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FEAR NOT Brave Investors :
OPEC, G20, Trade Wars, and Weather
This week again was about volatilty in the energy markets, with Crude oil breaking $50 WTI and $60 Brent and a natural gas short squeeze on expiration, algorithims were playing havoc across the complex. Oil heads into a week with OPEC and a huge put skew and bearish template after crashing near $27 in quick time. The oil price moving forward will be front and center with the U.S. oil and gas sector vulnerable at these prices, debt covenants, wage growth all impact the US economy and as such the 2008/9 scenario is dangerously in play. Natural gas for its part is about weather, production and storage.
This weekend we have the G 20 summit with all it’s sideshows, including Brexit, Oil, Ukraine, Saudi Arabia and Trade Wars. With Powell apparently going with a more dovish tone this week and the eternal hope of a China trade deal, the US markets rally iedinto the summit on hope that all will be fixed.
Watch weather, risk, skews and biases. Remember you don’t have to be in a trade! We see mayhem with Brexit and those emerging markets continue to overhang, particularly the Fragile 5 and Argentina (host of the G 20 no less). Stay alert, expect the unexpected.
If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.
The week ahead will focus on the G-20 outcome and where China and the U.S. are headed on trade. We have the RBA announcement, BoE’s Carney testifying on the Brexit risks, Italy and back in the U.S. we start with ISM and end with tthe trade and jobs reports.
President Donald Trump designated Wednesday as a national day of mourning for Former President George HW Bush , the New York Stock Exchange said markets would close on that day, in keeping with longstanding tradition.
Earnings wise we are in the crumbs of the reporting season. Continue to note the affect of Tariffs and the Chinese slowdown impact on demand and increasing costs. Higher raw materials costs, wages and interest rates are hanging over margin and earnings forecasts. Earnings last week included
Earnings last week included Jinko Solar, Box, Salesforce.com (CRM) and Splunk. This week we have Autozone, Broadcom, Coupa Software, Dollar General, Five Below, HD Supply, Kroger, Lululemon Athletica and Toll Brothers.
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Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar
Last Week’s Big Stories
- U.S. Oil Rigs Rise as Canadian Rigs Fall With Record Production
- Floyd Mayweather and DJ Khaled Charged By SEC Over Cryptocurrency ICO Fraud
- EIA Reports -59 Bcf Draw in Natural Gas Inventories
- Fed Chair Powell Dovish Tone Sends Stockmarket Soaring, Hits US Dollar
- EIA Reports Crude Oil Storage Build With Gasoline Draw
- Russia Seizes Ukraine Naval Ships in Act of War
The Week That Was – Last Weeks Recap
Earnings Reports
- Machine Learning Firm Splunk Earnings Beat, Raise Guidance
- Cloud Storage Drives BOX To Record Revenue
- Salesforce Reports Higher Earnings and Revenue Growth With Mulesoft Boost
- Jinko Solar Beats Earnings Forecasts Higher Solar Panel Production
Stock Markets
Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*
Biggest US Stock ETF Influencers Last Week
US Stock Indices Performance
S&P 500
Apple $AAPL
Amazon $AMZN
Fixed Interest
10 Year Treasury Note
Energy and Commodities
US Crude Oil (WTI)
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
Currency Markets
Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)
New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)
Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)
Euro (EURUSD)
EuroPound (EURGBP)
Japanese Yen (USDJPY)
Argentine Peso (USARS)
Turkish Lire (USDTRY)
Bitcoin
The Week Ahead
Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week
Mon Dec 3
- 00:30 AUD Commodity Prices (YoY)
- 03:45 EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
- 03:50 EUR French Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
- 03:55 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
- 04:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
- 04:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
- 06:30 USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
- 08:00 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
- 09:15 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
- 09:30 CAD RBC Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
- 09:45 USD Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
- 10:00 USD Construction Spending (MoM) (Oct)
- 10:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
- 10:30 USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
- 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
- 12:30 GBP BoE MPC Member Haldane Speaks
- 13:00 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
- 15:30 USD All Car and Atruck Sales
- 19:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Nov)
- 19:30 AUD Current Account (Q3)
- 22:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
Tues Dec 4
- 02:45 EUR French Government Budget Balance (Oct)
- 04:15 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
- 04:30 GBP Construction PMI (Nov)
- 05:00 EUR PPI (YoY) (Oct)
- 08:30 CAD Labor Productivity (QoQ) (Q3)
- 08:55 USD Redbook (YoY) (MoM)
- 09:45 USD ISM – NY Business Conditions (Nov)
- Tentative NZD GlobalDairyTrade Price Index
- USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
- 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
- 13:00 GBP MPC Member Vlieghe Speaks
- 13:00 USD 52-Week Bill Auction
- 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
- 16:30 AUD AIG Services Index (Nov)
- 19:30 AUD GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
- 20:45 CNY Caixin Services PMI (Nov)
Wed Dec 5
- US Stock and Bond Markets Closed President GHW Bush Day of Mourning
- 03:30 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
- 03:45 EUR Italian Services PMI (Nov)
- 03:50 EUR French Markit Composite PMI (Nov)
- 03:50 EUR French Services PMI (Nov)
- 03:55 EUR German Composite PMI (Nov)
- 03:55 EUR German Services PMI (Nov)
- 04:00 EUR Markit Composite PMI (Nov)
- 04:00 EUR Services PMI (Nov)
- 04:30 GBP BoE FPC Meeting Minutes
- 04:30 GBP Services PMI (Nov)
- 05:00 EUR Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
- 07:00 US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 07:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
- 07:00 US MBA Purchase Index
- 10:00 CAD BoC Rate Statement, Interest Rate Decision
- 10:15 USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies (POSTPONED)
- 14:00 USD Beige Book
- 18:00 JPY Reuters Tankan Index
- 19:30 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
- 19:30 AUD Trade Balance (Oct)
- 20:15 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
Thur Dec 6
- 02:00 EUR German Factory Orders (MoM) (Oct)
- 04:05 AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
- 05:00 GBP MPC Member Ramsden Speaks
- Tentative USD OPEC Meeting
- 07:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts (Nov)
- 08:15 CAD Housing Starts (Nov)
- 08:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Nov)
- 08:30 USD Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3)
- 08:30 USD Trade Balance
- 08:30 CAD Trade Balance (Oct)
- 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
- 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
- 08:35 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
- 09:45 USD Markit Composite PMI (Nov)
- 09:45 USD Services PMI (Nov)
- 10:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
- 10:00 USD Cap Goods Ship Non Defense Ex Air (MoM)
- 10:00 USD Factory Orders (MoM) (Oct)
- 10:00 CAD Ivey PMI n.s.a (Nov)
- 11:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
- 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
- 12:15 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
- 16:30 AUD AIG Construction Index (Nov)
- 18:30 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
- 18:45 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Fri Dec 7
- 02:00 EUR German Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct)
- 02:45 EUR French Current Account
- 02:45 EUR French Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct)
- 02:45 EUR French Trade Balance (Oct)
- 03:00 CNY FX Reserves (USD)
- 04:00 EUR Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct)
- 04:30 GBP Inflation Expectations
- 05:00 EUR Employment Change (QoQ) (Q3)
- 05:00 EUR GDP (YoY) (Q3)
- 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Nov)
- 08:30 USD Average Weekly Hours (Nov)
- 08:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)
- 08:30 USD Participation Rate (Nov)
- 08:30 USD U6 Unemployment Rate (Nov)
- 08:30 USD Unemployment Rate (Nov)
- 08:30 CAD Employment Change (Nov)
- 08:30 CAD Unemployment Rate (Nov)
- 10:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec)
- 10:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Oct)
- 11:00 USD Natural Gas Storage
- 12:00 USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
- 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
- 15:00 USD Consumer Credit (Oct)
- 15:30 CFTC Speculative net positions
Notable Earnings Reports This Week
*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available
Monday Dec 3
Before Open
- FINISAR CORP FNSR HEXINDAI INC HX PEOPLE CORP PEO RMR GROUP INC RMR
After Close
- COUPA SOFTWARE COUP MESA AIR GROUP MESA SMARTSHEET INC SMAR
Tuesday Dec 4
Before Open
- AUTOZONE INC AZO AVAYA HOLDINGS AVYA BANK MONTL-TS BMO BANK MONTREAL BMO BARNES NOB EDUC BNED CHRISTOPHER&BNK CBK CONNS INC CONN DOLLAR GENERAL DG DONALDSON CO DCI EMCORE CORP EMKR GMS INC GMS HD SUPPLY HLDGS HDS MOVADO GRP INC MOV SECOO HOLDING SECO
After Close
- AT HOME GRP INC HOME GUIDEWIRE SFTWR GWRE HEALTHEQUITY HQY HEWLETT PKD ENT HPE IDT CORP-CL B IDT KEWAUNEE SCIENT KEQU MARVELL TECH GP MRVL MONGODB INC MDB OLLIES BGN OUTL OLLI RESTORATION HDW RH TOLL BROTHERS TOL ZSCALER INC ZS
Wednesday Dec 5
Before Open
- AMER EAGLE OUTF AEO BROWN FORMAN B BF.B BROWN-FORMAN -A BF.A G-III APPAREL GIII HUDSONS BAY CO HBC INSPIRED ENTMNT INSE KLX ENERGY SVCS KLXE LANDS END INC LE LAURENTIAN BK LB MOMO INC -ADR MOMO NATL BK CDA NTIOF NATL BK CDA-TS NA ROOTS CORP ROO SECUREWORKS CP SCWX WILEY (JOHN) A JW.A WILEY (JOHN)-B JW.B
After Close
- BLOCK H & R HRB CLOUDERA INC CLDR EVERTZ TECH LTD ET FIVE BELOW INC FIVE GREIF BROS-CL B GEF.B GREIF INC GEF KORN/FERRY INTL KFY LULULEMON ATHLT LULU MITCHAM INDS MIND OKTA INC OKTA STAR GROUP LP SGU SYNOPSYS INC SNPS UTD NATURAL FDS UNFI VERINT SYSTEMS VRNT
Thursday Dec 6
Before Open
- CHILDRENS PLACE PLCE DOLLARAMA INC DOL DULUTH HOLDINGS DLTH FERRELLGAS -LP FGP GENESCO INC GCO HOOKER FURNITUR HOFT HOVNANIAN ENTRP HOV KROGER CO KR LIQUIDITY SVCS LQDT METHODE ELECT-A MEI MICHAELS COS MIK PATTERSON COS PDCO SIGNET JEWELERS SIG THOR INDS INC THO TORO CO TTC
After Close
- AM OUTDOOR BRND AOBC BLUE BIRD CORP BLBD BROADCOM INC AVGO COOPER COS COO DOCUSIGN INC DOCU DOMO INC DOMO GOOD TIMES REST GTIM SCIENCE APP INT SAIC ULTA BEAUTY INC ULTA ZUMIEZ INC ZUMZ
Friday Dec 7
Before Open
- JOHNSON OUTDOOR JOUT VAIL RESORTS MTN
After Close
- Nil
Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.
Trade Smart!