP BoE Inflation Report
- 07:00 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision (Feb)
- 07:00 GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
- 07:15 EUR ECB’s Mersch Speaks 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg
- 09:30 USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
- 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
- 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
- 13:00 USD 30-Year Bond Auction
- 15:00 USD Consumer Credit (Dec)
- 18:50 JPY Adjusted Current Account 1
- 19:30 USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
- 19:30 AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
- 19:30 HKD Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
Fri Feb 8 2019
- All Day Holiday China – Spring Festival
- 00:00 JPY Economy Watchers Current Index (Jan)
- 02:00 EUR German Trade Balance (Dec)
- 02:45 EUR French Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec)
- 02:45 EUR French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q4)
- 04:00 EUR Italian Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec)
- 08:15 CAD Housing Starts (Jan)
- 08:30 CAD Employment Change (Jan)
- 08:30 CAD Unemployment Rate (Jan)
- 10:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Dec)
- 12:00 USD WASDE Report
- 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Rig Count
- 15:30 GBP CFTC speculative net positions
Notable Earnings Reports This Week
*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available
Monday Feb 4
Before Open
- ALEXION PHARMA ALXN
- CLOROX CO CLX
- JOHNSON OUTDOOR JOUT
- MTS SYSTEMS MTSC
- ON SEMICON CORP ON
- SYSCO CORP SYY
- PANASONIC CORP PCRFY
After Market Close
- ALPHABET INC-A GOOGL
- BEAZER HOMES BZH
- CABOT CORP CBT
- GILEAD SCIENCES GILD
- HARMONIC INC HLIT
- LEGG MASON INC LM
- LEGGETT & PLATT LEG
- LUMINEX CORP LMNX
- SEAGATE TECH STX
Tuesday Feb 5
Before Open
- ARAMARK HOLDING ARMK
- ARCHER DANIELS ADM
- ARRAY BIOPHARMA ARRY
- BP PLC BP
- EMERSON ELEC CO EMR
- ESTEE LAUDER EL
- INFINEON TECH IFNNY
- MITSUBIS CP-ADR MSBHY
- PITNEY BOWES IN PBI
- RALPH LAUREN CP RL
- SOFTBANK CP SFTBY
- VIACOM INC-B VIAB
- VISHAY INTERTEC VSH
- SUZUKI MOTOR CP SZKMY
After Close
- ALLSTATE CORP ALL
- ANADARKO PETROL APC
- BROOKS AUTOMATN BRKS
- CHUBB LTD CB
- CONTAINER STORE TCS
- DISNEY WALT DIS
- ELECTR ARTS INC EA
- HI-CRUSH PTNRS HCLP
- MICROCHIP TECH MCHP
- MYRIAD GENETICS MYGN
- SHUTTERFLY INC SFLY
- SKYWORKS SOLUTN SWKS
- SNAP INC SNAP
Wednesday Feb 6
Before Open
- BOSTON SCIENTIF BSX
- BRINKS CO THE BCO
- CARLSBERG A/S CABGY
- CARLYLE GROUP CG
- COGNIZANT TECH CTSH
- CUMMINS INC CMI
- FIRST DATA CORP FDC
- GENERAL MOTORS GM
- GLAXOSMITHKLINE GSK
- HUMANA INC NEW HUM
- LILLY ELI & CO LLY
- NY TIMES A NYT
- PEABODY ENERGY BTU
- REGENERON PHARM REGN
- SPOTIFY TECH SA SPOT
- TAKE-TWO INTER TTWO
- DASSAULT SY-ADR DASTY
After Close
- CHIPOTLE MEXICN CMG
- EMCORE CORP EMKR
- FIREEYE INC FEYE
- GOPRO INC-A GPRO
- IROBOT CORP IRBT
- MATCH GROUP INC MTCH
- METLIFE INC MET
- NATL OILWELL VR NOV
- NETGEAR INC NTGR
- O REILLY AUTO ORLY
- PRUDENTIAL FINL PRU
- SONOS INC SONO
- TARO PHARMA IND TARO
- VALVOLINE INC VVV
- ZYNGA INC ZNGA
Thursday Feb 7
Before Open
- ARCELOR MITTAL MT CARDINAL HEALTH CAH CONSOL ENERGY CEIX DUNKIN BRANDS DNKN FIAT CHRYSLER FCAU GRUBHUB INC GRUB INTERCONTNTLEXC ICE KELLOGG CO K LCI INDUSTRIES LCII MARATHON PETROL MPC NORSK HYDRO ADR NHYDY ORION ENERGY SY OESX PATTERSON-UTI PTEN PENSKE AUTO GRP PAG PHILIP MORRIS PM PRESTIGE BRANDS PBH TAPESTRY INC TPR TATA MOTORS-ADR TTM T-MOBILE US INC TMUS TWITTER INC TWTR TOTAL TOT TYSON FOODS A TSN WORLD WRESTLING WWE YUM! BRANDS INC YUM ZURICH INSUR GP ZURVY FUJIFILM HLDGS FUJIY SOCIETE GENL FR SCGLY
After Close
- CAPSTONE TURBIN CPST CARLISLE COS IN CSL CHARLES&COLVARD CTHR COLUMBIA SPORTS COLM EXPEDIA INC EXPE FISERV INC FISV IAC/INTERACTIV IAC LIGAND PHARMA-B LGND LIONS GATE ETMT LGF.A LOREAL CO-ADR LRLCY MATTEL INC MAT MOHAWK INDS INC MHK NEWS CORP NEW-A NWSA NUANCE COMM INC NUAN PIXELWORKS INC PXLW SKECHERS USA-A SKX SOLARWINDS CORP SWI VERISIGN INC VRSN WESTERN UNION WU
Friday Feb 8
Before Open
- ARCONIC INC ARNC AVISTA CORP AVA BROOKFIELD BUS BBU BUCKEYE PARTNRS BPL CAE INC CAE CBOE HOLDINGS CBOE CLEVELAND-CLIFF CLF COTY INC COTY ESSENT GROUP ESNT EURONET WORLDWD EEFT EXELON CORP EXC GOODYEAR TIRE GT GRAFTECH INTL EAF HASBRO INC HAS IGM FINL INC IGM IMMUNOGEN INC IMGN OLYMPUS CORP OCPNY PDVWIRELESS INC PDVW PHILLIPS 66 PSX PHILLIPS 66 PTR PSXP RADIAN GRP INC RDN RENESAS ELECTRN RNECY REWALK ROBOTICS RWLK TEEKAY OFFSHORE TOO UNIVAR INC UNVR VALENER INC VNR VENTAS INC VTR
After Close
- CAMECO CORP CCJ CAMECO CORP-TS CCO
For More Earnings and estimates visit Morningstar Earnings Here
Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.
Trade Smart!