Market Weekly: Dec 31 2018 – Jan 6 2019

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 Happy New Year Trading Places

FEAR NOT Brave Investors :

Happy New Year

Chaos, Trade Wars, Shutdowns and Trump

Groundhog day as market turmoil picked up fueled by the same themes. The weight of record margin debt, fear and end of year liquidity saw the S&P 500 have the worse ever Christmas Eve and then bounce back with the largest Dow point gain ever BUT perspective, percentage moves are what is relelvant. Since followed the worse week since August 2011 and the Dow and Nasdaq the worse since 2008. The US government shutdown continues, the trade war continues and there have been at best confusing economic data. The chaos politically, violent market action and thin liquidity do not make for a safe setting. Be careful, have a great New Year and come back refreshed.

Natural gas markets followed crude down and has no given back ALL the move from 3.32 to 4.75 after record DCOT longs. Another example of a market all the one way, just like Crude and SPX at the top. Be very aware of the herd, even more so in these high speed markets and data analysis. Know your technical levels, know your fundamaental and geopolitical rationales. Make your own decisions and take responsibility.

Global markets remain under pressure as both the ECB and Fed have officially ended it’s QE programme and the world is soaked in unproductive debt. What is the big move from here to avoid the rubber meeting the road?

Watch weather, risk, skews and biases. Remember you don’t have to be in a trade; We see still have the EU budget to watch in Italy, the Marcon mess, the Brexit bungle and U.S. politics making for a real life black comedy. Emerging markets continue to overhang, particularly the Fragile 5 and Argentina. Stay alert, expect the unexpected.

If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it.  Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

The week ahead will be distorted with the US government shutdown and the blame game and name calling will get loader. We get to see PMI’s from all over the world and then the first Friday of 2019 has the December jobs report and an unprecedented panel of Federal Reserve leadership with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell with former fed chairs Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke at an economics conference Friday morning.

Focus on your self and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have China and the wars. 

Earnings wise we have just a handful out at the end of the week. Time to reflect on the affect of Tariffs and the Chinese slowdown impact on demand and increasing costs. Higher raw materials costs, wages and interest rates are hanging over margin and earnings forecasts.

Happy New Year From Everyone at Traders Community

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Italy CDS
Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week’s Big Stories

The Week That Was – Last Weeks Recap


Stock Markets

Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

 MW Top 5 Stocks 12 28 18

 Which Stocks Moved US ETF’s Last Week

 MW Top 5 ETF Stocks 12 28 18

 US Stock Indices Performance

 MW US Perf 12 28 18

  S&P 500

 SPX W 12 28 10

  Apple $AAPL

 MW AAPL W 12 28 18

Amazon $AMZN 

MW AMZN W 12 28 18 


Fixed Interest

10 Year Treasury Note

 MW TNX W 12 28 18

Energy and Commodities

US Crude Oil (WTI)

 MW WTI W 12 28 18

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

 MW NG W 12 28 18

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

  MW BDI W 12 28 18

Currency Markets

 Australian Dollar (AUDUSD) 

 MW AUD W 12 28 18

 New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

MW NZD W 12 28 18 

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

 MW CAD W 12 28 18


 MW EUR W 12 28 18

EuroPound (EURGBP)

MW EURGBP D 12 28 18 

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

 MW JPY W 12 28 18

 Argentine Peso (USARS)

 MW ARS D 12 28 18

Turkish Lire (USDTRY)

 MW TRY D 12 28 18


  MW BTC W 12 28 18

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Data that could be delayed by the US Government Shutdown

via @Yogi_Chan

Mon Dec 31

  • All Day Holiday Italy – National Leave
  • All Day Holiday Japan – Exchange Holiday
  • All Day Holiday Russia – New Year’s Eve
  • All Day Holiday South Korea – End of year
  • All Day Holiday Germany – New Year’s Eve
  • All Day Holiday Brazil – Bank Holiday
  • Holiday Hong Kong – New Year’s Eve – Early close at 12:00
  • Holiday United Kingdom – New Year’s Eve – Early close at 12:30
  • Holiday Singapore – New Year’s Day – Early close at 12:35
  • Holiday New Zealand – New Year’s Eve – Early close at 12:45
  • Holiday France – New Year’s Eve – Early close at 14:05
  • Holiday Australia – Last day of the year – Early close at 14:10
  • 10:00 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 10:00 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
  • 10:30 USD Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Dec)
  • 11:30 USD 52-Week Bill Auction
  • 19:00 KRW Trade Balance (Dec) 

Tues Jan 1

  • All Day Holiday – New Year’s Day Incl: Australia – Canada – France – Hong Kong – South Korea – Singapore – United Kingdom –  Switzerland – New Zealand – Spain – Brazil – China – Japan – Italy – Russia – Germany – South Africa – United States
  • 16:30 AUD AIG Manufacturing Index (Nov)
  • 19:00 SGD GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 20:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 

Wed Jan 2

  • All Day Holiday Switzerland – Berchtold’s Day
  • All Day Holiday New Zealand – Day After New Year’s
  • All Day Holiday Russia – New Year’s Day
  • 00:30 AUD Commodity Prices (YoY)
  • 03:15 EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
  • 03:45 EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
  • 03:50 EUR French Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
  • 03:55 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
  • 04:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 
  • 04:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM) (YoY)
  • 09:30 CAD RBC Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
  • Tentative NZD GlobalDairyTrade Price Index
  • 09:45 USD Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
  • 10:30 USD Dallas Fed Services Revenues (Dec)
  • 10:30 USD Texas Services Sector Outlook (Dec)
  • 19:00 AUD MI Inflation Gauge (MoM)

Thur Jan 3

  • 04:30 GBP Construction PMI (Dec)
  • 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index
  • 07:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (Dec)
  • 08:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Dec)
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
  • 09:45 USD ISM – NY Business Conditions (Dec)
  • 10:00 USD Construction Spending (MoM) (Nov)
  • 10:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
  • Tentative USD New Home Sales (Nov)
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
  • 15:30 USD Total Vehicle Sales
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 19:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
  • 19:30 HKD Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
  • 20:45 CNY Caixin Services PMI (Dec) 

Fri Jan 4

  • 02:00 GBP Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Dec)
  • 02:45 EUR French CPI (MoM)
  • 03:15 EUR Spanish Services PMI (Dec)
  • 03:45 EUR Italian Services PMI (Dec)
  • 03:50 EUR French Markit Composite PMI (Dec)
  • 03:50 EUR French Services PMI (Dec)
  • 03:55 EUR German Composite PMI (Dec)
  • 03:55 EUR German Services PMI (Dec) 
  • 03:55 EUR German Unemployment Report (Dec)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian CPI (MoM) (Dec) 
  • 04:00 EUR Markit Composite PMI (Dec)
  • 04:00 EUR Services PMI (Dec)
  • 04:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals (Nov)
  • 04:30 GBP Services PMI (Dec)
  • 05:00 EUR CPI (YoY) (Dec)
  • 05:00 EUR PPI (MoM) (Nov) 
  • 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Dec)
  • 08:30 USD Average Weekly Hours (Dec)
  • 08:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec) 
  • 08:30 USD Participation Rate (Dec)
  • 08:30 USD U6 Unemployment Rate (Dec) 
  • 08:30 USD Unemployment Rate (Dec)
  • 08:30 CAD Employment Report (Dec)
  • 08:30 CAD IPPI (MoM) (Nov)
  • 09:45 USD Markit Composite PMI (Dec) 
  • 09:45 USD Services PMI (Dec)
  • 10:15 USD Fed Chair Powell, Bernanke, Yellen Speaks
  • 10:15 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
  • 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 
  • 11:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories  
  • 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil and Gas Rig Count
  • 13:30 USD FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
  • 13:30 USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks


Notable Earnings Reports This Week

*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available

Monday Dec 31

Before Open

After Close

Tuesday Jan 1

Before Open

After Close

Wednesday Jan 2

Before Open

After Close

Thursday Jan 3

Before Open


After Close


Friday Jan 4

Before Open


After Close

  • Nil

Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!  

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